A hand I've thought about since it happened roughly 3 weeks ago, in a $1/$2 game:

Me: $630 stack
Tighter Lady on Button: $250
Decent Aggro Player 2 to my right: $174 (Stuck $600)



The player 2 to my right was the big blind, and UTG folds. I open to $12 with pocket 9's and get two callers by the players explained above. 3 way to the flop, 9c-7c-4c. BB checks, I bet $20 and both call. Turn a Ks, very good card without improving my hand. BB checks again, I bet $40, button calls and BB shoves for his remaining stack, which ends up being $102 for me to call. I still have the lady on the button that I know has to have a hand, but I don't think she flat calls the turn with a flush, so I feel like I have her beat.

I go into the tank for about a minute and my neighbor to my left actually knew my hand. He and I sweated each other a couple of hands and though I don't think it affected my decision, I feel like someone knowing I can make a lay down like that would have been impressive. I just felt like even though the guy was loose and stuck, I really just felt that there is no way he is bluffing. I end up laying it down, and the lady behind folded as well. She ended up showing a set of 4's and the guy sweating me was the only one who knew I folded the set of 9's. If the guy was making a move, it damn worked to get two sets to lay down.

Now I don't know if it was the right lay down or not. I know obviously the math says call, getting about 2-to-1 on my money to call and being possible I do have the best hand already, and if I don't, obviously I can improve. Of course, if he flopped a flush, seeing the lady's set of 4's was nice, because I know two of my outs against a flush were gone in her hand, so I am left with only 8 unseen outs instead of 10.

Now three hands later, I did end up felting the same opponent. I had A-Q and played a heads-up flop against him. It came Q-5-3, and he bet pretty big, then I shoved for his remaining approximately 150. When he called, I figured I was in trouble, but spiked a queen on the turn that ended up being good. He never showed, but I felt like I got lucky. Though he may have had A-K of hearts which would have been a flush draw being there were two hearts on the flop.

So while the lay down may have been incorrect, it set me up to a minimal loss and gain a big pot against the same guy that if I had called and won with that set of 9's, I'd have had about the same exact amount of chips as I did after busting him, but obviously not calling, being wrong, and losing that extra hundred.

I guess my question here is: are you ever laying down the set of 9's in that spot?

This is a poker stove question. Give her a range and see your pot odds.

[x] flopped top set
[x] have an effective SPR of 5
[x] playing against an aggro who's not super deep

[] I likely lay this down

I think you should actually bet bigger on the flop and just plan to commit on any non club turn.
If you lead the flop for something more along the lines of $30, and they both call, there is $125 in the pot on the turn, and you can make a bet of closer to $75 on the turn. He shoves, you call, you're committed. And the times that he has middle set, you get all his money. The times that he flopped a flush, well, you'll suck out 20% of the time. The times that he turned the second nut flush draw + a pair, you're way ahead.

Your sizing is weak, and it screams 'Raise me, I don't like my hand that much'. You bet ~1/2 the pot on the flop, and then ~1/2 the pot on the turn also on a very scard connected board. Seems like the line someone with an overpair would take. Right up including the part where you fold the turn.
If you had AsAc here would you bet more or less on the flop and the turn? And why would you do as such? Also, would you lay that hand down on the turn to the shove? Why or why not? Just food for thought.

Good comparison with the set of 9's vs. A-A w/ club. I have the same amount of outs roughly if I have to improve to win, and I probably do call with Aces and the club back-up. At the time, I still just felt like there is no way he is making a move with me AND the lady behind to act, both looking pretty strong. I feel like I should have called there and snapped most of his range off.

The fact that I got him only three hands later makes me not regret the lay down, but my wonder is if I ever should in a similar spot in a $1/$2 cash game when I am already ahead over $300 at the start of the hand, and just over half the profit being at stake at the time. I tend to get a bit more aggressive after losing a big pot, so I factored that into not wanting to risk it. But the folding steam caught up on the A-Q shove that may have put me back to near even and been a bigger hit. Just weird how the game works sometimes.

He almost certainly doesn't have KK, so you effectively have the nut set. Unless he flips the flush face up, you can't fold as you're often good and have plenty of outs if behind. He could easily have several hands you beat such as AcKx, KxQc, K9.

He doesn't know you two have sets; he might think top pair is good and you both are on flush draws or pair+draws. Also, he may just want to make a move (or gamble), especially being stuck 600.

Sent from my SGH-T889 using 2+2 Forums

I don't think this guys range right here is consisting primarily of hands that are beating you. He can have any Ac x hand, 97, K9, AA with or without (more likely with) the club, and 77 (possibly 56 with a club? maybe?) and make this shove considering stack sizes and your weak bet. I think this is at worst a break even call but I doubt this isn't +EV.

Lee Jones wrote a long time ago that if you didn't lose a lot of money with a set, you played it wrong. If the villain flatted a raise pf and the flop and hits his 2 outer on the turn, he can have my stack. I put enough money in to get the Lady to be AI and see a show down.

When he shoves, the pot is ~320 and you have to call 100. The worst the lady can put you to is another 80.

If anything, you should shove to knock her out of the pot right here, because there is no way you can fold if she calls. Basically, with these odds, you need to be good about 1 in 4. if the woman is going to call your shove, 1 in about 3.5 to be getting the right price. I feel you are easily good here this often, and I think the shove folds her out with anything but a King or Ace high flush.

Also, spiking that queen on the 2nd hand doesn't mean you got lucky, it means he had garbage. The only possible hand he could have had that was ahead of you that you ended up beating was 5 3, unless he is playing Q 5 or Q 3. He more likely had something like KQ and thought you were steaming, or most likely, decided to gamble on a flush draw.

Call. Bet 30 on flop and bet 3/4 to pot on turn. When u flop a set on a monotone flop u usually have to play it super fast by betting and raising (assuming 100bb or less)

The reason is villains are way more likely to have a flush draw instead of a made flush for obvious reasons and u have to charge them before a club peels off

In a multi way pot that's as wet as this one I feel like betting more on both the flop and turn is a most. This would also lead to an easier turn decision after he shoved.

I'd bet closer to pot on the flop. After I got two calls I would bet around 3/4 pot ott.

You would price yourself in no matter what at this point which is what I would want.

I also think you need to take the game dynamics into play here as well. Guys stuck a couple buy ins and is known to be agro. This coupled with your weakish turn bets makes this even more of a call.

Also I don't agree with your justification that you ended up with the money anyways. That hand is it's own entity. Besides that, you over played top pair and sucked out(allegedly).

All the points have been what I have been thinking about, as I do feel like it is about a call 99% of the time, but in cash games I just play my instincts and really just felt like he isn't bluffing. I feel like having such great pot odds and nearly even money odds if I am actually behind . . . that's why I felt he was already made. Of course K-9 is a real possibility, but that didn't even go through my head at the time.

Another factor is if he does have Ac-Kx, or any type of pair-flush draw combo, he still does have his full outs, as only a live Kc wouldn't be good. Sometimes I do factor in the being ahead now, but flush draws tear me a new one seemingly every session, so maybe I was sort of playing a prevent defense or whatnot. Regardless of my logics, I don't think I am really ever laying this down in a $1/$2 game again, probably even if it is for my whole stack. Of course if in future similar situations, a worse card comes off, then obviously I can give it up. But the king of spades after that flop is about the one card I want to see without boating up.