Similar hand to one I posted earlier, but I think I played this one a bit worse.

1/2 club game. Villain is a reg, ABC/TAG player. Probably a slight winner. Capable of bluffs but rarely big bluffs. Probably views H as tricky and capable of bluffing, but maybe a little too sticky.

H has $640, V is around the same, so call effective stacks $600.,

H is dealt JJ UTG. Raises to 20 (a little big but would definitely get action at this table). Folds to V in the SB who 3-bets to $55. Hero calls.

Don't love getting 3-bet here. V is 3-betting AK and QQ+. Maybe has some AQ, KQ, JJ (which I block) or possibly TT.

Flop ($110) is T85r. V bets $70. Hero?

I think based on my range above I should call, since I'd expect him to c-bet his misses a lot. However, I'm going to get taken to value town whenever he has an overpair. So my plan is call flop, fold to a turn barrel unimproved, check behind turn if checked to, and (again if unimproved) call a reasonable river bet if turn gets checked through.

Thoughts on this? I've been struggling with JJ lately as my posts make clear.

If you weren't this deep I would fold to the 3 bet preflop, but when I call its to set mine only. You raised 10BBs from UTG and still got 3 bet from OOP from a TAG/ABC player. He has QQ+ almost always.

Now I fold and dont tell anyone what I had

If you werent so deep I would just say fold to 3bet. But since you can almost setmine this deep its ok.

Im not opposed to just folding flop and just saving $70 here. If your plan is to fold to a turn barrel I suspect its better to just fold flop.

I def prefer to quietly fold to the 3bet.. but I guess it's marginal. Having position definitely helps.

As played, and with that flop - I think you either decide to give up now that you missed the set - or have a plan(s). I think the plan you put forward (one and done) is okay if you've seen him give up after a single cbet. But I'd prefer a two phase plan. Plan A - we call cbet, and check behind turn if we can (then call river). Plan B, if he barrels turn, we turn the hand into a bluff and RAI (on non-AKQJ). I think (based on your own ranging) that he's essentially capped at OP. If you raise on the turn - your hand is screaming 88 or TT... I think a solid ABC/TAG player folds his OP here 80%+. (well I'm assuming he doesn't give you too much credit for bluffing here - so you'd understand your own image best)

Pre is fine, but I can see folding to the 3bet from this player in the SB. Set-mining was OK, though. As played, just fold flop.

If your image isn't strong, many TAG Villains are going to be way unbalanced toward firing on the turn. So calling and then folding on a blank turn is no good. If Villain doesn't respect your flop call, then you either gotta take this hand to the mat or fold the flop.

Never folding IP pre this deep vs this range. We've got 37% equity vs. JJ+/AK and we only need 31% to continue.

If the villain never c-bets AK in this spot, we can lay it down. In fact, it's closer than I originally thought. Vs. the same range on this flop, we are 22% and we need 28% given the flop pot odds. Admittedly I'd take one off here in game, but on paper it's a close fold (assuming we're never getting him to fold an overpair post).

Edit: whoops, did not enter data into pokercruncher accurately. Against a range of JJ+/AK we are 41% on this flop. We need 28% equity, so we should call.

I'm calling the flop. Your hand is too strong to give up. I expect villain cbets nearly 100% of the time. If he only 3! with AK, you should still call because villain has 16 AK and 18 QQ+ combos. Add some AQ/KQ hands and you should clearly call.

I expect the size of his next bet to tell you how much he likes his hand.

If this is correct then we should call. Whether or not this is correct (that he really cbets 100% of missed AK) is really the crux of the hand.

I would expect Villain usually to c-bet. I guess every so often he checks a missed AK, but think that's exception rather than the rule. He's pretty ABC and c-betting this board in a 3-bet pot is almost mandatory.

Given the sheer number of hours I've played with V, I don't think I can get him to fold an overpair here. I'm not crazy but he's definitely seen me make big bluffs before, and he's called me reasonably light trying to bluff-catch at times (both correctly and incorrectly).

Pre is call, imo.

If he really cbets 100% then we should call with our whole range and JJ is certainly at the top of it our only calling range here. See what he does on turn. If he fires again, depending ion sizing, its a fold.

Since this thread has run its course, results:

I called flop bet. Turn was a 7 (forget if it put a flush draw out there), giving me a gut shot to go with my JJ. Turn went check/check.

River was a 3 no flush. V bet $100, I called and was shown KK.

Not crazy about the way I played this hand. Probably should have just been set-mining when I call V's three bet and in part I think I was a little over-optimistic about how loose he would three-bet. If he doesn't have TT or AQ in his range I'm really set-mining or hoping he's bluffing w/ AK.