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Math question Math question

03-09-2012 , 08:04 PM
Quick simple math question,

Last night I was playing in a 1/2 game where the following happened:

4 limpers, CO (loose passive) raises to $7, SB (Tight passive) re-raises to $22 leaving himself with about $60

in BB I wake up with JJ, after i flatted (which after discussing with friends is def. mistake), another loose player flats and MP limper shoves for $110, SB calls for 80.

IF my read is correct and SB always has KK+ and MP is spazzing out with ATC, how deep would MP have to be for my call to be profitable?

I folded btw, SB had AA and MP had 69ss, also early limper called as well for like 80 he had 45.
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03-09-2012 , 08:57 PM
I'm slightly confused about the action, but let's say there's $30 in the pot from people who have now folded.
SB has $80 and KK+
MP has $x and ATC
You cover.

When it comes around to you, there's $80*2 + $30 in the main pot and x-80 in the side pot. You're calling $x-22 here, for a $270 main pot and 2x-160 in the side pot.
Let's suppose you win the main pot with probability p and the side pot with probability q. Your equity is
p*270 + q*(2x-160)
and this needs to be greater than the amount you're calling to be profitable. So we have
p*270 + q(2x-160) > x-22.
An equity calculation shows that v. KK+ and ATC, you're 17.4% likely to win the main pot (p=0.174). As for the side pot, you're 77.6% against ATC (q=0.776). Plugging these in gives us x = $100.

Oh, and next time please post in the right forum - this thread should be for strat, not math.
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03-09-2012 , 09:07 PM
folding pre was soooooooo terribad after calling $22

nfi if i read action properly but you needed to win like 28% of time

$88 to call and win pot of like 2 million

can break it down to work out EV of call
did gorrila math but be suprised if it wasnt profitable to just get it in once you call the $22 thats prob only thing you should be asking is it better to flat the $22 or ship vs SB

Last edited by metski; 03-09-2012 at 09:25 PM.
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03-09-2012 , 10:43 PM
note im saying once we CALL the $22 only option is to stack

not saying when SB opened to $22 you should stack off.
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