Dont know what you guys are talking about I wasn't leveling. Can't respond to hands on twitter there just isn't enough room.

I'd always bet here. This is exactly what bumps up your winrate. And because the villain sees no one else in the player pool at this level bet thin, subconsciously he thinks that you are bluffing or have a monster.

Bart

Unless you know guy is a good player and capable of check raising the river without the goods, there is absolutely no reason not to bet this river.

Weak q seems highly unlikely and yes there are only select hands you're getting value from, but people will look you up so light in this spot, but basically no hands are beating you that would just call.

It's a perfect small value on the river spot.

i love your podcasts bart but i humbly must disagree with you here.

this is 1/2 with many people who are not looking past their own hand and the board. hell, some of them cant even figure out what they have, i cant tell you how many times i see people table the winner and say nice hand to the other person not realizing they won the pot.

unless i know that a person is thinking on a level that shows they have somewhat of a clue and is thinking past their own hand then i dont see what hands we are really getting value from. most people at this level think well even if he bluffed the turn with a draw it now got there. you arent getting looked up often by 88 here, esp vs a tight player at the table. but he is always calling/raising with a better hand.

this is why i think a hand like AA or a set is a mandatory bet because hes never folding a Q (this actual scenario is a bit different given the action because its unlikely he has a Q, but im just talking about the board in general), im not betting AA here to get a call from TT because its hardly ever happening in these games, esp with a tight uncomfortable player. i seriously would expect villain to show up with a flush if he puts anymore money in. now on the other hand i dont think he shows up with a Q all that often (< 10%) so its pretty much his range boils down to flushes.

i guess we just disagree on how loose someone who is playing very few hands will call this river, but i totally disagree that some random nitty player is thinking subconsciously that if you bet the river its a nuts or nothing spot and will look you up light.

Such a small chance he ever has Qx here.
Unless we've seen him c/r river before I wouldn't give him credit to c/r bluff.
I'm betting this river almost every time.

@ the people saying he never calls here with worse than a queen.... that's pretty silly.
I feel like you forget about the random wtf factor.
Just because they aren't putting you on a range doesn't mean they won't call(not necessarily they are thinking "nuts or nothing". also you can get a spite call from all kinds of random ****), the main reason being: People hate to get bluffed.
When you toss out $15 in this pot you get looked up ULTRA light.

+128498259

this is a thin vbet imo. Sure I will value own myself on occasion, but only like 10% of the time im guessing based on the way this hand played out. All kinds of crap calls down here its not even close!! if you check the river expect to only get paid off on coolers imo; the decent regs will eat you

This is a leak; have u read the hand history correctly? He has a Q like never, villain is not checking a Q twice if he's a aggro competent player so it comes down to flushes and weak made hands, and he's donking flushes often. bet bet bet

Having less showdowns in spots like this and getting paid a good % of the time when we bet here prints money. Really though, villains dont like being bluffed and no showdown always makes people wonder what you had. Guarentee you we have the best hand here like 75%+ of the time, and if villain can handread he realizes players have the nuts or a bluff here given ur line "typically", therefore caling you down a bit lighter. JJ is the nuts in this hand. Results OP, just to prove my point?

What hands do we get value from?

I agree with b/f river and turning jj into a bluff. But thin value? I have to disagree.

Fold or re-raise pre...first mistake

7x, 88-TT; he's c/calling the turn there with Flush draws and weak made hands. Less FD though

Uhh I did read the OP. did u read what you bolded? I said he almost never has a Q. And it nowhere in the OP says he is an aggro competent player. It says he playing right and has 50bbs

My bad, pretty pathetic that i bolded something i didnt comprehend correctly, lol.

But ya, is c/calling range OTT I think is like fd and ppairs we beat like 88-TT. No way he folds that range to a river double. His range UTG that checks 2 streets is like Axclubs, A7ss, 88-TT.

With a straight/flush on board? I'm trying to agree with everyone. But this seems to be a little too thin.

One part of my mind says "this is thin value you idiot" the other side is saying "you guys are crazy no value here".

I'm so confused, lol.

fold JJ pre to a single open by a ss?

Why are we flatting? What are you planning to do on flop? Well he made a mistake by checking flop? So clearly wasn't planning at all

The plan is to flop a set or play poker IP.
A lot of live players will c-bet flop gladly but rarely ever double barrel. Even if guy bets this flop I'm calling flop and probably folding to another bet. (Def not thin vbetting on river if he bets this flop).

