Playing 2/3/5 8-handed and I'm not playing well. Bought in $500 and down to $360 playing too wide. Table was tighter than I expected and hitting the board, so I have opened or called and fold before showdown. Thus I've got fit or fold image. Starting to tighten up, but face questionable all-in

Preflop:
UTG limps (~850) he has 300 in 5s and 5 whites. His arm is blocking the whites, so I think he thinks I haven't seen them
UTG+1 raise to 10. Hero with 350 and black 99
HJ, BU, BB call
UTG raise to 110
Hero call
BU call with 1190 behind

I called expecting one caller behind and that I can set mine or shove flop with no broadway. Typical PF bets were 15-30 and 3bets were ~60 so this seemed like a squeeze. I didn't really consider pocket pairs. A lot of hands were limped so I wasn't too worried about a trap at that pointe. I don't 4bet because they were so deep

Flop:
3d3h2s
UTG allin. only moves his stacks of 5s in so I still think he's trying to look short
Hero sigh fold
BU fold

BU showed KK a few hands earlier so I don't think UTG is shoving light after PF call. So I make the fold. He seemed like a reg based on table talk. Normally, I would expect him to check AA/KK here and shove with no broadway and worse pocket pairs.

Snap fold pre

Yeah u can’t really set mine pre with these stack sizes.

Ur like 7.5:1 to flop a set so u can normally just use the rule of 10 which is that u need 10x or more of the bet in implied odds to justify the call preflop to set mine

Pre is fold or shove. If I played the way you did, I would have followed through and called on flop.

Thanks. I didn't want to shove pre and be dead on the flop, so I justified calling to myself saying "set mine" not knowing how to play it.

Ok this is what I am thinking after the fact. Should have been an easy call.

HRC agrees on shove pre. What range would you expect he is doing this with? HRC thinks 13% (77+,K9s+,QTs+JTs+,ATo+,KJo+,QJo), which seems wide. I get greater than 33% equity on flop if his range includes AK/AQ/KQ, but only overpairs takes me down to 10% equity.

If your using HRC node lock his range to a more reasonable range and resolve…it’s doubtful that he’s shoving that wide unless you have seen evidence of him jamming that wide… also make sure you are putting the caller on a reasonable live calling range and locking that in…

Agree .. you're not set mining here, you're 'safe Flopping' and GII. You're counting on both Players not having over-pairs and it's still (probably) a 70% chance that an over-card hits the Flop .. what are you going to do?

I can see someone saying that by flatting you are inviting in 'dead money' .. but it's really not dead money since you really aren't deep enough to get them to fold on the Flop three-ways. You have to rely on the other Player in the hand to force them out. Otherwise it's like 90+% that an over-card will hit the Board by the River and with two opponents in there that's a lot to 'miss'.

This is either shove or fold .. and probably fold 'a lot' of the time against a limp over-bet from UTG. Consider a live limp-over-bet from UTG that they are trying to make it hard for the first Player to just call and thus price in the second Player or they just have AK/AQ type of hand and want to take it down or GII HU by forcing the short stack to shove (and reopen the betting to them to also shove).

In order to set mine you need to profit at least 1000 and that's not possible with your remaining stack.

Good luck and have fun learning .. GL

UTG limp-rr after hiding his big chips and we're talking about shipping 99 pre?

This is absolutely not a spot to assume some kind of quasi-GTO range.

Agreed. I'm coming from MTTs live and online so new to cash. I was expecting wide ranges, but this table was really tight. His sizings seem crazy if he was trying to get value so I wanted to see if everyone thought this could be a bluff. But more like he was trying to induce a shove. I've moved on. Thanks all

When you do hit your set, most of the time you will get either folds or just one street of value. So set-mining is definitely -EV even when your stack is 10x the bet. Unless you're certain the hand is going multiway, I follow Dan Harrington's rule of thumb that you can profitably set-mine only when you have 25x the bet in your stack, and you're confident you won't get re-raised.

An early-position opponent who limp-re-raises pre has TT+, AK and mostly has QQ+, so this is a fold pre.

Snap-fold flop, no sigh here. On a rainbow flop with paired low cards multiway, a villain is almost never betting without a high pocket pair. If a villain is shoving with AK here, he's a whale, and you are going to make a lot of money from him in later hands.

These 2 paragraphs are inconsistent imo

How can he have mostly QQ+ and also believe that when u flop a set ur gonna get mostly folds or just 1 street of value?