Quote:
Originally Posted by DGAF
How often will he bet a chop hand on the river when checked to? I agree chop hands are a huge part of his range, but if he's only betting worse or better on the river (and he won't fold better) our raise is of no immediate value. Thoughts on his river betting range/frequency?
From the description it sounds like he is just waiting to spazz out against you. I think he will bet a K almost all the time, as well as a lot of his smaller pairs if you check. He will bet an A all the time too. He probably expects you to bet a K or an A all the time on the river so a river check should get him to do some really stupid things.
This all stems from your read (that he would raise a 5 or fullhouse on the turn and that an A is pretty unlikely). I personally wouldn't even bother getting fancy against this guy and I think a 5 is definitely in his range here, but with your image and history I think it's a pretty good spot to do it. Also, if he has an A it is with a bad kicker and a c/r should get him to fold some of the time.
And finally, against players like this it's not the end of the world making a big mistake against them because the money is coming right back anyway (assuming you're gonna play with him in the future).