I have frequently played with this villian at 1/2. He is one of the better players in the room. However, he is very predictable. I have watched his raise sizing from all positions. in early position he always makes a pot sweetening raise (roughly 3bb) with a low pocket pair or mid-range suited connectors. He has no problem gambling if he feels it is a decent play. In early position with a big pocket pair or AK he will raise closer to 8bb. Villian is UTG and Hero is on the button effective stacks are $180.

villian is UTG and raises to $6. three limpers to hero. Hero holds AQ on the button. raises to $34. folds to villian who thinks for about a minute. Studies me a lot and ships. At this point I am 99% sure he doesn't have AA KK QQ or AK. Finally, he goes all in for $180. Folds to hero. I figure at worst I'm a coin flip based on read so I call. I rarely make calls like this, but my read just told me I had to go with it. If we are good at reading opponents and have a prior history with this villian can we profitably make this call, or would most consider this a spew?

Given stacks I'd rather just take a $6 flop in position

Prob shouldn't make massive 3bets if we don't know what to do when we get 4bet- I'm not all that comfortable getting AQ ai preflop for 90bbs, AK is fine

He prob has jjs I'd guess

I prefer spots better than coinflips against avg 1/2 donks... Also he shows up w AK here as a decent part of his range.... So I just call and play postflop

The pot is laying you 3:2, and in some cases, he has a pair JJ or lower... where you're 9:11, very rarely will he show up without a pair unless it's AK, in which case you're in trouble. Plus, there is the problem of QQ+ putting you in a bad spot. I think that weighting his hand range to the strong side (where AQ doesn't look much better than 9:11 to win) finds a fold pretty easily here.

your read make this a call for odds... i don't really know why you're posting this unless he randomly showed up with AA by mistake.

Once he ships I think your read was either way off or he read your massive 3bet as weak/trying to pick up the dead money with air and shoved over. Not sure I give 1/2 players that much credit though, he probably has a huge hand.

Either way, I think 3betting here is a must because AQ 5 way is not the best play and based on your read nobody has a monster in this spot. I 3bet to around $25 and snapfold to a 4bet.

Pocket Kings.

plz fold here
why is your 3bet so massive?
3betting under the gun raises with hands your not willing to stack off with is not generally a great idea

unless villain views you as lag there is not way he shows up with worse here if he is as predictable as you say.

As played, why does everyone think OPs 3bet sizing is poor (massive)? Villain opened for $6 and got 3 callers; wouldn't a typical 3bet amount be 3x raise + callers, which in this case = $36, so right around where OP 3bet. Raising to anything much smaller seems horribad cuz methinks we end up in a 5way pot, like, always, no?

in a global sense yea its fine but the effect it has on calling ranges is huge, like hero does not know what to do when he is shoved on but with his sizing has created a spot where he may have to call when well behind due to the pot size he created. not to mention if his goal is to 3bet for value players are not typically limp/calling with hands lesser than AQ so he isn't getting much value from the bet either.

If his goal is to just pick up dead money its fine but bluffing with AQ is meh at best.

If he felt he was doing this for value then its better but I did not get that impression from the OP. If he feels the UTG range is weak thats great and all but if he is just folding all of his weak connectors and shoving or calling with better hands it doesn't make much sense with AQ.

I don't like calling for a couple of reasons: (1) if villain is making this play regularly (i.e., he is spewy) there's no reason to flip for it here, you can get his chips when you have better odds; if he's not doing this play regularly then your hand is in trouble. (2) You're really hoping your read gives you at best a flip or he has air. If it's a flip and you need to improve, there's a good chance one of the two callers has some of your outs and you're getting worst odds than you think.

I like the 3bet, but these level stakes are about bet/folding and to me this is one of those spots.

yeah fold. AQ is beat in every which way here, do you really think he ships AJ here?

Pokerstove this and find out. You have the read, not us.

That said, the important question is what are you going to go through if you lose. If you can laugh it off, re-buy back in and not let it affect you, then call. If it is going to put you on tilt, fold. You'll spew off far more than the equity you give up here if you folded.

Well, if your reads are correct, then it's a snap call as at least a fair amount of the time you're up against middle suited connectors and the rest pocket pairs under QQ. Of course, if the question is are your reads off given villain's play, which they would seem to be as shoving here is not predictable with villain's range, then probably should fold (and adjust your read).

Nice 3bet, now you fold...not close.

Thank you everyone for the replies. I just got home from a long session, so hopefully I make sense here. First of all, results - I call villian flips 44. Nothing about this hand seemed right. I really did believe that he could shove A10 or AJ. I did not believe he would shove qq. AA or KK maybe, but that seemed like a pretty large overbet. I hit an A and won. This isn't anything I am incredibly proud of. However, in response to venice. I usually play with 3 and a half buy ins if I must. I don't tilt easily, and this would certainly not tilt me. I really wanted to know what he had. It seemed like an strange call, but everything about my read said it was right. I also felt like if I flipped this over, which I did as I called, it would give me a unique image at the table. All things put together I felt like it was a good call at the moment.

I know a lot of people don't agree with me here, but I'm wondering as a live low limit player how often we can profitably go with our reads? When I get a good read on a villian it is typically right. However, without percentages how can we determine how profitable reads can be? It seems like too often we strictly play percentages. I typically would never make this call, but my read was very strong. Should I still play by the book or is gambling ok here with the added idea that our image at the table will be set in stone for the rest of the night. No one tried to bluff me, because they thought i called down light. I'm thinking most people will just respond and say "Wow you got lucky, and now you are trying to justify it." That is not the case at all I really want an idea on how many players believe reads like this are important to profits? Without using reads I constantly find myself putting people on ranges like AA - QQ. Shouldn't we use reads to either broaden or shorten ranges and then trust those ranges?

^ I think the only way to answer that question is with another question: "How strong is the read?" In this case, it was very strong, so you made the right decision.

Be aware that this player probably isn't going to be 4bet shoving with 44 anytime soon against you, so next time muck the AQ.

Ok I have a better way of wording what I want answered. I think almost everyone agrees that you should use reads to help establish ranges. My question is if you have a strong read, should you still make the conventional llsnl play? In this case the conventional play is fold, because the 4-bet all in is "always" AA KK. Almost every 4-bet HH analysis I have read over the past few years says that this has to be AA or KK. However, if you're playing against a good opponent, who knows this conventional wisdom and might push to make it look like AA or KK, and your read says BS. Should you still fold. It seems like everyone believes a 4-bet is AA or KK, but to be one of the best players at your level it seems like you need to be able to differentiate between a real AA KK or absolute BS. As a side note if you don't have a strong enough read I think you should always play conventionally.

Thank you Canoodles I didn't see that post by the time I put mine out there.

Something to add: a lot of live low stakes players aren't thinking moves ahead like 2p2 encourages. He may make his standard raise with 44, pick something up or decide to make a move AFTER the 3bet rather than saying to himself "I'm raise/folding" before he puts the chips in.

I think we have to understand that each piece of their story can be a separate story all in itself; their initial move isn't nullified by a future "obscurity". In these spots, maybe it is best to go with our read because we have the added equity of learning of that read is as strong as we think.

Live Low Stakes players are unpredictable in this way I find a lot... I have a friend who has never been on 2p2, doesn't play on online anymore and rarely did to start. He doesn't incorporate or even understand half of the concepts 2p2ers use, yet he is a winning player, and it's largely based on his reading ability. He plays very unconventionally but stands above because of his feel and reads in the game... it's very telling of how profitable reads can be IMO.

You both played it horribly.