I think the main thing is, that hardly any llsnl player is going to be checking so many times on this board with a strong hand. Just because they aren't betting doesn't mean they won't call with worse. Again like I said, they HATE to get bluffed. 3 red chips to them is nothing.
Whereas 3 red chips from a thin value bet OTR, if we can do it even once every other hour has a great effect on our winrate

Pretty much what lolpony said at the end here was my thinking... Better yet 4 red chips

How in the world can folding > calling? We might have the best hand. We're in position. Our MP call could easily create a very multiway pot and then we're setmining for 15x plus immediate odds. Plus an aggro shortstack might shove behind, get EP raiser to fold, and then we're printing money with a call.

I agree with the b/f. But calling it thin value is stretching a little if you ask me.

Bart didn't actually say it was thin value. He said he would bet which is the right play since we bet the flush draw ott. So we have to follow threw otr. But I believe its a b/f and not thin value.

I still don't get how we can bet/fold the river. We're up against an aggro internet kid who can easily be attempting to rep the flush. If we bet weak, say $15, we're just asking to be check/raised; what, we're going to fold to a $45 raise getting 4:1? And if we lead big, aren't we pot committing ourself?

well for starters if we do bet the river, hes never raising us with worse, EVER.

just based on teh description, the kid seems uncomfortable, sitting on 50BB, most likely playing scared money. if we get c/r we are NEVER good here.

but this just comes down to, should we even bet? people seem to think some kid playing nitty is going to look you up with 88 on a 3 flush 3 straight board, and imo its not happening.

against a spewy POW then obv we can b/f. it would be a heinous crime not to. against some nit 50BB donk, there is pretty much 0 value in betting the river.

op never said the kid was nitty. Said he was playing less hands than the rest of the table (lol doesn't mean much at 1/2) then said he wasn't playing super tight.

Thin value is usually b/f in most cases by its very nature (there are exceptions)

PB, I don't understand you here. You tweet Bart for an answer and when he gives one that doesn't confirm your own view, you say you think he is leveling.

See bold above. You are either not paying close attention or you're living outside of reality.

For those who are having trouble with the concept of thin value on wet boards, I know where you're coming from (I think). When I first heard Bart describe thin value betting on scary boards, it took a couple times hearing him describe why it's a profitable play before I understood it. It seems counterintuitive at first: why do I want to bet a scary board with pretty marginal holding? The reasoning is that it polarizes your range. When most people bet in this spot, they generally have close to the nuts or total air. So thin VBets on wet rivers get looked up light by players who don't see something like just a pair bet in that spot ever.

Honestly, I'm not going to be able to explain it as well as Bart. If you want to hear him talk about it, check out the Deuce Plays podcast. There are several episodes where it comes up, but take a look at (these are free on itunes):

Episode 127: Live No Limit Leaks Part 1 &
Episode 128: Live No Limit Leaks Part 2

He talks about this topic a lot on those episodes.

In game, I was a bit torn because my instinct was to check back this river, and then Bart's advice popped into my head. Pretty cool to have him chime in here. Thanks for having a hand in that, PokahBlows.

Regardless, this is a marginal position so we should expect to see a lot of debate here. I am just not afraid of being check/raised here as a bluff very often live. Yes, online I'd check here but he is probably scared money so I'm not too nervous.

I've been playing Holdem for over 20 years, and I'm sure THE major leak in my game is I don't value bet rivers often enough.
Ignore the Queen on board. No way Villian checked a Queen in his hand twice. Believe it or not, your Jacks is an overpair the way the hand played out. By checking the flop, you've under-repped your hand, and I think you get looked up light. I've seen strong players make this type of river bet for years; and I've seen break-even players check this hand down (me!). The only caveat here is the BD flush, but there's usually going to some part of a board that is scary. Bet $15-20 otr. Even if he folds, you win, as you've left doubt in his mind.

@Fold4once thanks for clarifying my post. Bart did say this was thin value. This hh is ultra thin though. So it confused the hell out of me.

I admit I was wrong, bart actually came on here and explained it. In enough detail that I can understand. Even though it took awhile.

When he posted after my must be a level post. Basically saying that he was serious. Really made me think "oops got my hand stuck in the cookie jar" because his post went against my whole thinking of checking back/no thin value here.

After a nights rest, I can see a mid pocket pair or Ace high calling. The flush comes backdoor, most donks won't believe you have a flush.

Good thread on "ultra thin value",lol.