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JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2

12-05-2011 , 03:46 AM
I'm button, villain raises to $8, 2 callers (including myself).
I have JJ

Flop comes J, 8, 5.
Checks to me. I bet $16.
Villain calls, other player folds.
Turn comes 3.
Villain looks at his cards, checks.
I put villain on KK/AA. I bet $30.
Villain calls.
River comes 6.
Villain bets $90.

Board then is: J 8 5 3 6

A call would put me all in. I eventually fold thinking he has at least one spade. After the hand he said he "bluffed cause he only had a set."

Just curious if I made the right call? I KNOW he didn't have two suited cards (which supports my assumption of AA/KK) but the fourth spade jacked me all up.

Also, and more importantly, should I have shoved earlier?
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote
12-05-2011 , 04:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amaranthine
I'm button, villain raises to $8, 2 callers (including myself).
I have JJ

Flop comes J, 8, 5.
Checks to me. I bet $16.
Villain calls, other player folds.
Turn comes 3.
Villain looks at his cards, checks.
I put villain on KK/AA. I bet $30.
Villain calls.
River comes 6.
Villain bets $90.

Board then is: J 8 5 3 6

A call would put me all in. I eventually fold thinking he has at least one spade. After the hand he said he "bluffed cause he only had a set."

Just curious if I made the right call? I KNOW he didn't have two suited cards (which supports my assumption of AA/KK) but the fourth spade jacked me all up.

Also, and more importantly, should I have shoved earlier?
Welcome to 2+2. We need a little more info before we can comment on the hand.

First, what are the stack sizes? It looks like maybe you or your opponent started with around $100-$150 based on $90 putting you all in.

This is very important because if you're short, you need to plan the hand to get the money in.

Second, do you have any information on the villain? Age, sex, etc? Are they aggressive? Passive? Have you seen them bluff before?
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote
12-05-2011 , 05:01 AM
I don't think he really had a set there, his line just doesn't check out, for him to have a set on the flop then he must have raised with 88 or 55 before the flop, and decided not to c-bet nor c/r with his set on the flop...

and look at his line, he raised pre-flop, then c/c the flop on a wet board..the only hand that fits his line is proly a horribly played AsKs or AKo with As..

as long as the villain was an old nit and as played..good fold
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote
12-05-2011 , 05:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestNoob
I don't think he really had a set there, his line just doesn't check out, for him to have a set on the flop then he must have raised with 88 or 55 before the flop, and decided not to c-bet nor c/r with his set on the flop...

and look at his line, he raised pre-flop, then c/c the flop on a wet board..the only hand that fits his line is proly a horribly played AsKs or AKo with As..

as long as the villain was an old nit and as played..good fold
River decision isn't the most important thing here. We need to set up our bet sizing on the previous 2 streets correctly.

If we're short, we should probably bet a little more on the flop and more on the turn because if he has a spade he's calling, and if he doesn't have a spade here he's probably just folding.
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote
12-05-2011 , 05:06 AM
Let's assume $150 effective stacks and that villain is an unknown.

Hero has JJ on the button facing a $8 preflop raise. That seems a bit small for a typical game but perhaps not here (this type of table specific information helps get better responses). There is merit to making a reraise here, though if you do its going to be hard not to be pot committed. Flatting in possition also has merit. I think Hero could take either route and play the hand effectively. The looser the villain, the more inclined I would be to three bet.

Hero flops top set on a semi-wet two-tone board. Villain checks. This is a good clue villain doesn't have an overpair or top pair and its almost certainly confirmed when villain flats Hero's flop bet. Not knowing villain's nature its hard to say if he would take a weak-passive line with the nut flush draw plus one or two overcards. Vs an unknown, I discount Ax of spades a little due to his passive line but I'm mindful that some folks like to play passive and trap with the nut draws even if I wouldn't do it myself.

Hero has $142 left (or less) at the flop facing a $24 pot. That is a bit troublesome, too much for an easy two step betting sequence. I think Hero might be better served with a pot-sized $25 flop bet rather than a $16 bet. Perhaps Villain will check raise and make the hand easy for Hero.

The turn is an unhappy third spade. $56 in the pot. Villain checks and Hero bets $30. Its a useful clue when villain looks back at his hand, though not certain. Villain again takes the passive line and just calls.

