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Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set

04-24-2011 , 07:19 PM
Hey guys, this hand was played by my friend/roommate in Detroit, not sure if it matters where but just including things. Effective stacks are around $200-220.

BB is an older woman regular who is saying hi to dealers and stuff, and MP has a St. Louis Cardinals jersey on and seems about in his mid-30s.. no read on if he's a regular or not.

On to the hand.. It's a limped pot, hero is in LP with 33 and limps behind after 3 limpers. SB and BB come along, and flop comes Q43r. BB leads out for $10, MP calls and hero raises to $30. I think this is pretty standard but I see merits towards flatting. BB flat-calls after a little thought, and MP makes it $60 really quickly.

What's our line?
Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Quote
04-24-2011 , 07:46 PM
This is a spot where the ONLY hand villain could have that could be doing this is middle set, but sets are just so damn hard to make I'd just say to myself "wow, i haven't made a set in months, no way the poker gods can just give him a set as well just like that". Anyway, I'd min raise here to get the BB out in case she has an OESD.
Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Quote
04-24-2011 , 09:47 PM
I call and dont plan on folding. Im willing to risk the pot a small % of the time to get the other guy(girl ?)in with some weak made hand or some bull**** that could improve to something we still beat and we're really shallow to be folding sets

Minreraise is stronger than than minraise but still think it winds up being top pair/slowplayed overpair/ randomshyt more often than top or middle set
Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Quote
04-24-2011 , 09:58 PM
I probably flat and hope to bring BB along as well for some additional value on the turn. Having position here is a huge advantage. If this was heads up and/or I was out of position, I'd lean toward shoving after MP's re-raise on the flop, but there are so many ways we can stack MP by the end of the hand here if we flat call that I think we try to keep BB around to get some extra money out of her.

MP might have 44, but he could just as easily have 34 (which we have crushed), or even Q4s/Q3s, or maybe even KQ or something.

Without reads, we have no problem committing for 100bb imo, even though it's a limped pot - I think the only question is how to make sure we get stacks in, and how to extract as much money as we can from the BB (it looks like we're getting it in with MP no matter what).
Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Quote
04-24-2011 , 11:47 PM
Stack sizes of each player? Is there going to be a side pot?

I elect to flat, to keep the reg in the hand (or at least her $30 before she shuts down)

You need to have a good history on MP to NOT put him on middle set, as I agree this is usually a middle set move.

Given these stack sizes I will stack off here without a hickup
Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Quote
04-25-2011 , 12:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
Stack sizes of each player? Is there going to be a side pot?

I elect to flat, to keep the reg in the hand (or at least her $30 before she shuts down)

You need to have a good history on MP to NOT put him on middle set, as I agree this is usually a middle set move.

Given these stack sizes I will stack off here without a hickup
I'm confused. You say you need a read to NOT put him on a middle set but then advise stacking off without a read?

If this was the first hand at the table, I'm folding. The call, minraise screams big hand. Without reads, I don't reasonably put Q3, Q4 in his range.
Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Quote
04-25-2011 , 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sactownjoey
I'm confused. You say you need a read to NOT put him on a middle set but then advise stacking off without a read?

If this was the first hand at the table, I'm folding. The call, minraise screams big hand. Without reads, I don't reasonably put Q3, Q4 in his range.
In other words, in a vacuum, yes I agree the minreraise on a dry board can be interpreted mostly as a strong hand (in this case middle set).
However, your read is never 100% (it's close but not with certainty)

What if villain limped with KK (I've seen this alot)
What if villain limped with AQ (I've seen this alot too)

And YES, I would play for stacks here simply because we are playing for only 100bb

I would definitely flat the raise to keep the reg in.
You also have position to see how the turn and river play.
Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Quote
04-25-2011 , 01:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thac
Hey guys, this hand was played by my friend/roommate in Detroit, not sure if it matters where but just including things. Effective stacks are around $200-220.

BB is an older woman regular who is saying hi to dealers and stuff, and MP has a St. Louis Cardinals jersey on and seems about in his mid-30s.. no read on if he's a regular or not.

On to the hand.. It's a limped pot, hero is in LP with 33 and limps behind after 3 limpers. SB and BB come along, and flop comes Q43r. BB leads out for $10, MP calls and hero raises to $30. I think this is pretty standard but I see merits towards flatting. BB flat-calls after a little thought, and MP makes it $60 really quickly.

What's our line?
Ugly spot.

Line is indicative of either a terrible player or a bigger set, no? Given those options and that we have position I'm calling, seeing the turn and hunting for more information when he has to act again.

Not sure I can ever find a fold with a set against an unknown on this dry a board though, so I'm probably just calling it off on the turn if he keeps his foot on the gas. I do agree with everybody that the alarm bells are going off though and if I'm ever folding a set for 100bb on a super dry board, this is the kind of line that makes me want to do it.
Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Quote
04-25-2011 , 02:08 AM
Call, get it in on the turn. Not folding to any turn card or turn action.
Live 1/2, analysis on a friend's line with set Quote

      
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