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JJ vs limp 4B

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03-27-2022 , 12:32 PM

Kineav2344

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2022 Posts: 49

Odd hand. Not sure I took the right approach here so looking for guidance.

Villain 1: limps utg1. Older guy, definitely a regular.

Several additional limpers.

Villain 2: raises to $11 in SB. Older guy, played very straightforward

Hero: JJ in BB. 3B to $33.

Villain 1: 4B to $60 leaving ~$130 behind.

Folds around back to me. I think for 20 seconds and fold. Limp 4B screams huge hand. Would have been about $27 into about ~$110. What’s appropriate here? Are these odds ok to set mine? It may be the case considering if a Jack hits I’m most likely getting his whole stack. Is folding ok? Bad?

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03-27-2022 , 12:42 PM

Nh,gg.

grinder

Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 402

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kineav2344

...Are these odds ok to set mine? It may be the case considering if a Jack hits I’m most likely getting his whole stack. Is folding ok?

No. It's roughly 8.5 to 1 to make your set, and you sometimes don't win when you make it.

Folding is standard, to described Vs.

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03-27-2022 , 01:54 PM

DEKE01

adept

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 951

FOLD.
FOLD.

But if you can't force yourself to fold, GII for a 5 card chance to find your set. A call is the terrible choice and AI Is only a really bad choice.

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03-27-2022 , 02:02 PM

ChaosInEquilibrium

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 3,356

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEKE01

FOLD.
FOLD.

But if you can't force yourself to fold, GII for a 5 card chance to find your set. A call is the terrible choice and AI Is only a really bad choice.

Villain has AA. The only viable play besides fold is to call to hit a set. All-in is spew.

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03-27-2022 , 02:07 PM

DEKE01

adept

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 951

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium

Villain has AA. The only viable play besides fold is to call to hit a set. All-in is spew.

With bigger stacks I would agree that a call was less awful than AI. But we are still arguing over what tastes worse, a **** sandwich or ****s kabob.

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03-27-2022 , 02:09 PM

ChaosInEquilibrium

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 3,356

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEKE01

With bigger stacks I would agree that a call was less awful than AI. But we are still arguing over what tastes worse, a **** sandwich or ****s kabob.

If Villain has AA or KK at this stack depth:
Fold is 0EV
Call is close to 0EV if V always stacks off postflop.
All-in is very - EV.

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03-27-2022 , 02:12 PM

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 26,036

A limp/4bet is is AA the vast majority of the time. Easy fold and move on.

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03-27-2022 , 02:18 PM

DEKE01

adept

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 951

If hero can't fold pre, which i still emphasize is optimum by a wide margin, how is he going to fold for $130 on the flop, especially if he has an overpair? Your EV calc is based on how you play, not hero's play.
At least if V has AK, QQ or KK, hero has some non zero chance of FE.

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03-27-2022 , 03:00 PM

slyless

Hand Evaluation Expert

Join Date: Dec 2021 Posts: 2,768

We have
12.5% chance to flopping a set+ against AA-KK

Spoiler:

If we assume that Villain will give us his stack 100% of the time when we hit set+, then the dirty EV of our call is:

EV= 0.125*267 - (1-0.125)*27 = $9.75

But:

But we don't have 100% equity even if we hit a set. AA-KK will beat our set at showdown 9% of the time.

Spoiler:
We will pay the rake
He probably won't give up his stack 100% of the time.

Therefore, the EV of our call will be close to 0.

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03-27-2022 , 03:50 PM

#10

Kineav2344

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2022 Posts: 49

Thanks for the input on this

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03-27-2022 , 08:28 PM

#11

Imjustrunningbad

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 692

Lol fold… what do you think he has

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