Villain: very loose passive only being aggressive when she has the nyts (plays over pairs as if they are the nuts)

Villain opens utg+1 to 20. +2 and Hijack call. I call with KQdd(cutoff) (my hand plays great multi way so no need to 3b plus villain hasn't been raising pre much so her range is very strong here.)
Small blind and big blind also call

($120) flop: Td9d3x
Checks around to hijack who bets $60. I flat. Blinds fold. +1 raises to $400. Folds to me. Hero??

Thought here is that she has aces kings and maybe queens but I block kings and queens. She has been very tight pre limping almost everything other than big pocket pairs.

I have at least 48% equity here maybe more if she has queens.

with $240 dead money in the pot and having at least 48% equity here this is a shove right? I am shoving $443 here and expecting to be called 100% of the time with Aces Kings or Queens (no diamond)



Thoughts??

I hate calling off here against an obvious set, I'd rather have raised the first time around and committed all my chips that way.

We only have a 12, sorry 11-out draw here and are being put to test instead of being the aggressor ourselves.

The math gurus will do the math and tell you if it's a call or not because of all the dead money, but I don't like this spot. I think we can fold here, having invested only $80.

What is the effective stack?

Can you let go of a flopped TP, at least by the turn?

I think the answers to these will help u navigate this spot. Her PFR range appears to be very strong, especially from UTG+1.

AP, I'd fold as V range likely has redraws even if u bink turn.

I let this go. Not sure on the math, but we only have 12 outs (why 11?), maybe 11 if she has Ad.

If you want to gamble, go for it. I usually do, but not in this spot. Plus, hijack could have easily had some of our outs and given up.

How much did you start hand with? If I'm reading this right looks like you started with $523.

If stack size above is right I shove here if she plays overpairs like the nuts. Before her raise there's $300 in the pot. We're getting 443:743, so need about 37% equity. We have 46% equity against a range of 99-AA, which gives her the plausible sets (assume V isn't raising 33 here) and all overpairs. Against a range of just AA, TT and 99 we have 39% equity. Against a range of just sets we still have 34% equity so not making a huge mistake. Basically can't fold here if we think she's ever playing overpairs like this, because there are a lot more combos of overpairs than sets available to her, especially if she would sometimes limp TT and especially 99 pre.

I would not worry about HJ having one of our outs. If anything, I assume that one of HJ's cards was a T or a 9, and therefore definitely not one of our outs, which slightly helps our odds. Of course the other card could be a diamond or a jack, or it may not.

why are you discounting sets? This play is usually done with sets from this type of villain. vs sets your about a 30% dog.

OP, yeah, stack sizes.

What's your estimate of V's range to raise preflop?

What's your estimate of that range when she x/r half PSB + call?

Once you've estimated those two things, you've answered your own question.

Also, without a range estimate, you'll get apparently contradictory advice from responders because they'll have somewhat different range estimates. After all, it's an estimate and creating one is more art than science.

If your estimate seems far off, you get the opportunity to see how and maybe why.

Also, and most important, the ability to construct at least a rough range estimate on the fly at the table is critical to poker success. You'll get faster doing it at the table the more you practice it off the table.

Sorry thought I posted stack size. Had $523 to start the hand. Also about 2 orbits before this hand I watched her limp 88 UTG so I really don't put 99 or TT in her raising range. She's so tight that in this spot I am giving her a range of only JJ QQ KK AA or AK. We can discount AK from her range here because she isn't capable of check raising bluffs or semibluffs. Seems more likely to be AA though because I block KK and QQ.

Another good thing to mention is that I have seen her overvalue her over pairs twice up to this point

With 48% equity (trusting you here), if she has QQ-AA and most likely doesn't have a set, go for it.

Is she all in? Assuming she is, there's now ~640 in the pot and you have to call 340, so you need ~35% equity. You have that, so call and ride the variance train.

I don't think she only has sets here - I think she shows up with a big pair much more often, but even against a range of exactly TT-AA you have ~48%. If you throw in all combos of 99, which I think is way too pessimistic, you have ~46%.

Call ainec.

Yeah the only way this is a fold is if she 100% has sets here. Give her any made hand weaker than a set and we have the equity to call.

Thanks for the input guys! Figured I had to go with this hand against her perceived range. Just a ****ty high variance spot. Ended up getting there on the turn and was good against her overpair with no diamond.😎

Definitely high variance but this is a pretty standard spot. If she actually has a set you're still almost priced in. There's no way you can fold here except maybe against the nittiest of nits who would raise TT pre but would never gii with less than a set. It's also helpful that because you have the Kd and Qd, and the Td and 9d is on the board, basically the only flush draw she could have in her range is AJdd.

1 straight flush out, 7 flush outs (excluding the 3d that boats her up) and 3 straight outs.

Oh. Was not putting her on a set.

If she never has sets here, then basically if you fold you're giving her half the pot that you already own so since you own half the pot already, call and pray for a diamond or a jack if you think it's a coin flip.

Out of curiosity, what was her overpair? If she had QQ or JJ we had even more outs than we thought