Hero ($835)has a solid TAG image, close to LAG in that in the last couple orbits I have had solid holdings and have had perfect flatting hands preflop to raises(mid ppairs, etc). Table went from SH to full as the other table just broke up and hero has been able to take control of the table. Table is soft, very profitable.

Villain SB (~$750) is a regfish and very LAG when he has a lot of chips. I have noticed in the past when he has a lot of chips he is bluffing with medium/small bets, and bets huge when he has a very strong hand.

There is a button straddle of $5. 3 calls, hero has AK and raises to $35, Villain calls in the SB and the rest fold.

Pot: $85 Flop comes AQJ
villain checks, hero checks

Pretty good spot. We have TPTK/GS/BD FD. I like this spot as villain will donk worse hands OTT and it induces. Pot is already pretty huge given its a 1/2 game and we are super deep. The plan is to call down for the most part and allow him to bet/bluff worse. The backdoor spade draw is in the back of my head too. Ok?

Turn is the 4 and my situation gets really gros really fast.

Villain donks $200, hero???
Turn is a very good card and villain all the sudden changes my plans. The problem is I know he is betting $400 OTR, and most of the time we go unimproved in this spot. I think he hardly ever has air here, and he thinks of me as a good player that this flop smashes my range. The good news is the implied odds are there. I feel really gross folding, but I feel just as bad calling this bad LAG when its doubtful he's purely bluffing/has a pretty stong range (stronger than AK in almost all cases). Weird spot, hero?

Knowing villain will bet big otr its a good spot for you. You have TPTK,flush draw and a gutshot to the broadway. I'm happy to be in this spot. Call and hope to hit river/if he checks bet for thin value to try to win the pot or get value from a weaker hand.

Weird. I think it actually makes it harder to call because you have the AKss which removes a bunch of the weird flush draw spazziness that you beat. I think I fold. And I can't believe I'm saying that with 12 clean outs to the nuts. But I think you basically always need them and you might not get paid on 4 of them.

I'm usually not a "wait for a better spot" kinda guy. But are there other deep players? I think this is a marginal enough spot that shallowing stacks with other players that you would like to be deep with is a consideration.

Umm fold. Lol.
I dump this pretty easily.
We could be drawing to a chop with T. A spade is really the only thing we want to see OTR.

Based on your reads this is a super easy fold.
Even if a King comes and he shoves we can't call. Literally the only cards that improve our hand is a spade and a T. So we have 12 outs. He overbet the pot. We're not getting right odds to call lol.

are you calling a big river bet unimproved?

No, if your question is not a level.

I made a mistake in the OP guys, he bet $200

I hope not. That would be really really bad.

And fwiw I do stupid things like that all the time. And I have never seen the random bluffs that I always talk myself into them having sometimes here.

shove and hope he levels himself into thinking you slowplayed AA/QQ. and you still have equity against most of his range.

he could have jj/qq/aq/aj/qj/k10/kq/kj/q10/j10/44/a4 here basically right? i mean unless he has k10/set then you have plenty of outs, depending on his hand any 10/k/spade/ace

i mean calling and folding unimproved is pretty gross here, probably "the right play" but maybe he folds some of the bottom of his range here that beats you like aj/qj/a4 but like i said even when he calls you have outs.

Holy crap this has to be the fanciest play syndrome I have ever seen. Villain may fold QJ but thats the only FE I see me having, or a 50/50 chop vs AK. We have like no fold equity

And no, hes not donking KQ, KJ, Q10, here ever for that large. This is almost always a chop or a better hand, however we are deep. He raises JJ pre everytime, along with QQ and AQ

I assign a range of 44, k10, QJ, AJ, A4ss, or rarely AQ or AK as he doesn't limp these

Me no like shove. With reads from OP we have 0% fold equity. No way he's overbetting turn and folding to ship and we're like never ahead here. Even "bad lags" know not to bluff on an all broadway board.

I also don't like a call and c/f otr unimproved Just because even if he has 2p he's probably shipping OTR so if we hit anything but a spade we're not very comfortable calling.

I would fold I think...

The only semibluff I see is T9ss

pay4myschool: he was in sb but i agree much of my range in generous but i just like to stay optimistic lol. so anyways do you think villain will pay you off for the rest of it if a spade hits? if so then i call and hope to bink, if your answer is no then youre crushed by his range and need to just fold, which sounds ridiculuos with the strength of your hand but you just have to

lolpony: like i said i was being too optimistic, i just have a hard time folding such a strong hand in game, i can say all i want to yea i fold here but in reality i think i always at least peel the river card off and hope to bink.

Honestly I think shoving>calling. And I think he folds a little more often than just QJ. But I still think you just have to fold.

Going just with your range Pay4 we have 34% equity.
First thing - will he pay off if the spade or T comes?
Second thing - do you like variance?

Again, I'm all for folding here. I just think it's way too marginal. Especially when LLSNL'ers are super afraid of flushes. (Good chance you probably won't get paid off OTR imo)

how often do you fold this in game? i notice alot of times i type a response and its so easy to just type it but are u just snap folding this at the table? crying and folding it? or are you really calling? just curious to see if im the only one who goes through this when posting

or even the complete opposite. sometimes you type id jam here, we have equity blah blah blah he should fold here always blah blah blah but at the table you cant pull the trigger. does that make sense?

I dunno. Rarely in this type of situation. I'm pretty much a station though.

Heh I know what you mean there are definitely threads like that where after analyzing and reading responses I think fold but in game I'd call.

I think I fold this close to 100% in game though. I'd prolly tank for a minute or so to add up the maths and think of wtf his range could be. Def sigh folding though.

When I first posted this I thought of it as a simple call or fold scenario beacuse of the disappearance of FE. The only fe I saw us having is a marginally ahead weak QJ or a similar AK with a freeroll. IMO shoving is just simply a losing gamble/high variance -EV vs this lagfish.

ok just making sure i wasnt the only one out there lol.

so i just reread why OP didnt cbet flop and i understand where youre coming from. but is villain going to peel with those hands anyways? like 2nd pr + gutter or worse hands? if so then why arent we just betting the flop ourselves, maybe checking back the turn and letting him fire the river to go for 2 streets or even just go for 3 streets ourselves.

My thinking was hes dangerous and the pot is already huge to the flop. Plan was to allow him to spew while we are IP. Also I dont think I can get 3 streets of value when this smacks my range, with what is really a bluff catcher if the pot escalates on his part.

ok well then with your check behind line youre planning on going for 2 streets right? so where i play cbet flop and check turn line looks more bluffy then check flop line. may be different where you play. i just like to go for b/c/b or call river depending on if he fires the river himself after turn checks through

^^ yes 2 streets. I expect him to donk turns with any pair+GS because he likes to bet, and I wanted to pot control since the pot was 40BB pre. When he bet $200 it almost is always a very strong hand. Pair+GS, etc would probably be a $40-$50 bet or so from him.