2/5 deepstacked @ Borgata on Sunday night

I haz tag image. I cover villain ($1300ish)

UTG ($1000) is a mid aged white whale that has played every hand pre in the few orbits played, has already been stacked and reloaded. He limps

3 more limps, around 1k each

Villain (young white grinderish looking) limps on BTN. He has not sat long and I'm mostly going readless. FWIW a fellow grinder had informed me prior to this hand that "that kid plays pretty aggressive", which I didn't put much stock in as that doesn't tell me much by itself.

I am BB w/red KJo, I raise to $45. Pretty standard spot to jack it up even OOP imo, with UTG limping 100% and assumed weak ranges behind him, but if someone wants to comment on pre, cool....

Whale calls, 2 more call including villain OTB.

Flop KJ9

I bet $150, whale snap calls, fold, villain quickly SHOVES. Seems calm.

????

Without knowing anything other than "the kid plays pretty aggressive", its a pretty easy fold for me. In the past I have lost lots of money with 2 pair hands on boards like this. If the 9s was a 4s I would call thinking hes most likely on a flush draw, but here I think he has a wide range of combo draws or he could already have QT and not want to be outdrawn by the whale. Even better, he probably knows the whale will call him with K9, KQ, KT or whatever so hes just getting it in now. Id be much more comfortable shoving in here than calling an all in 200BBs deep.

And, yeah, I dont like your raise preflop.

seems like an easy get in with whale behind, btn lacks nut combos that he should iso whale with, can really easily just be a weaker player himself, dont think this hand needs much analysis.

would be more interesting if you had a slightly weaker hand.

I call.

Our boy on the button never had KK or JJ if he is aggressive as we have been told. And probably not 99..

Obviously QT is the nuts, but against two oppenents would he shove so big? My guess is he would be raising, but probably does't want to knock out the weak draw hands .

I would guess an aggressive V from the button has a marginal hand w/ a fair amount of PE and FE.. Perhaps QJ, KQs, maybe even J9.

Call it off. You have 2nd nuts on a wet board that an aggressive opponent could have all kinds of draw hands.

I understand why you raised pre, but it isn't something that I would frequently do. It is so hard to make money OOP against multiple opponents and you are often bloating a multiway pot that you are going to need to give up on the flop. If you have a realistic chance of getting heads up with UTG whale, I like it. If you thought $45 would accomplish that, the bet is fine. Just make a note that next time you should seriously consider $80 or so and see if you can iso the whale somehow.

Agree with previous poster that without the whale in the hand I'm folding. With whale in hand, I think button's value range expands considerably and I can't see myself folding here. We'll be flipping with a combo draw a lot, but many of the V's combo draws have a J and therefore aren't quite as high equity as he thinks they are, since we block his trips and two pair outs.

check pre

The raise pre is by no means standard. I'm not a fan of it, and I am much more liberal with raising from the blinds when limped to than are most posters.

On the flop, I'm pretty confident eliminating KK/JJ/99 from this young aggressive player's range, so under that assumption I think we have to call because only precisely QT is beating us. The only problem is that if we are ahead, we are probably only marginally ahead against some kind of combo draw (unless V has another 2 pair combo), but if we are behind, then V has QT and we are drawing super thin.

You have top 2 sets in your range and he still jammed on you! Best case, he's got QJss or JTss; worst case (and more likely), you're crushed

V is probably assuming you can't fold KK+, JJ, AK, which is a lot of your range given the action.

Edit:
So I actually just ran the numbers. V shoved 955, pot is 1440, we need to call 805, we only need 36% equity

It's actually a lot closer than I thought, if his range is {99, QT, KJ, K9s, J9s, QJss, JTss} were actually at 32.5%. If V is aggro enough to have a like 4 Axss/Qxss/Txss draws, then it really could push this to a call

The only problem? Thats a big problem.

If V can have QJ or JT, then why can't V also have K9 or J9? To me these hands might also GII on the flop after the Whale calls, as V could likely believe we have a big king or AA and the whale is drawing.

Yes it is, which is why I'm not thrilled about calling. But the more I'm thinking about it, I think V having an inferior 2 pair is also possible and that's a big deal. W/o the possibility of V having an inferior two pair we are slightly ahead (of a lot of combos) or way behind (QT alone). But if you throw in 2 pair combos, we are now way ahead of these combos which greatly increases the +EV of the call.

let's do some math (and this is the point where most threads die...). if i added up right... we have to call about 800-805 to win 1440? so we need about 36% equity?

let's make some assumptions. QT, 99 discounted 50%, K9s/J9s, AXss, QsJs, Q8ss, JTss, T8ss, T7ss... our equity is 40%?

easy call!

don't like those assumptions? change them and compare to 36%

V is shoving ~1100, we need to call ~950. Prolly still calling though.

didn't catch that fist time through.. risk 1105 to win 1740 (thereabouts)... need closer to 39% equity..

much closer and dependent on how many combo draws in range. still have enough to call vs. range i originally suggested.. BARELY!

It's ambiguous. I took V to have 1k because OP said he covers V (1300), which I took as Heros stack is 1300 because he later said a a bunch of guys limp with 1k, so I took V being one of them, especially since V just sat down and Borgata deep stack is max BI of 1000 (i.e., you can't buy in to match the max stack)

good point. so, its either 36% or 39% as our break-even equity mark, depending on size of villain's stack.

Yeah I really like this analysis and it probably comes down to which exact assumptions you make. The only assumption listed that I can't get behind is including 99 (even at 50%). In my experience young aggressive V's are raising that all day.

He's new to the table and there is a known whale + several others already in the hand, raising accomplishes nothing that limping and bloating the pot post flop can't also accomplish. He also probably has little fold equity on later streets and 8 high runnouts are pretty rare

If he's new to the table, then how does he know everyone will limp/call, thus bloating the pot? To me, the standard play from a young aggressive player is to raise w/ 99 with hopes of narrowing the field. Otherwise, V is playing 99 no different than 22 and 99 has too much value for that.

Eh the spot is really gross the more I think about it because BTN limping range here really shouldn't include JTss etc and certainly not AJss, but also not 99 or QTs. Still, there's probably enough J9, J8ss etc in there to balance out the QTo. Plus I'm doubtful he's blasting this way with the nuts IP, even the whale will think twice abt calling

Grunch

You are up against QT and Axs 100% of the time. There are 16 combos of QT out there, though only 4 QTS, vs. a smaller subset of Axs that wouldn't raise pre (like A2-A7). I don't run equity calcs or anything. It may be a small mistake to call it off, but after accounting for spazz factor and other combos we may be omitting, I call it off in real time with the possible overlay from the whale.

We are never drawing dead and I'm rolled for the game so I'll happily reload if necessary. His shove is looking to employ maximum FE which leans me more toward him having the nut flush draw.

Call

We don't know if he would raise 99 pre over ~4 limpers or l/c it - it's not an unreasonable line either way - but including it is more conservative.

Who cares if there are 4 limpers? Not raising 99 OTB is awful. No way this described villain ever has 99.

I am glad someone finally pointed that out.

All of the equity equations are done with a static pot. But in this case, there is a >0% chance of the pot increasing in size.

Any increase in pot size greatly increases our value in the hand (as the whales chances in this hand are most likely signigant less than ours, and unknown vs V)

preflop raise is bad, flop is a standard call