Fine with pre and flop. Now Cf turn

We have the nut flush draw and the nut gutshot on the turn. The gutshot implied odds probably ain't great, but the backdoor flush draw implied odds should be good. Unless the bet on the turn is pretty big, we should typically be able to call it.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Didn't notice the fd. Can't fold obv

I prefer a bet/fold on flop to check/call but either is OK. Deep and OOP against that many opponents I'm hoping everybody folds. Hero's hand is too good to be entirely passive but hero can't plan on getting three streets of value.

Turn is an odd card. It may have pushed some hands ahead of hero, but it's also a good card to barrel and hero can actually bet here to set a price drawing to the nuts. I like betting $100 to setup a big bet if hero hits on river. If you think villain is likely to bet anything if checked too then check/raise is also viable in this situation.

If hero does get called on turn and misses, then check/evaluate on river is the best option.

absolutely, nice sizing on the cbet too, turn is definitely better chk/eval and im wild enough to seriously consider crai pretty straightforward stuff

couldnt agree more with this

i think this especially resonates with me when im playing at tables such as the one youre on, with all of these deepstacked thinking pressure-applying regs, eventhough limping this utg is probably better and easier to play on almost any table.

You should expect to flop a mediocre tp like this a lot and I think the most standard line has to be to cbet 3/4pot/eval flop to retain any control and chk/eval almost all turns (i cant think of a single turn we should double barrel honestly #pot control #widen aggro villians range #chasing royals)

obviously we should be anticipating that this hand wont be easy to play post on this table oop

Now the river....

Hero has $445 behind, pot is $401 and I am probably behind (but not to the nuts, so there might be a river bluff that works but unlikely. If straight or flush get there, I am not bluffing. If they don't it would seem easy to catch the bluff. Maybe an A, but even that might not really be a bluff.) I think I probably need to catch an out and maybe a nut out.

River is 10s, truly the absolute bingo card. Obviously, I no longer care what he has other than more is better. Only question is obviously sizing. Do I check for a c/r? (I don't see him betting, so no.) Shove to make it look like a over bet bluff? (But with flush and straight both getting there, doubt he would call.) Bet small and try to look scared? (Probably just gets a crying call). So I bet $150 (little over 1/3rd pot). Small enough he could try to get me off (but I have 300 behind, so I would be looking to call 300 for $1000. I don't expect this play.) In hindsight, since I knew he had some of the flop and he probably knows he just got rivered, I might have left a little value. Maybe he calls 1/2 pot (3:1 for the call) so maybe $200 would have been right?

He calls the $150 while asking "Do you have it?" To which I reply (immediately, no slow roll at all) "I have the SUPER IT" as I turn over the royal. (My first ever live BTW.)

honestly in total I don't think I played the hand particularly well. I probably got more from the hand than I should (up to the river for sure). It worked, but probably to high a variance play to approach it like this. Perfect run of cards in a perfect order but far from perfect play.

First I do have something, TPGK. It is probably behind but it is something. Also I have 12 nut outs and 5 improve outs. Against AJ, only 2 of the 5 are good but we don't know he has AJ. Against 33, only the nut outs are good. Against a flopped 2 pair, all 5 are good.

BTW, as posted elsewhere, he did have 33. Slow played the dry flop with bottom set (if he isn't raising me no way he is trying to run off the BB who he knows is worse and probably far worse.) The turn plus the $100 bet pinned him. Raise would have been crazy (he isn't), fold was possible but he would probably be folding to a big draw (obviously he didn't.) So call behind and shove the river on a blank was really his only choice or a crying call if the river isn't a blank.

Blasting with the straight ( but with $300 in the pot and $450 behind, your blast would be almost an all in. Villian has me covered but barely, $50 to 75 more than me.)

Obviously I was not scared money as I fired away. It was long after the hand that I felt the $45 was poor. A bet yes, but not so much. But the point I was making about my draws was there was not a single card in the deck I could 'root for' that I would "know" was actually good for me. The card I got, As, was literally the best and it only improved my draws not my hand.

And yes, at least 2 of the V's behind me (including the BB) could call with a pair and gut shot. But the good news is a pair and a gutshot is not much better off then me. Even hitting the gutshot isn't a pure bingo for them if they don't have the A as I could have over straighted them.

