The economy is a lot worse than what the government will have you believe.

Compared to Asia, Australia, Canada, or even Mexico, the U.S. economy is pretty much a joke right now and will continue to be for years to come.

The bad economy doesn't affect multimillionaires or billionaires, but it means fewer millionaires, and almost nobody that will play and gamble as if they have millions when they don't... compared to 2007 when plenty of people did that and then lost their homes to foreclosure and/or jobs.

+0

How much of the overall poker pie (dead money that is dropped into the poker economy) is contributed by very infrequent players (a handful of times a year) but who drop a ton of money at a time just playing absolutely degenerate? Is it considerable? I ask this because I have seen people come into the 5-10, 10-20 games in LA and just drop a ton almost like giving it away and i have never seen them again. For example, I saw a guy drop 20k in 10-20 in what seemed like less than an 1 hour.

$20K to someone that has $100K(a very decent roll for a winning 5/10 player) is 1/5 of his roll, but to someone making $1M a year(which puts him wayyyy below the big shots in Hollywood for eg.) that's a couple of days work...

danka

Many of these lastest postings argue the finer points of cash game win rates (and a tanked Amercian economy) -as expected from the thread title. Can a live mid-stakes grinder make $50k per year, $70k, how about $90k per year, more? Yes/no and maybe.

Can a mid stakes cash grinder ever expect to earn $300k or more? NO.

Tournament play is certainly different. However it also offers and oppportunity to earn more $. Without a total derail of this [cash win rate] thread, and without getting into the fundamental differences between cash & tournament play, suffice to say the ROR can be incredible.

Considering such things as, enjoyment level of poker, game opportunity, cash game wins rates, age -and what I want from life and what I vision for the future it only makes sence for me to become more active as a tournament player. I suspect many other mid stakes players are similar....

I *could* continue playing mainly cash games and can expect about the same win rates, from now until something changes, prolly years from now. Alternatively if I choose to invest more study and dedication to the art of Tournament play, and presumably become a better tourney player, then I potenially increase my opportunity to score life-changing money. Grinding mid, or even high stakes cash games is merly earning a salary. Investing a relatively modest amount of money ($30k), plus a lot of time, into more tournament play seems doable to any winning mid stakes player w/ aspirations to earn life changing money......

My shared philosophy (business strategy) for the day...enjoy

Good luck dealing with the soul crushing variance that comes along with mtts

I think the premise is "ONE TIME!"

I don't think this is actually true. Today, a rec gambler decides to sit down with $1000 and play some poker. That same person will sit down with $2000 if inflation has doubled his nominal income.

Think about it another way... The lowest stakes offered at my casino are 1/2. If they decided to open up a .50/1, I don't think the 5/10 game would suddenly get tougher. It's the mirror image of the same issue.

People want to play for some amount of money that's meaningful to them. If that number changes, they play for different stakes.

The only people who might not move up over time due to inflation are the ~0 EV regs.

The games won't magically morph, but over time, you should notice all games getting gradually easier due to looser money (although this does not take into account games getting harder due to changes in average player skill).

I agree with you, say if you make $50-80K a year playing a mixture of 2/5 5/10 cash, every year invest time and say $15-20K into MTTs, eventually you either don't ever hit a big score(which doesn't make your life significantly worse since you are still in the black with bills paid for..), or you score a nice 6-figures win that allows you to live better, move up, etc etc.

So if you make $70K/year and then lose $20K/year playing tourneys that won't affect your life? If you're 21 and live in your parents basement that may be true. If you're older, have a family/kids, want to save for the future...I'd say that's very significant. You're talking gambling away 25-30% of your income every year. If you had a square job and gambled away 25-30% of your income every year you'd be joining the quacks at GA. I'm not saying you can't make money playing tourneys but I think very few can do it and this is the pipe dream/glorified version of poker.

On top of all this, if you're losing $20K/year and then hit one $100K score within 5 years you are breaking even. It only appears to be life changing money at the time while in actuality you have won NOTHING! No different then being hooked up to an oxygen machine and playing slots every day till you hit a jackpot. You finally nail that $10K score and totally forget all the money your degenerate ass has put into that fun wheel of fortune machine. If you're going to play MTTs you should be playing online. Live tournaments are no way to earn a living.

That is my point exactly. And the very reason for sharing this view with others is because it might hit home....I suspect I'm not the only one in this rut.

