JJ tough spot... what to do what to do - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

I don't think so. We are likely ahead and betting for value. Given stack sizes, we call the V c-r imo.

A set or 2-pr would not check and risk another spade OTT. Even a sm flush might not check as they are worried about being counterfeited OTT. There are plenty of FDs in their range that hero is ahead of.

Quote

06-10-2011 , 05:57 PM

#27

Pay4Myschool

Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 7,462

Spoiler:

Quote

06-10-2011 , 06:22 PM

#28

2OutsNoProb

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 15,991

Fold here. He is not doing this in a live game with a range you are in good shape against. You cannot be calling and expecting to see red TT or Qh9h. He can have sets, flushes, or combo draws (which may have one or two overcards to your hand).

Quote

06-10-2011 , 06:25 PM

#29

2OutsNoProb

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 15,991

I love how everyone auto-assumes that this can never be a big hand. What games do you guys play in where people wouldn't do this if they has QsJs or 99 or 98 or T7 or even the coinflip AsQc?

Quote

06-10-2011 , 06:40 PM

#30

quesuerte

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 4,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb

I love how everyone auto-assumes that this can never be a big hand. What games do you guys play in where people wouldn't do this if they has QsJs or 99 or 98 or T7 or even the coinflip AsQc?

I don't see too much of that ITT to be honest. There is a huge difference between a resigned snippity snap and a fist pump snippity snap. This is definitely the former. I get a call on stove given my ranges but expect to see monsters quite often.

Quote

06-10-2011 , 06:46 PM

#31

Zeth

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 6,763

Given stack sizes/SPR it's a puke spot but probably a call. Really hate calling off my stack here though, in my experience this type of player is rarely semibluffing if we haven't seen him semibluff his draws before.

Quote

06-10-2011 , 07:03 PM

#32

AintNoLimit

Coach live/online NLHE

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6,399

Standard spot over and over. Dont bet until you know how to react to all options.

This is a bet pot/call for your stack.

And yes, we are rarely ahead here when shoved on. Thats why we pot it. We will flush out over sets/straights and 2 pair enough to warrant the final call of around ~90 bucks.

Quote

06-10-2011 , 07:37 PM

#33

Zeth

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 6,763

If "it makes our decision to call snap easy if he shoves" is the entire argument for betting pot on the turn, I don't find that convincing.

Quote

06-10-2011 , 07:44 PM

#34

2OutsNoProb

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 15,991

Quote:

I don't see too much of that ITT to be honest. There is a huge difference between a resigned snippity snap and a fist pump snippity snap. This is definitely the former. I get a call on stove given my ranges but expect to see monsters quite often.

Boy, was I wrong!

Quote:

Given that you have the J im calling here
Villian likely wouldnt play a flopped flush like this (unless its a super lower SC flush, but since most are onboard, I doubt he called a raise pre with like 3s2s).
I can see villian showing up As and a pair

Its kind of hard to assign him a range here but I think we're ahead alot here...

Quote:

EZ call given the info.

Quote:

Easy easy call. Would normally fold two red jacks but given read I'd probably tank call with JJ, expecting it to be +EV by no more than like $15.

Quote:

CALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL LLLLLL
Worst case scenerio A FLUSH draw with pair... you have good odds...
plus you said his a loser and he knows what the game is..

Quote

06-10-2011 , 08:05 PM

#35

kowboykiller

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 893

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb

Boy, was I wrong!

GTL all day ay day

Quote

06-10-2011 , 08:10 PM

#36

Pay4Myschool

Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 7,462

It's funny how people's opinions on what I should do here change when I put the spoiler out there... just sayin

Quote

06-10-2011 , 08:19 PM

#37

Pay4Myschool

Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 7,462

Also, JJ against a set is only about a 60/40 dog and given the $ committed on flop before the raise I still should call and thats in the mid/top of villains range

Quote

06-10-2011 , 08:37 PM

#38

kowboykiller

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 893

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool

It's funny how people's opinions on what I should do here change when I put the spoiler out there... just sayin

ldo

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool

Also, JJ against a set is only about a 60/40 dog and given the $ committed on flop before the raise I still should call and thats in the mid/top of villains range

Yeah, we're never really crushed here (besides better flopped flush) - unless we're up V1 having 2p/set AND V2 having better flush/FD. Unlikely imo. Anyone else - any stats? I still need to dl stove.