The fact that I did bet and got called in 2 places when my hand looked like AK is part of the scare. The BB may not have a clue where I am. But the other villain probably has my range narrowed. That is why I took AJ out of his range as while he might call 2nd pair, top kicker and a gut shot, he probably would not with the other 2 Vs behind. His position isn't that strong either (And he knows those two Vs, maybe not as well as me. But he does know them.)

Agree, I took a trouble hand and made it really troublesome to play. Knowing what I know now, a limp probably makes it to the complete fish BB. He might have raised into 5 limps. If so, I may have folded or raised large to isolate. I doubt would not have called him with what I know is behind be at that point. Just too easy for KQ to be dominated in a big multiway.

So I probably could have seen a cheap flop with decent dead money (probable play) OR a "big" pot with a decent hand (pretty much can not be dead post flop regardless of what he has other than KK or AA and even against those totally dead.)

But OTT I would expect to get blown off my hand more by checking than betting 1/2 pot. If I bet small, sure he comes over big. If I check, he is pushing at least $100 out there. He has something on that board and it just got super wet. And it is super wet in a way that I could be on one of those draws (as we know I am.) Trying to build some pot and protect myself from a very tough c/c to his big bet is why I bet. It is a little ABCish, the the alphabet does start with ABC.

I think your river bet is pretty much the most he would call, anymore and hes entering hero fold territory...thats what he gets for slowplaying a flopped set snap raise flop on his end i think... nh

I really like this line, but if you CRAI how big are you going? If V makes a fairly large bet, then a CRAI must be a shove, if I'm remembering the stack sizes correctly, and the pot on the Turn is around 200.

I was going on your read: "my best guess is that he has a set of 3's." I guess if you want to say a small % of the time that he'll have AJ, then you could add 1 out [?] for the 2 kings?

So, he did gamble with his bottom set & try and get the max value out of it. I don't gamble much.

That's just enough. If you have $450, you're getting 1.66:1 on your money.
If you have $450 - $75 = $375, you're getting 1.8:1 on your money.

Even if I turn over my QT on the turn b4 you decide whether to call, you only have 9 outs to a flush, making you a 3.88:1 dog, with 2 outs to tie.

In 1/2 games where I play, you will often run into people who will call getting the worse of it, simply because they've already come this far & put so much money in already.

I would go all-in on the turn even if I 'knew' you only had 9 outs. I don't gamble much.

For me, preflop in this case (big stacks, tricky players) boils down to just three things: (a) position, (b) position and finally (c) position. I hate building big pots OOP. If we must build a big pot with tricky players with deep stacks, even ones that unfortunately end up going multiway, at the very least do it in position. IMO.

We are *much* more likely to get pushed off our hand on the turn if we bet and get raised rather than check and face a bet. I can't remember the pot size on the turn, but we could easily have 12 outs to the nuts, which means we'd like 3:1 implied odds; which means we can immediately fist pump call a 1/2 PSB just on immediate odds alone, let alone implied odds. However, if we bet and get raised, the raiser will often not have enough (or anything) left behind for implied odds, and we'll have to fold (a disaster with a hand with this much monster making ability). On top of that, we're not trying to get one player off their hand, we're trying to get two players off their hand. And on top of that, an obvious OESD completed.

As for the river, I would typically just shove here and hope for the best. A check allows a huge amount of hands to check back (no set- is ever betting this horrible river card, heck a straight might even check it back), but all of these hands will at least *consider* a call. Will they call very often? Probably not. But let's just hope for the best.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Shove river. Half of the reason for betting turn was so hero could shove river when you hit. Villain is likely to fold, but going smaller isn't going to improve your EV, your hoping villain has something he can't put down. If your really confident villain will never call a shove, then make a suck bet of $100 or so. Something that two pair/set might call on principle.

Overall, catching your flush here is more profitable because the straight is too obvious. You run the small risk of running into the nut flush, but are much more likely to get paid off by worse hands.

