Villain is a reg who sat down about 3 hours ago. I doubled him up immediately with AQ v QJ on QJxdd where he called my 3-bet pre oop for a big portion of his stack and then c/committed flop in a perfect squeeze spot. I then stacked him fairly quickly after with AA v ?? on a 9-high two-tone board where I 3-bet pre oop, led/called flop and crai turn. Then I doubled him up again (lol) when he called off 200 bbs with a naked 8-high fd multiway after I c/shipped against the field as pfr with Q-high fd (he binked an 8).

Hero is an out-of-towner who a couple of the regs know from other places. The hand before this hand, I 3-bet squeezed from the straddle, double barreled for about 2k total, got a deep nit to fold an overpair on the turn, and then "showed the bluff" at someone's request...

Pre (15)- Hero is the bb with 5k. 3 people limp, including villain in the CO (he has 4k), sb folds, hero makes it 110 with KQ. First guy folds, villain and button call.

Flop (344) K52r. Hero leads 200, villain calls, button folds.

Turn (744) 5 (badugi). Hero leads 500, villain calls.

River (1744) A. Hero???

Important read: villain has been bluff-catching throughout the hand/he was def behind on the turn. I was going to bet 1500ish on a brick river.

If you think you can get 3 streets on brick rivers then I see nothing wrong with the turn. I think you have to bet river, I wouldn't go crazy though. Maybe 700-800 range? Enough to where it looks like you could be bluffing.

I guess i'd want to know what percentage of pocket pairs you give him in this situation. Although it sounds like your putting him on Ax, it he has a pp a decent enough percentage of the time, then i think you c/c up to a decent sized bet.

Given the hand description and history, i don't see how a bet gets him off his hand and i think your beat more often than not.

As much as this villain sounds like a station, I think the ace is a bad card for to V-bet as I think Villain will perceive you to have more aces in your range than you actually do + what can you be bluffing with once you get to the river? I think I like a bet of about $450 and hope for a crying call.

c/c his 77

Fwiw, when the A hit the first thing I thought was fml, we chop now.

Interesting. With that piece of information, i might be more inclined to bet now as i was not considering KQ, or even Kx in his range. If it is, and given he appears to be a calling station, i think the scale tips towards betting and if so, i'd say around $1000-1200.

Don't blame you for that first thought. And for me the second thought is can I move him off the chop? Seems like worth a try.

Assuming your read is right and he doesn't have a five or a ******ed A too often then I would go for a c/r all in on the river. This gives him a chance to do something stupid and bluff or bet a pp as well as giving you a chance to move him off a chop. Worst case it goes check check and you win or chop.

Against a good thinking player I would just bet pot on the river and rep. the A to get him off a chop. I don't think that will work against this guy.

wow. for some reason I didn't realize we chop with worse kings now.

my first post makes no sense.

seems like based off notes on villain, he seems to play his stronger value range a little faster; and your table image seems pretty sick, thus i tend to weigh his range towards bluff catchers, etc... i think thats a given.

of course if river bricks we can V bet here, but A on river makes it a little tougher to get a decent V bet in.

if we are trying to get villain off chop i like nights recommendation of c/rai, its a sick play, i love it, and i think he fold abunch.

what do u guys think about overbet lead on the river?

bet river 2400-3000ish or soemthig liek that

This is an interesting decision. It has many similarities with another hand you posted where there could be a possible chop.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/11...oughts-965230/

If you are pretty confident he was not slow playing then a river bet of around 60 percent pot is good. Random kings make up a huge portion of his call down range and I think a river bet will make him fold these quite often.

Also, since you are out of position if you check you are putting the ball in his court, possibly allowing him to make the same play of betting you off a chop. If this happens you are now bluff catching often to win only half the pot.

If I were personally playing this hand I would probably be pretty concerned I was beat. However, you seem to have a very crazy dynamic going so the game is probably playing much looser than usual.

I think check calling would probably be the worst of the 3 options unless he somehow will go crazy with random bluffs(can he have many of these?) or will frequently raise river bets as a bluff.

someone does not like to chop

What random limping hands that contain a King are calling your raise in this spot? If you say he's a reg, does he not open KQ, KJ? Then, does he call a raise with KJ?

The ace is a horrible card here, and I honestly think if you check call here all the time, it's a leak.

I think the standard line here is check/fold against competent players. This is because hes never going to go for thin value with a King after calling two barrels, nor do many people turn made hands into a bluff. He's probably never betting 77-99 or whatever one pair hands he has, because they have showdown value. He can't expect a bluff to work on the river, because he almost never has any Aces in his range.....With the board pairing on the turn, almost all his 34 or A4 type hands are probably going to fold....if he even calls a raise with those hands.....

I don't like a check raise either.... You're basically turning the most likely best hand into a bluff, and only getting looked up by a random ace, and monsters that beat you. The board is way too dry for either of you to represent much other than exactly what you have.

ez overbet

I dislike c/c, as I doubt villain lacks the showdown value to check behind.

Unless villain was playing hero with A2s, he doesn't have an ace and we are ahead.

Bet/fold something manageable, something that can convince a bluffcatcher to legitimately call and be shocked when you turn up a marginally-better hand than his. 650-700 should do the trick.

How often will he bet a chop hand on the river when checked to? I agree chop hands are a huge part of his range, but if he's only betting worse or better on the river (and he won't fold better) our raise is of no immediate value. Thoughts on his river betting range/frequency?

He limped 2nd in from the CO. I think KT-KQ + all Kx suited combos are in his range. He calls my 11x because history tells him (QJ v AQ hand) that if he flops gin he's getting a double up.

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For those of you saying c/f, what hands in his range improved on the river? Again, I was really confident I was ahead on the turn/I couldn't wait to collect on my slagtard value before the A came...

Check/folding based upon how this hand played out is terribad. For me, it is a question of how much my villain will pay me off.

What hands are you going to get value from?

What hands are you trying to get paid off by? I know there are some but I don't really see him calling a bet with mid pocket pairs

Heh, I also missed that you're chopping with worse kings. I guess I like an overbet the best now.

If you think villain will bluff at the river if checked to, then check/call. If you think villain will pay us off because he thinks we are FOS, then bet. It is not unusual for a tilted villain to pay us off here with less than KQ if he believes we are just firing the river A in a triple barrel bluff.

But I say that check/fold is terribad because given our line and villain's line, we are always always good by the river.

K52r, villain calls. Villain can have Kx, 5x, 66-JJ, A2s, maybe even 43s.

When the turn is a 5 and villain calls, his range becomes mainly weaker kings, pocket pairs, and 43s. I doubt A2s sticks around for 2 barrels, even by a tilt case.

The river A does give 43s the best hand, but that is really it. The ace does not scare me because we have already bet all of the aces that we beat on thew turn out of the villain's range. If we believe villain will call us light on the river (which he may given that we really rep nothing except KK or 22 with 3 barrels here), then we should be betting to merge our range. If we believe that the villain will bet the river for us with a worse hand, then we should check.

But a decision to check/fold when we are well-ahead of the villain's range by the river? I think it makes no sense.

Do people really bluff the river in this spot? ever? on a rainbow board? With hands that have showdown value, when they were calling down the whole way???

the only hands that are betting the river, are his complete air hands, of which we've deduced that there really is none. If there was an air hand, it was probably ace high....