Villain: Middle-aged, female reg who is a major calling station. She will call down with as low as middle pair. She is not very aggressive, although I once saw her try to bluff a spazzy LAG out of a nearly $200 river pot by betting $20

Hero: Middle aged white guy who has been a reg at this game for the past couple of months. Villain likely sees me as TAG, although I don't know how much this would really affect her play. I have $165 and Villain has me covered.

1-1 NL, 8-handed...UTG has posted a $2 staddle...UTG+1 calls $2, MP calls $2, folded to me in the CO and I raise to $25 with JJ (raising to something like $15 would likely have caused a 3-4 way clusterf*ck)...folded to Villain who calls $25 in the SB, everyone else folds.


Flop ($58) 2 players

358r

Villain checks, I bet $50 (I could've bet less, although I figured if she would call $25-$35 with worse hand she would call $50)...Villain c/r me all-in

According to Miller et al (2007), with an SPR of 2 on this flop I should certainly be looking to get it all-in with an overpair, especially to a calling station. However, once she c/r, I'm probably a huge dog. But should I fold getting 3:1 for my last $85?

Easy fold---when a passive villain spazzes out like this, I'd give her credit for a set almost always. IMO the maths are interesting, but why not save the $85 when you are drawing to two outs.

I'm not a huge fan of the preflop bet size. do you think it gives away information about your hand? Given that you made it so big, though, you have to wonder a) how aware she is of sizing and b) in that light, what she's flat-calling with out of the blinds (with a bunch of people left to act) and then check-raising the flop. What do you put her on?

I think against a standard positional aggressive player, the check raise here gets the max value from hands cbetting air. that's not as common a play live, though, and especially given your read as this player being mostly passive I'm not particularly inclined to believe she's check raising here with something other than QQ+ or a set. OTOH, you are getting 3:1. I'd be pleasantly surprised to win one time in four here...

When you bet so big on a dry flop with not much money behind you basically leave your opponent two options-allin or fold. You can't take the allin raise to be the same strength as you normally would from a calling station.

I'd think about what she can cold call for $25 before I made any bet on the flop here.

If you wanted the bet/fold, you should have sized your bets smaller. Since even loose-passives can think, "i flopped an overpair with 9-9 or 10-10 and i'm not folding for the last $80 either way, so I might as well put the rest in now," you should call.

Although it may not be comparable, since this was a blind hand, she hates to limp-fold, and I've seen her limp-call $10-$15 PF with hands like any ace, any two suited, any two Broadway, any pair, etc. So, for this hand I think her range would likely include 53s and 85s, if not actually 83s as well.

pre flop, I make big raises to isolate a bad player....here if you think she will call your JJ with a wide range its fine for a $25 bet...but don't bet $25...because you only want one caller...but don't do it against 3 random opponets because you want 1 caller with a 10% range rather the 3 callers with 30% ranges....you make much more money against 3 players with 30% ranges...

On the flop once you bet 50 with 90 behind... when she shoves if you call the finall pot will be about 330 and you have to call 90 so you will need about 27% equity.

you reason that she's passive and only shove sets....I reason that on this board she almost never has a set...why on earth would she shove as set HU on a dry low board... It's much more likely she has one low pair, and figures she does not want you to hit your A or K or whatever...

Sure my reasoning is a bit over the top with bad players, but it enough of a consideration for the call here to be profitable.