Except OP basically said he's readless and doesn't put much stock in the one assessment he got. I'm not saying V has to have 99, im including it in my range to be more conservative because he could have it and saying he can't ever have 99 in his range is little ridiculous IMO (especially considering the whale may snap him off). If we can get the equity to call with 99 in his range (which we can), it's moot anyway

Preflop is bad. inflating the pot with KJ OOP is-EV, but if you really must isolate Whale I'd make it $60-$70 when you are this deep, better chance of getting HU and you get some Meta out of it. The button will almost always call 40 more and have a significant advantage as he will be uncapped post flop.

Flop is grey area. I probably sigh fold, but its very close given the ranges previous posts have already pokerstoved. Try to soul read.

I'm less inclined to call here because I discount J9. It's the most stereotypical "I haz the button let me raise this drawing hand" Where as people limp call QTs most of the time.
So I think he has a few less J9 combos. Also vs described table I disagree with ppl saying he always raises 99. I love limping to set mine at these types of tables, when nobody folds even in limped pots.

So people will raise J9 (suited or not) but will limp QTs OTB, a marginally better hand? Are you sure this just isn't a you thing, Jewrilla? I'm not following the rationale for this. Both hands are one-gappers that play similarly post-flop.

Hmm regarding preflop i tend to think its closer than the gist of this thread makes it out to be. utg whale in 3-4 orbits has limped EVERY hand and doesn't seem to mind GII w/TPWK stuff. We're never attempting to isolate that? I think some argument can be made for making the raise slightly larger....

KJo is pretty much the bottom i do it with tho fwiw. I'd be curious what others' noncheckbehind ranges would be

Extremely tough spot.

I guess we could eliminate flopped sets from both of their ranges given preflop action. That leaves us with flush draws, flopped straights, two pair hands that we could be up against. But is V really shoving two pair on this board after facing a bet and call? Also, UTG could easily be slowplaying the nuts with position on you.

I guess QT is one hand you should really worry about that is probably in both player's preflop limping ranges. KJ, you're chopping with. And J9/K9 probably fold preflop. The NFD is the only hand you're really good against.

With two players in there, I puke fold.

im not sure its awful. id probably overlimp there as well.

Standard disclaimer that it depends on table, but at your described table in your position I'm raising 88+, KQs, AJs+, AQo+

no way id raise 88/99 prob not even TT. just gonna set up a c/f flop line like always... much rather have KJ than 88 if i was forced to raise

I play in this same game all the time. I agree with Jewrilla that if you're going to raise out of the blinds with the K-blocker I'd go exactly $70, you're gonna get folds nearly every time. Def don't overuse the play obviously.

On the flop though this is a definite fold, too good of a chance either whale or V has 99/Q10. Best case scenario is whale is on the spade draw and V has KJ/KQ/J9. But you're repping pretty big, so it makes me think the V would likely call with 2pair/pair + SD hands.

In my experience playing in this same game is you're prolly drawing to another K or J.

This is a really poorly played hand.

Firstly, I am completely baffled by your sizing, particularly with a whale to your left. You would be better served by this thread by reviewing your thoughts on the hand BEFORE your stack off decision moreso than the decision itself.

Given above you have zero data on V and he zero data on you. He is also unlikely yet aware of the whale (unless he has history) which would otherwise give you some weight to assign to his range. This too is quite important...
.
...not just because he's shoving on your super strong/narrow line, but because he's doing so while you block a handful of his J9/K9 combos. So, he's narrowed down to a point where you'll have to include all FDs down to 87ss just in his range to feel remotely decent about a call but you still have the whale left to act behind which may do more to hurt your pot share when he overcalls a super fishy range that likely includes all FDs, T8o, etc.
Lacking a set makes for far fewer dirty outs assuming V (and potentially whale) are on draws, which further sinks your equity and makes calling that much more marginal.

I get why most itt are compelled to call, but I'm all for avoiding compounding mistakes for stacks just becasue the math looks close in a spot where we have one of the worst calling hands we can find to defend against given action and two cards to come.

How is btn uncapped post flop? We can easily omit KK/JJ from his range...

Pre: I normally don't mind popping it occasionally to pick up $25 uncontested but it's counterproductive here and here's why: we haven't seat selected well at least with respect to the whale who we want to see flops with. So when we raise an amount the whale will call we entice the players with good position on the whale (and us) to come along leading to a bloated multiway pot oop. Contrast that to us on the left of the whale who completes a SB over several limps. When we pop that our opponents can't limp/call knowing that they get to take a flop with the whale. We are more likely to get folds or ISO the whale.

Nonetheless we bloat it pre and smash the flop like it's our job. Cool.

Now V shoves 1250 into 480 if I got it right. So we are calling $1100 to win 1730. Just over 1.5:1 on a call if it goes heads up. So we need 40% equity to make a profitable call when it goes heads up.

I'm dismissing sets and KJ from btns over limping range.

