table is 10 handed. live game I've put a dodgy converted hand in.

2/5 nl


CO: $770
Hero (BB): 1080

Pre Flop: ($7.50) Hero is BB with K K
UTG calls 5, UTG+1 calls 5mp+1 calls 5, , 3 folds, CO raises to $30, Hero raises to $125, everyone else folds CO calls $125,

Flop: ($255) 8 Q 4 (2 players)
Hero bet $150, CO calls $150

Turn: ($555)10 Hero checks, Co bets 300

Hero?????


first reads: this is my local casino game which I play at constantly and CO is a buddy of mine which I always talk strategy with. He's a very aggressive and solid player however we rarely seem to end up in pots together (obv no softplaying though). This game is pretty loose and I play like an absolute rock so my 3b range here is basically AA,KK, AKs, in this spot and he would definetly know this. This is the first 3b pot I've ever played with him and after he flats my 3b I feel it's a medium to large pair set mining though I've never seen him take this line with me.

the flop is really dry and I bet a bit smaller to see what he'll do. I have never really seen him slowplay a big hand after the flop against other people and he really likes getting it in with a made hand. However, my range is sooo tight that if he did spike a set (or two pair, mildly mildly possible) flat calling would probably make him more money since I barrell frequently but don't go to the wall with an overpair especially with someone who will only call down solid value against my range. Regardless the flat call sent huge alarm bells off

the turn is basically a brick but I"m out of position and another bet commits me to the pot. I figure if I check and he bets I'm smashed but if he checks behind he has a medium strength hand like AQ. I expect him to throw away AQ to my 3b 9 out of 10 times since my range is so defined in this spot and I'd expect him to check back only TPTK or TPGK. The bet is also a bit fishy as he's holding 200 back which he'll definetly stick in on the river so i'm looking at
$500 total to get to showdown.

only other info that might help is that he's stuck ~3 buyins this session. He started playing really crazy over the next few hands but had done nothing out of line as of yet.

so the range I can give him is QQ, 44, 88, AcQc , AcKc, 1010, JJ or maaaaaybe J9 (is possible for him to randomly make some massive calls with gutters and such though I'm not sure if he'd have a crack at it against me) also can't put him on AA as he would have 4b me guaranteed. maybe KK though highly unlikely obv.

this could be super sick level because basically it's the first time the situation has occured between us and he knows that I know that he knows I"m pretty exploitable here.

thoughts?

With an SPR of under 3, you're getting it in. After the flop you have less than a PSB left. Check on the turn is fine, now just get it in.

you have to get it in. Id say "all in" and prey I dont hear "CALL" real fast. You cant fold here IMO.

if he has 99 or JJ he could play it the same way. if he put you on AK that way he bets the turn to not let you hit a free 6 outer on the turn.

i'd say if you check here, you have to raise all-in, because he has just 200 left.
if you play that scared with KK he might do right to bet the turn.

could he have AA in this spot or would he 4bet pre?

"could he have AA in this spot or would he 4bet pre?"
from OP
"also can't put him on AA as he would have 4b me guaranteed"
reading helps.

if your 3betting range is only AA, KK, and AKs and he knows this why would he 4bet with AA? If hes good AA is in his range.

I think I shove the T. Only hand he can call with is QQ.

Checking is weak with an SPR of 1. Maybe your bud will feel bad for you and give you cab fair home.

shove, he has AQ

for a guy you describe as being a good player..you certanly think hes capable of some donkish things. Chasing a gutter ball??? For 150 when hes only got 5 hundred behind...

I'd definitely ship it after you check the turn. When you make a smallish continuation bet like that on the flop and check the turn, your buddy could easily be putting you on AK or a hand that whiffed. Just because he puts in the large bet on the turn doesn't mean that he's ahead, but if he's got AQ or JJ or 99 he might think he's got the best hand. I understand that you've posted that you think he'd throw away AQ preflop in this spot, but you'd need to be absolutely certain that is the case. I'd eliminate 44 and 88 from his range if he's going to toss AQ.

While it is true that he could have a set here, I think it's less likely than the other hands he could make this bet with... if he's got Kings beat in this spot I'd chalk it up to a cooler - but I'm never folding this since you've definitely under-repped your hand post flop so far.

One other thing also if he's your buddy - there's a large possibility that he'd open up his range just for one hand to try and outplay you postflop. I know this because I've done it to my friends before... because you know them, they tend to give you too much credit for a good hand with the reasoning that you've outlined: "he'd never play this hand this way, etc". I'm not saying that it's definitely happened here, but I'd put it in the 10-20 percent of the time range.

Got to get it in.

alllll innnnn. As mentioned by others, our hand is way underrepresented here.

why check the turn? just shove and pay off his set (u can't fold)

I don't mind a check. Lets our villain think his AQ, JJ or even 99 is good. If we shove most of the time we only get called by hands that beat us.

oops obv forgot about that line while writing.

if you really think villain knows that your range is ONLY AK AA KK here, then it is truly tough spot and is difinitely NOT a fistpump ship it in.

I might even bet the turn 225 and fold to a ship, BUT only if we think villain absolutely puts us on AA KK AK. REason being, villain isnt calling pre with AQ if he thinks heros 3 bet range is that tight. Villain will have QQQ KK or AA

AND, if villain is very good, we could c/f the turn since villain should not bet JJ and TT if checked to. Betting for protection is stupid there. I know it sounds rediculous but we are talking about a rediculous perceived range and this changes everything.


Ranges take precedence over SPR, but i just wonder how accurate OP is on what heros perceived range really is.

IMPOSSIBLE

270 to call 1005 (u have to be good ~20% of the time)

this needs more attention.

OP clearly posted this hand with enough detail and info that its not just a case of pot odds and spr's.

Im really curious, why is c/r the turn better then just betting?

-To get value from his draws???

If OP is correct, shouldnt villain be checking behind all his draws unless he really thinks he can get hero to fold KK, AA by betting 300 into 550?

That seems like some serious levelling, in which case I agree that, AA is in villains range because he is that good.

All in all, I really think you should just bet the turn. I kind of think that your friend is just trying to outlevel you with a bluff cause he's stuck a few buyins and knows that you know that he knows.

Interesting spot tho

why, because we checked the turn?

Is this true even with OP's description of how well him and villain know eachothers game?

Because of our very small C-bet on the flop. Our check on the turn reinforces this perception of a weak/scared hand.

This is the main issue obviously. But I don't think you can rule out a smart villain using previous history to his advantage and turning the screws on our tight hero play.

You said it yourself: TT is part of his range and makes sense. Same goes for JJ and QQ.

The only question i ask myself here: Is he aggro enough to always bet the turn when checked too ? Will he try to barrel me off JJ on the river with an UI AK ? In this case i like the check.

Anyway, either check/fold flop or accept the inevitable All-In.

Preflop: I would reraise a slightly smaller amount. The full pot size reraise could scare out some hands that you would prefer to call. I don't think this is a huge error, though.

Flop: I think you played this street well. The smallish bet is good because you don't have any draws to price out and the small bet could easily be incorrectly read as weak by your opponent.

Turn: I would check with the intention of shoving if your opponent bets. A smart opponent is going to bet almost every time you check here, and an aggro one will bet even more than that. Once you call the bet you're pretty much telling your opponent you're going all the way with your hand, so you might as well get it in and prevent some weird backdoor draw or an A from putting you in an awkward spot on the river.

Just my opinion...