V1: older man 50s, nice guy jives with the table, bets for value big when he has it (he led $80 into an $70 in a bomb pit when he flipped 2p). $1000

V2: asian guy, early 30s, competent thinking player, I would think a winning player. $1200

V3: white guy late 30s, we’ve been battling for the last 2 hours and I’ve just been running great against him. Flopped quads and won an $800 pot. We’re in good terms, I’m a talkative player, but he definitely doesn’t like how I’ve been running against him. He sits to my direct right so…. $1200

Hero: young guy, probably seen as competent snd slightly bluff heavy. I shoved within the first few hands of sitting down on a river that bricked out an over pot bet and showed my bottom pair that I was bluffing with. I have been running hot overall though and took a $300 stack to now $1200.

Hero has Kd Ks.

1/3 and I’m UTG and straddle to $6. V1 in LJ raises to $12. He didn’t see my straddle. V2 calls. V3 calls. Hero raises to $80. All calls….. not standard for this table. People might call a $20 open but they’re not usually calling 3bets like that.

Flop ($320)
8, 9, 10 rainbow

V2 checks, v3 checks, I check, V1 bets $90.
V2 folds. V3 calls. Hero?

Call. $90 for a $500 pot? We might be behind, but can't fold for that price on the flop. I don't know how to range someone who calls a $12 raise pre, then calls an $80 3-bet. I'm more worried about V1 since he was the original raiser. He's more likely to have sets or QJs. You would think V3 would be raising most hands that beat us.

I called. On to the turn.

Turn ($590)
2h bringing in bdfd

V3 checks. Hero checks. V1 bets $250. V3 folds. Hero?

Disgusting flop. I cant fold for that price. Then I fold anyways for that price 4 ways OOP and its 1/3. You are basically praying he is a maniac or has specifically JJ or J10

If he had a set or a straight, wouldn't he be raising flop or betting more on the turn?

I am thinking he has something like pair + straight draw or maybe bottom two pair. Call both streets and hope for a cheap showdown.

He can’t raise flop since it checked to him. Given his profile I could see him betting small with straights since there’s no flush draw. I do think you’re correct he would bet pretty big typically with sets or 2p that are afraid of straights. Although, I do think any bet over $150 appears even bigger than it is relative to pot at 1/3

Based on the read you're saying he doesn't "have it" - $90 into $320 on a wet board gives great odds to draw out even if he has the nuts and he wouldn't want that. Looks like a probe. So I'd call flop.
Turn is weird, again it's not pot size bet but is feeling more like a "boil the frog" price to set up a river shove with another great price.

now, With the preflop raise/call this feels a lot like QQ/JJ, maybe TT/99 but wouldnt he bet more with the sets?
V3 is gone so I'm not folding (not yet at least)

Given your description of V1 and the action so far his most likely holdings are 77, JJ, JTs, maybe QQ or KK
All kinds of rivers could improve him from his likely one pair
If he shoves his last $580 on the river are you calling? Probably not.
Might be best to just shove over the top right now.

I those are his most likely holdings, why arent you calling down and letting him bluff?

He almost never has 2 pair or a straight unless he has some read on H that H just tries to buy straddle pots. He was first to call the $80 raise. Everybody else's range can go down as they get to come along for the ride but I don't see him calling with T9s here. In my player pool 90% of his range are pocket pairs after preflop action.

If you run the equities vs 88-QQ we actually come out with 50% equity. There's always some spazz and almost never QJ that cancel each other out IMO. If you take away QQ, we are a 2-1 dog. Sick spot. I probably fold because I hate feeding to ABC players when they are nutted.

Noob perspective:

3-bet sizing seems a little big pre, but don't hate it since you're kind of in-between position-wise.

Flop: I don't love the board texture -- there are a lot of medium pocket/pairs and suited connectors in Vs' open/flatting and double-flatting range that now make 2-pairs or straights -- but this is absolutely a call, especially since you're closing the action, getting an insane price, and it's plausible one of the others has a worse overpair (most at 1/3 aren't 4-betting QQ/JJ) and/or a pair/draw combo (JT)

Turn: Still hate this spot. V still could very easily have a set, 2-pair, or flopped straight, and now is sizing up a bit knowing that you liked your hand enough to call flop before a brick turn. Would JT or JJ do this or would they check back enough of the time? The only saving grace is that there are more QQ/JJ than TT/99/88, and that I'd imagine he'd have bet bigger on the flop with a set on a very wet board.

I really wouldn't enjoy calling and then facing a river shove. I probably spaz-shove myself to get it over with (not saying this is good advice, just what I probably would do).

I'm worried he actually makes a straight on the river. I am no expert though. I beat the rake in most games but not much more unless there are 2 or more bad players at the table.

What does our read say about villain tendency to 3barrel with a worse hand? Doesn't seem likely so you can fold all but K rivers.
+If we are 50% against a range of QQ-88 then turn is a call.

Hm good point. I hadn’t considered that aspect of a potential check back on River if he had a worse hand. I’d say his River bluff frequency with bad to no showdown is probably 20-30% when he gets here. My only concern is I’ve seen this guy do weird bets with worse (e.g. he bet A6 on the River when the board came out 4 10 A Q J and then thought he was good when he called. Granted that wasn’t a big River bet, maybe 1/4 pot but still odd. I would hate for him to spaz out and shove with top pair here half bluffing and half hoping for value …. I’m not sure how often he would jam it all in though so I’ll give that a 10ish% frequency as well)

TL;DR 30-40% chance of him shoving River with hands I beat…. That’s probably still the right price to call his turn bet….. and then I guess fold to River shoves? It feel so icky to call that turn and fold rivers that don’t make the board any worse

Oof, if that's right then you'd have to call the river shove too...

.35(+1090+580) - .65(580) = +207.50

Maybe the sizing tell on river bet might help?

I call.

I plan to check-call blank rivers. If he shoves OTR I probably find a fold. I def fold OTR to significant action after a bad river card. I think a bluff is less likely on the river, because his "busted draws" include hands with legitimate value, like JJ, or QTs. I could also see AT take this line for value. OTR, all those hands would likely check behind, or make a modest value bet. Remember also that a 2 is a great card for you, potentially counterfeiting 2-pairs.

As mentioned I am only slightly better than break even most of the time so I am here to learn.
I am really going to hate any of 6,7,8,9,T,J,Q or a heart on the river. That's a lot of cards.
I am thus not a fan of sticking in a third of my stack on the turn when I plan to fold a lot of rivers to a shove from V
So I think either shove now or fold now are better than calling now.
Willing to admit I am way wrong but please tell me why.

So what actually happened in the hand?

I called. River was another 10. Absolutely disgusting runout. He went all in and I honestly wasn’t sure what to do. I figured it was possible he had a naked jack or like a9 that played stupid but idk… I sigh called and he showed j 10. I think a bad call all things considered. In retrospect I think I should fold River to any 7, 10, j, q… probably an ace? I’m
Not sure what i do if the River completes the bdfd. Everything else I think I have to sigh call.