Quote:
Originally Posted by adonson
My takeaway was never underestimate your opponent just because he’s drunk. He was playing a passive low variance game, fit-or-fold on the flop, never did anything stupid. He’s not so reckless that he would barrel two streets with KT or KJ or even open-bet the flop with a three-quarters pot bet into three players.
I agree we shouldn't underestimate our opponents. Likewise, we shouldn't over-estimate them either. He could be playing a fit-or-fold game, but K9-KJ might be a fit, as far as he's concerned. He might think barreling off with top pair on a paired board isn't reckless.
Regarding his bet-sizing, I'd consider it within the context of the game size and his past betting patterns. In smaller pots and at lower stakes, it's not uncommon for players to bet larger proportions of the pot. So while betting 30 into 40 is 3/4 pot, it may just be a smallish 30 bet into a smallish 40 pot.
As for not wanting to call flop just to fold turn - that's sort of what I was getting at when I suggested a min-raise on flop. I don't like these situations, where a fishy, wild, aggro, or drunk opponent donks into us when we have a hand that seems too good to fold, yet probably isn't good enough to continue calling down on turn and / or river.
I don't see the flop as a binary choice between call or fold. Raising small on the flop to slow V down, likely get him to check to us on the turn, and get us to the river without bloating the pot is also an option, one I like better than calling or folding.
I also just like raising donk leads whenever we have a hand that's likely beating whatever V has, almost as a matter of principle. The effrontery of donk leads deserves punishment, and I've found relentlessly raising donk leads from weak players to be immensely profitable.