The river is a cursed fourth spade. Now Hero only has a bluff catcher and suddenly Villain wakes up and pushes. There is $116 in the pot plus the $90 river bet from villain, Hero needs to risk $90 to win $206. Villain needs to be caught bluffing (with no spade rather than a weak one) 30% of the time for Hero to break even on the final call. Given how the hand played out, Hero needs to fold. Villain had four earlier chances to bluff and declined. I don't expect to see a bluff at the river.

I'd range villain as Ax of spades A + offsuit broadway, any two broadway with one spade, maybe an underpair with a spade. I can't put villain on any hand that flopped top pair + based on his passive line for the flop and turn. Its worth noting that villain can be bluffing with the best hand here - Say villain has T T for example.

If Hero is betting the turn, it needs to be more than 1/2 pot sized.

DrStrange
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote
12-05-2011 , 05:54 AM
Can't seem him having a set here. Would be a pretty insane line.
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote
12-05-2011 , 07:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrStrange
If Hero is betting the turn, it needs to be more than 1/2 pot sized.
DrStrange
I agree. OTT villain has a few possibilities:

1) Villain has some weak crap/total airball. If you bet 30 or 45, he folds

2) Villain has 1 big spade/pair + big spade -Standard 1/2 crap villains are probably calling whatever you bet here 1 more time

3) Villain just hit a flush - you get stacked basically.

4) Villain has overpair/AJ with no spades - Difficult to say what kind of bet he calls.

I don't think overpairs check the flop, so IMO basically anything that's calling 30 is calling 3/4 pot or more on the turn.

Lets play out the hand betting $25 on the flop

Turn: Pot = 74
OTT hero bets 50, villain calls

River: Pot = 174
V shoves for 70, hero gets 3.5-1 on a call. Hero probably sigh/calls.

You could also bet even more OTT if you want.

Notice also that even if villain checks the river or c/f a blank, you win much more playing this way than if you bet smaller.
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote
12-05-2011 , 11:22 PM
Thanks for the welcome PokerIsFrustrating.

So, basically, I should have made a large bet on the turn? Probably a slightly larger bet post-flop as well? I see the reasoning here. The part that most throws me off was his "I had set." I do not think he had a set...in fact I did not even consider this in any way plausible. My assumption after the fact was that he had nothing, or a weak spade when he says that line. I did not consider Ax with a spade although that logically makes more sense than QQ+ with a spade.

Villain was a black male, late 30s/early 40s. He had about $200 at the table.
I had a little over $100. No more than $125. I had only one a small pot post-flop in the time at the table.

I was at this table maybe only 20 mins? Saw him fully play one hand and maybe limped in on 2 others? The hand he played, he won at showdown - believe it was top two pair (like AQ/AJ). His body language at the table was the oddest part as he kept acting like he was falling asleep, closing his eyes, bobbing his head and whatnot. He stayed at the table for about an hour and a half I was there and then he left. The rest of the time he played very TAG. He won a few more hands, only one going to showdown, where he lost [his straight(made on the river) vs a flush(made on the turn)]. I did not have anymore hands with villain. He left with about the same he had when I arrived.

I think that's just about all the information I recall.
I appreciate the assistance. Thank you all.
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote
12-06-2011 , 05:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amaranthine
I see the reasoning here. The part that most throws me off was his "I had set." I do not think he had a set...
Take mental notes, but for the most part ignore what they say if they don't show. I, for one, always tell villains the opposite of what I had. Most 1/2 players don't pay sets this way.

Quote:

Villain was a black male, late 30s/early 40s. He had about $200 at the table.
I had a little over $100. No more than $125. I had only one a small pot post-flop in the time at the table.
This is really the key info. The villain's tendencies don't matter so much because you have top set with like 50-60bb. You want to get the money in and hope it holds up.

For this reason I'd bet a little more on the flop. There's lots of draws he could have, and if he has a hand like AK he's not calling anyway. I probably bet around $20.

On the turn, with a 3 flush out there and so little money left you should bet bigger than 1/2 pot. If he has a 1 card FD and he's bad he'll probably call you. If he has a set or some other good hand, a spade kills your action.

I bet around $45-50 into $65 (given how I played the flop). River you have around $50 left and the pot is around 150. I probably call and feel stupid when he shows some crap spade.

Just how I'd play it. Even if you're betting $16 on the flop, you need to bet more on a 3 flush turn. Sure he could have a flush, but you're only $100 deep so you're probably going broke with top set.
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote
12-06-2011 , 06:24 AM
Appreciate the advice.
JJ set v 4-card Flush River - 1/2 Quote

      
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