Anyway price is right, might as well be aggressive. If it was more than 3way this might be another story. Thoughts folks? I'm interested.

Quote

06-10-2011 , 09:04 PM

#39

ibelieveyouoweme$80k

LLSNL FF Champ '13

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 12,868

Quote:

Originally Posted by PipChip

Given that you have the J

im calling here
Villian likely wouldnt play a flopped flush like this (unless its a super lower SC flush, but since most are onboard, I doubt he called a raise pre with like 3s2s).
I can see villian showing up As and a pair

Its kind of hard to assign him a range here but I think we're ahead alot here...

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

605,880 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 6

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JsJ	52.41%	315,342	4,389
ss, s9, s8, s6, TJ, 68, As, 7s*, 7T	47.59%	286,149	4,389

Does that look reasonable?
I dont actually think he'll have a 7T/57 for a flopped straight here very often, so I just entered the one combo

Villains play hands EXACTLY like this all the time. They are afraid that hero has As and if another spade comes, they are behind/dead. So they ship it to make hero pay the big price to draw out.

FWIW, I probably check this flop ... The Js is hardly a big draw to the fourth nuts.

Quote

06-10-2011 , 09:05 PM

#40

2OutsNoProb

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 15,991

My opinion would have been the same regardless of the spoiler or not, which to begin with I only read after I posted. This is a pretty reasonable fold IMO. People are advocating call becuase it's live and the thought prevails on this site that your opponent is always automatically terrible and can never have a big hand.

Quote

06-10-2011 , 09:38 PM

#41

Zeth

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 6,763

I think the prevalent "lol snap call, he's obv on a flush draw" groupthink on this forum and the internet pokers forums mostly is because that's what most of us (being players with a tiny mathematical clue) do almost every time we have a flush draw. We all (to varying degrees) tend to project what makes sense to us onto unknown opponents.

But here the argument for calling mainly is built upon how shallow stacks are. (Even if many posters in this thread are too optimistic about Villain's range, we do still have pretty fair equity.)

Quote

06-10-2011 , 11:41 PM

#42

kowboykiller

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 893

Anyone have stats on lambda of at least one of two villains holding flopped flush here? Can't be more than 1/8 - and that would include a lot of unders we're still drawing against.

Yeah bad villains will c/r w/ flush here, but that's done just as easily (more often) imo w/ sets & worse. C/r ai w/ FD's a classic SupSys move.

Quote

06-11-2011 , 12:00 AM

#43

Pay4Myschool

Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 7,462

I think villain is auto shipping 2 pair here too and we are in great shape there, just saying...

Quote

06-11-2011 , 12:07 AM

#44

Pay4Myschool

Haz Chuck Norris 4 Dad

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 7,462

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeth

He actually isnt semi bluffing any draws IMO on this flop because i dont think a9 is in his range and its a monotone flop The only one is AJ and AQ ace of spades because his calling range is not lower than AJ offsuit there. So its 2pair, sets, straights, flushes (not so likely IMO by insta shipping) and AQ and AJ offsuit with the ace. This makes it very very close

Quote

06-11-2011 , 12:57 AM

#45

kowboykiller

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 893

Quote:

Originally Posted by kowboykiller

Anyone have stats on lambda of at least one of two villains holding flopped flush here? Can't be more than 1/8 - and that would include a lot of unders we're still drawing against.

Yeah bad villains will c/r w/ flush here, but that's done just as easily (more often imo) w/ sets & worse. C/r ai w/ FD's a classic SupSys move.

imo*

Quote

06-11-2011 , 12:58 AM

#46

spencej6

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1

Testing

Quote

Page 2 of 2

First

1 2

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 2 of 2

First

1 2

Last