I don't understand some of thinking in this thread.

raise pre standard, flop top pair in a five way pot w/ 2 broadway cards, this is a must bet every single time. No reason to think other wise, just lead like you did $45 seems like a fine size to me.

turn again I like betting, the A is a good card for you to be beting after an utg open, plus all the equity you picked up. The one thing I don't understand is ranging villain toward a set? multiway w this wet of a board a set is going to raise the flop, if not certainly the turn, when he just calls he never has a set.

stay aggressive, from your posts it seems like you were a bit mubsy. Hand was played fine, no need to second guess yourself

spoiler: he had a set...

The A was just a good card. It was the best possible card for me.

I am ranging him toward a set because KJ was less likely since I also had a K. Same for K3 but a that is also less likely for him to play. J3 he folded pre. JJ he raised pre. Flopped a straight draw, then he might call river, but when A hits 3rd s, hit straight raises. Maybe he turned 2 pair, but it isn't AK so maybe AJ, would he call $100 with the straight out there? Also I could easily have AK. Lots of ways AJ is in trouble on the turn. After you eliminate or reduce chances on these hands and you start seeing probably a set and probably 3's. IMO at least.

As to being MUBSY remember I bet fairly aggressive post flop on. 3/4 pot on flop. 1/2 flop on turn with basically only a draw. And certainly nothing even could be MUBSY on the river. That one is purely a sizing question.

As to a set raising the flop, it wasn't really that wet. BW draw was about it. If he raises, top and middle set going nowhere but dominate him. Top two might call. OESD will call but that is probably the only call he is ahead of and with 8 outs the OESD is no worse than 2:1. He might have had me on AK but he is smart enough and enough history to suspect (and usually be right I don't raise into 6 players.) And we know he did have bottom set.

I still contend because of my poor position, I overplayed the hand on the flop and turn. Not a horrific play but not my best.

Agree the bet OTT was prep for a shove OTR, but both the flush and the straight got there on the river plus the royal. If only flush or only straight, I was certainly ready to shove. But with both, I don't see him calling. Also w/o the royal, if he does fold, he never sees or learns. There will be some level of 'was I right' in his mind. With the royal, since the house pays a $125 bonus, he is going to see my hand and remove all doubt.

I am not positive, but I am comfortable with my $150 or little over 1/3rd pot that he did call.

The reason I bet 1/2 pot OTT (getting those same 3:1 if he calls plus taking it down if he folds.) I don't mind a fold, since I expect I am drawing so most made hands he folds are ahead, and I never mind a V folding while ahead.

So my thoughts were will he just check behind if I check. If so I wasted a chance to profitably build a pot (1/2 PSB is +EV ott). And as to raising, since I put him on a set (and likely 3's) I felt there were way to many hands he did not like to raise OTT. AA, KK, JJ were definitely in my range. Q 10 probably not, but AQ. KQ, maybe even QJs (not really but in his mind maybe) and then a Ks suited for a NFD. Even if he is ahead, I likely have a good number of outs and many of them nut outs, so he would probably have to shove for me to not have odds to call. So if he is behind, he is now behind with 1 out maybe and almost a snap call based on odds. If he is ahead either I fold or I have nut outs and will call. And me drawing to the nut outs is his best scenario. This was the actual situation and I did hit one of the 12 nut outs. I am pretty sure raising OTT was -EV for him.

I kind of feel like you're afraid of nothing against this villain. It seems like you're inventing ways for him to beat you. For instance, you said in the beginning that his original call concerns you, because he could have K3 and J3. If he has K3 and J3 he could have all sorts of other nonsense. Then you say he could be floating with Ace high, and that's true, but if he is he's probably calling with other garbage, and you probably only said Ace high, because you know an Ace is coming on the turn. You give him a ton of hands that beat you and he may very well have them, but there's no way he has hands like random Ace highs, K3 and J3 without having a ton of hands that you're way ahead of.

Check Raise All In kinda defines the size and is by def a shove.

Thanks for the feedback and opinions. Obviously with that river, one can make a case that all I did wrong was not GII by the end. But that is hindsight. I think I did misplay the hand but I did so in a manner that probably came close to getting the maximum But also probably close to max variance.

I think that is the biggest diff between the 'you were too aggressive OOP' and 'played well' or 'should have bet bigger' groups is how much variance you want I your play. I like to keep variance to reasonable level. Not nitty, but not GII ATC preflop variance.

Thanks again.