Giving him nuts, combo draws NFDs and and few midling SCs that flopped FD we are right around the equity.

PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.8.1.1

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 39.7% 39.3% 0.74% [KhJd]
Player 2: 60.3% 60.0% 0.74% {As9s-As2s, QTs, QsJs, JsTs, T8s, 8s7s, QTo}

Board: [Ks Jc 9s ? ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 500000 trials

Now whether his range is weighted more one way than another can't easily be determined as we are basically read less. We do know that villain is also read less and only knows that we jacked it pre and led into the field. So his semibluffs SHOULD be huge combo draws with big equity. Or 2p+. We have a soaking wet flop with 2 interested parties.

Im going to assume that when whale comes along our EV either improves or remains about the same.

Note that if v is actually passive this actually becomes a fold as he's shoving less naked FDs, begins to have 99 sets in his range and his shoving range becomes more nuttish. I'm gonna go with our buddy's "aggro" Intel, eliminate sets and include FDs and I call now cry later.

preflop is super bad

flop is a standard call. He has Ax Flushdraw like 90% of the time.

OP played the hand fine. No one showed any strength preflop. Any hand that dominates KJ should have raised. KJ is ahead of most limping ranges. I don't have a problem checking KJ in the BB. I would normally raise pre for value though.

V2's shove looks like a semibluff squeeze. He almost never has a set because he would have raised pre with 99+. He would limp the button and shove the flop with A7s-A2s and some other random spade hands like Q8s/T8s/T7s/87s. I think he raises from the button with QTs. KJ is slightly ahead of a range of 12 QTo combos and 10 flush draw combos. Villain also takes this line with some K9/J9. KJ becomes a clear favorite once you throw in a couple worse two pair combos.

I expect the whale's range to consist of mostly draws and some worse one or two pair hands. I think this is a slam dunk call, albeit high variance.

Yeah I omitted K9. Adding all remaining K9 combos increases hero equity another 5% from what I posted above.

Does simply being ahead of everyone's limping ranges justify raising a trouble hand like this (that too OOP) everytime? Does their calling tendency or positional advantage or postflop skills not negate this "ahead of most limping ranges" argument?

Did you add K9o or just K9s? Villain is likely mucking K9o pre both before and after the raise.

Yah I'm glad you said this. In all likelihood KJo is not ahead of the field considering any PP or Ax is ahead. Supplement that with our poor position and KJo becomes a pretty easy check from the BB.

I used to advocate raising KJo from the BB at 1/2, but I've changed my point of view at 2/5 and think it's just too thin with too few pros versus the many cons. I've gotten a lot more conservative from the blinds and have limited my raises to legit hands and Axs or Kxs type squeezes.

What makes KJ a trouble hand? It is easily dominated and has massive RIO potential. We should expect all AK/KQ/AJ would have raised pre. The threat of domination is minimal.

Doing anything 'every time' in poker is usually a mistake. Limp-calling tendencies, poor position, and skill edge (or lack there of) would and should factor into the decision to check or raise. Obviously it is situation dependent. I'd raise in OP's spot because a hyper loose whale in the hand will call with worse Kx and Jx 200BB deep.

I don't do this, b/c I can fold when I hit a Q. I just think the general population prefers to raise J9 bc 'I haz live cards' where as QT is dominated by most other playable Qx.

Hmmm I'm not sure about this assumption. The 1/2 games I play have a decent amount of passive players, and hands like KQ/AJ would be classic hands to limp/call with, whereas the same types of players might be limp/folding K9/J8/J7 type hands.

Under these assumptions, raising KJ is particularly bad because we're forcing folds from hands we have dominated and bloating the pot with hands that dominate us.

Fair enough, he's capped preflop. I misused the term. What I was getting at that we don't narrow his range much making it 45 when we are 1k deep. He could hit or represent a wide array of flops. So either don't raise or make it 60-70.

K9s makes sense and I agree villain really should muck K9o after the raise. The point is two K9s combo change the EV calculation from borderline +EV to overwhelmingly +EV.

Adding some J9 combos tips the scales toward a call even more.

I fold this, based on sensitivity analysis.

I concur we're probably slightly above breakeven to call -- IF our assumptions are reasonably close to correct.

But I think it's very unlikely that V is doing this as a stone bluff. So if our assumptions are wrong, they're wrong in a way that makes the call strongly negative EV. In other words, the range we're putting him on is pretty close to the best range we could assign him in order to make the call positive EV.

So we've got a slightly positive situation if our assumptions (which are based on very little data) are correct and a strongly negative call if our assumptions are flawed.

I think we actually maximize EV by folding.

Obviously, as we gather more info on V over time, we'll have more confidence in our assumptions and therefore more confidence in using them for big plays.

true the whale will call, but that will lead to a chain of calls. and you'll be oop to each and everyone of them, and then get put into spots like these where you have no idea if your hand is best.