First let me set up the hand. Hero has been playing for about 20 minutes. Hero recently won a big hand getting it AI on the flop with KhQc on JcTc6c board against JJ. Hero raised PF and bet-3bet the flop and called a shove for not much more and hit a 9 on the turn which held up.

Otherwise, Hero has been playing aggressively and won several pots without going to showdown. Villain is a middle-aged (probably 45-50 year old) woman. Hero played one hand with villain, in which villain raised to $20 PF and cbet weakly for $25 OOP into a pot of about $60. Hero raised to $75 IP and took it down. Now on to the hand.

8-handed live 2/5

Hero (UTG): ~950
Villain (MP): Covers

Hero: Ac Ah

Hero raises UTG to $15.
Villain reraises in MP to $65.
Hero 4bets to $190, Villain calls.

Flop: Tc Qc Kh.

Hero (about $750 behind in a pot of ~$400): Check

Villain very quickly bets $500, and in the process makes a hand gesture like she wants to go all in. However, dealer decides she has already put in $500 and the bet stands.

Hero: ?

Dunno why your checking here, just bet out 200 into 400.

Are you b/f or b/c?

I guess I'd just ship over at this point... your 4bet was huge, flop shouldn't even matter

if she flopped a set, good for her

If the Villain had simply called the first preflop raise and the flop came J73, then I would say "if she flopped a set then good for her."

However, when the Villain raises and calls a 4-bet and the flop comes TQK, then the thinking should be "she more likely than not flopped a set.' If I ignore this realization, then "shame on me."

you are virtually never good against a range of hands that villain flats your 4bet with pre and follows through with a massive flop bet.

you can call if you like, but you need to suck out once again to win this hand too

Villian 3 bet range in MP flat 4 bet pretty strong. I tend to think middle aged women fairly tight / conservative, unless you have a tell otherwise and this early in the session you usually dont.

Weak C-bet once... Fumble here... tough to give her credit for making a move on you here. Pick a better spot IMO

I am committed here, so I would b/c, probably $200 or so, with the rest ott.

As played just ship, you can't fold with these SPRs.

6 AK combos vs up to 6 TT/QQ combos and maybe an occasional KK combo

For her to have AK here would suggest that this middle-aged woman was really aggressive and spewy.

I'd close my eyes and ship. it be a disaster we folded and she showed AK. It can't be too large a mistake to get it in if she floped a set with these SPRs

Fold she has QQ or KK vast majority of the time. She is not trying to fool you with the fumbling, she is scared to death your gonna suck out against her set. Middle aged ladies don't ship AK for 1000 dollars in 4 bet pots often, though they might call it off.

A good player does not get married to the chips in the pot. They are gone now. The question now is your risking 800 to win a pot of 2000 when your crushed over 90% of the time.

Honestly vs this villian aka nut peddlers who transcend their hands to everyone...


I check that flop and fold.

Lol flame on i kno pretty weak....but i doubt i ever see this villian do this with ak...this is qq-kk a huge percnt of the time.

I fold yawn...say thanku...move on

And what about suborn KQ combos? Are we ignoring those too?

Fold here, but I do not think it is easy or a given. Villian is not going to make a +pot sized bet with a set here very often. I actually think if this villian has any brain, they check back a set here, allowing hero who has been hyper aggressive (at least looks that way) to bet turn.

I fully expect villian to turn over either AK or KQ, but sets are certainly possible. I fold here because there is just not enough information to go on, and the flop if filthy. Villian could have anything from J10 to KK....

Sometimes. Hero has been super aggressive, 3betting on a DRAW...... Sometimes villians just want to take a stand and put an end to a table bully.

Her spewing with AK here is just as likely as her betting 500 into >400 pot with a set.

Pretty much the worst possible flop other than JQK. Against described V I am check/folding this flop to a PSB, there is almost no way she does this with AK when anyone with half a brain knows that most people's PF 4-bet range is JJ+ and AK. Then I would throw up in my mouth, grab something to eat, and come back.

Even if she had a hand like TT, JJ, or AK, she would have to be worried that you have QQ+ and most players are never folding any of those hands on this flop. Only a thinking player is folding AA here and with this SPR, you are either getting it in or folding, so take your pick.

i like the way you played this, except i would have made it $20 pre. and i really like the flop check given your description of the villain. this flop smacks her preflop 3-bet/call range. in my experience middle-aged women just aren't making a bet like this without a hand that beats you here. and if she has jacks or a-k here then she just made a good bet. telling her 'nice hand' after you lay this down is better than saying 'oops' when you get it in and she turns over three queens.

if u think she does this with AK then b/f

Board: Tc Qc Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.192% 46.57% 07.62% 5994 980.50 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 45.808% 38.19% 07.62% 4915 980.50 { AdAs, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, AdKd, AsKs, AdKc, AdKs, AsKc, AsKd }

if u think she can't do this with AK then c/f

Board: Tc Qc Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.146% 20.98% 07.16% 1454 496.50 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 71.854% 64.69% 07.16% 4483 496.50 { AdAs, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs }

Agreed that the question is whether she makes this play with AK. But if she does it's a bet/call (or check/call), not a bet/fold. You're getting about 1.5 to 1 (750 to win 1150), so you need 40%. Against a range of AK, AA, KK, TT, and a few combos of KQ, you're getting 48ish%.

If she doesn't spazz with AK, you're crushed.

he hasnt said this villains a regular, so how could he really know if she would do this with ak after 20 minutes? feels like a puke fold to me. villain sounds like qq or kk here to me.

I think this is a check fold. Even if she does this with ak, she won't play ak like this all the time but shed do it with kk or qq. This is one of the worst possible flops for u and it sucks to check fold but U gotta do it

This is an obvious all-in. You have AK and JJ whomped.

not at all, she colded hero

Just to show u why folding is prabably the best play: u need 39% equity to break even assuming she shoves turn and u call. U have 24% equity against a range of kk or qq. U have 54% equity against a range of ak, qq, kk but that's assuming she does this with ak all the time.

20 minutes and this thread has your woman soul-read. *SMH*