I'm very comfortable playing low & mid stakes cash games (2/5, 5/10 and some 10/20) and I have accurate long term data to support my assertion as a "winning" player. I'm not a braggadocious person and have nothing to prove, but I am financially comfortable. No doubt making an investment towards more tournament play takes work, including $, time, effort, energy, a different study pattern and open to new learning, ect, ect....it all takes work, discpline,.....but the rewards can be larger than ALL of your lifetime earnings made sitting at a cash table. I have played about 27 largish tournaments so far, and I can't even remember how many smallish ones, hitting that score of several hundreds of thousands, or a million+ for someone w/ good money managment skills can set a person for retirement.

However, that said, I feel like I have hit somewhat of a plateau in my poker career because I don't have the BR to play high stakes full time, and if I stay at the cash game level of where I'm at now I can probably continue making a decent income, but never have the chance for life-changing earnings.

These are some good points, and I largely agree. I have my own opinion of "tournament players" and hate the thought of being one! LOL I play these type of players in cash games everyday, dreamers, scammers, home run gamblers, out of touch w/ reality, literallytoo stupid to fold, always hoping for that miracle suk out, don't underastand the fundamentals of the game, and on and on....I know exactly what you mean.

As I move forward and choose to invest more of my poker dollars into tournament play its with a disciplined business plan, backed by gobs of experience of playing on the felt. Just sharing my thoughts w/ other [cash] game players...

Tournaments are mostly unprofitable because of the opportunity cost of what you could be making in a cash game. The only ones worth playing are WSOP circuit main events and monthly 1-day $1,500 events at your local casino where 40+ seats are given away to random fish in games as low as 1-2 NL and 3-6 LHE.

So you want to embrace a much lower winrate and insanely high variance? That's not professional. Go play the lottery.

"investing" in Mtts is a joke as the prior posts indicate.

IMO all poker pros should do the limon thing of setting aside money to make investments that generate cashflow but take little or no time. That or invest in mutual funds.

Imo it's criminal for successful Vegas grinders to not invest in rental property (after buying a place to live in first obv) as soon as they have the extra cash, especially if they can get financing.

In case anyone cares, I personally own 4 vegas properties and am trying to get more.

Only if they're not putting in the hours ...

It's better to talk about hourlies than yearly earns. The hours people play vary wildly.

I say this as someone who thinks Limons thread is probably the best on 2p2

His word on this topic isnt the be all end all

2 factors he is missing

1)the hours he plays suck- he said he plays mostly during the day and mostly during the week
2)there are players who are much better than him-im not necessarily saying I am one of them either

great post
it really is amazing how many people who make damb good money don't invest it in any way-especially young single players with no kids

Limons post about investing young and creating multiple streams of income should be posted as a must read when joining 2+2. It is valuable beyond measure.

I know far too many grumbling old poker veterans who did not invest, did not prepare for the future and now have to work long hours with no benefits, while their straight guy counterparts are retiring in their late forties and early fifties from their first companies with a pension. These guys are relaxing, picking up a part time job, golfing, fishing and going to movies on a regular basis.

It doesnt have to be that way.

50k-80k seems low to me. i logged a measly ~350 hours this year and made ~$30,000 and i am far from an elite-level poker player. perhaps i wasn't bitten hard enough by the variance bug....

The only way to overcome the variance of tournament poker is play A LOT of them. Dabbling 15-20k each year, especially in tournaments with big enough buy-ins/fields to make a life-changing prize pool -- even if you're an excellent tournament player (which very few cash pros are) -- is basically just gambling.

You might as well say that you put 15-20k into gambling trifectas or something. You're not going to be playing enough to hit the long run. Arguably, most professional tournament players who follow the circuit may not be able to hit the long run of tournament poker.

It might be fun for some "ONE TIME" sweat opportunities, but shouldn't be part of a serious income plan.

You've just called Phil Ivey, Doyle Brunson, Vanessa Selbst, Daniel Negreanu, John Juanda, Phil Galfond, Greg Merson, and every other cash player who also plays tournaments "unprofessional".

Yeah, so you're the ultimate professional right?

Plenty of people just enjoy tournaments so they want to devote some of their poker time playing them, and if they make a big score great, if they don't they aren't financially too affected by it since they only use 20% of their cash winnings as opposed to being in makeup which describes a ton of even great tournament players.