I agree 100% that action on subsequent streets supercedes any preconceived notions about a villain's range or tendencies. I was saying that if he has the A it's going to be A8 specifically given how the hand was played on every street. Before anyone says well that's only one combo, way more likely he has AA or AK or whatever, just look at preflop and the turn action and the sizing on the river and tell me he's more likely to have the naked A than A8. No way he has AK because that would leave zero value hands he could hope to be paid by otr. and hoping to induce a bluff from a relatively unknown thinking player here would be nuts, although it seems to have worked. All this is contingent on hero's read that this guy is good or at least competent/not insane.

pretty much how i feel about this hand. I don't see villain having the 8c here + you can have the 8c

Super sicko. I'm having a difficult time giving hero credit for hands with 8c that he is 3betting with pre. I don't think this works often enough as you need it to work ~55%. Anyways....results please

why??

most competent players' 3betting ranges widen considerably as stack depth increases. this is clearly not a game where people are playing super ABC where 3bet = {AQ+, TT+}.

I think it is much more important to think about what villain has in this spot... and it seems really difficult for villain to have 8c in his hand - given that he called a 3bet OOP and led flop and turn.

I don't think you can make this bluff without history, unless he knows you by reputation.

As hand played out, it's obv way more likey for hero to have 8c than the villain however once the river comes out, villain should recognize this fact and know when we shove it's def possible we turn a lot of our made hands into a bluff which is why I think we get sigh called a lot w the ace of club. It's also important how the villain views our 3betting range- although it may be true that we 3bet iso button w variety of 8clubx gapper hands if the villain does not see this then obv we get called more often than not. Also, from previous posts, hero typically plays a fairly TAG game so if villain has played w hero in the past he might give us less credit for having the 8c. In addition, I like this bluff more if the villain is scared money, shot taking, sitting deep just to cover the fish- player. If he's a regular high stakes winner I would be hesitant to pull this off.

Regardless I don't think it's that bad -ev play. In fact it's great that you recognized this opportunity and pulled it off. A lot of players in this spot would only think of their options as hero calling or raising so take that for what it's worth.

Strongly disagree with this. Keeping the fish in the pot is better than playing a bloated pot super deep oop vs another good player where our range is narrow and he can rep the deck.

*hero calling or FOLDING

Well I couldn't disagree more.

fyp

Crazy hand. I'd iso smaller. I'd also want to know villain can't have the sf based on pre and that he is capable of folding the nf. Without that info, it's an extremely high variance play and could actually be a turning point one way or the other in your poker career (bluffing off 24k in one hand in a 10 20 game, or successfully making the bluff of your life and crushing everyone in the building's soul).

Props for having the heart to pull the trigger, but I prob wouldn't do it unless I knew villain very well and/or I was super-rolled.

You also have to watch out that Villain might have 3 4!

U gonna get tank called!!!!

imo awful.

a) sknight is dead wrong. Value of 4betting pre is marginal compared to playing big pot /w a fish who wouldn't fold a piece of the board.

b) it looks like villain has some solid Ac, and once he realises he doesn't have 8c in his range he probably gonna shrug-call.

also
??? wrong, wrong, whatever

More like you could represent it as well as the 8c.

I hate to turn a thread into a tangent that op didn't want to discuss so I'll keep it brief. The main reasons people itt would flat premiums (and I guess have no 4bet range?) is for pot control, deception (rep the deck, cooler, etc.) and most importantly to keep the fish in.
The sentiment seems to be that this fish would fold like everything except KK or something to a cold 4bet. Given his description I highly doubt that. He will fold some hands that we have crushed though for sure.
As far as not bloating the pot, I think it's fine for balance hu against good players, but ultimately putting a lot of money in pre with premiums is good if you're going to get action. I imagine hero would want to give action to a 4bet here. There is a great thread in archives where someone has KK in the sb super deep against Phil Laak. Good discussion.
Deception is fine too, but not at the expense of drastically lowering your ev and actual chance of folding the best hand at some point. Being massively underrepped against good or fishey players makes it very hard to play correctly in tough spots for obvious reasons. Except for coolers like set over set, all the big pots from premiums are going to happen cause a big % of money got in pre. It's freaken impossible to cooler someone anyways.
Anyway, if everyone thinks I'm dumb in this spot, so be it. Maybe there are other reasons I'm missing...

This is very very very sick. That being said, I doubt one day a guy wakes up and decides he's gonna bluff like this i.e are you sure your image in a spot like this is squeaky clean? Most guys who bluff in super sick spots like this have bluffed in super sick spots before. Granted the rarity might mean your image is fine to pull off this bluff. Realistically I think sigh calling the Ac vs most is going to be lighting money on fire, and anyone disagreeing with that is probably a function of knowing OP has JTcc. That being said with alot of money in the pot and the emotional strain of only losing to 2/3 combos, the fact that he likely flatted a very strong hand pre and got a great board combined with the fact he really can't have the 8c makes me wonder how much the sighcall comes into fruition. Fwiw I think making calculations in this spot is a pretty useless thing to do

I doubt he folds the Ac .

The fact that OP posted a thread where he sticks 24k in with a hero bluff in a 10/20 game makes me think it's probably a pretty terrible idea to 4 bet him OOP here with a really strong hand when he will perceive our range as exactly what it is. Your line of thinking is generally correct, but when you are super deep vs sicko opponents you can throw it out the window. If you make it 1600 with AA here and he flats there is gonna be 3400ish in the middle with 22.4k effective stacks behind. You are just going to get destroyed by a really good player in this spot. Also, i am absolutely not suggesting not having a 4bet range here. Given that he is constantly isoing the fish, I think it's pretty mandatory to 4bet him some % but I would much rather do it with T9s type hands until i get caught. Also, I think you are seriously underestimating how important it is to keep the fish in when we have really good hands in this spot. He sounds pretty special, and you are going to make most of your money in this game by playing pots with him, not by trying to play massive pots, super deep, OOP vs sickos.

yea i kinda feel the same.....think he sigh/calls a bit too often to make this profitable.

[QUOTE=GOONERCAM;32721824]This is very very very sick. That being said, I doubt one day a guy wakes up and decides he's gonna bluff like this i.e are you sure your image in a spot like this is squeaky clean? Most guys who bluff in super sick spots like this have bluffed in super sick spots before. Granted the rarity might mean your image is fine to pull off this bluff. "

It's not just image - you'd better be able to keep a stone face and even breathing, or if that's not your thing do the same thing you'd do with the nuts (in other words not give off many "nervous" tells") if the opponent is a good reader (described as a solid pro) when making a move like this. Like most, I'm assuming the villain most likely has an A of trumps hand. It is a very ballsy play - hope it worked out.

Ok, I guess we'll have to just disagree because the bolded is the crux of the issue and I don't agree with it. It's not like every board is going to be terrible for you and great for his range, he's gonna go sicko/never slow down, make a hand more than probability allows, etc.

I mean, I just don't understand your logic. I have a decent amount of experience playing really deep, and while you certainly have to respect/adjust to the total sickos/studs, you can't adjust so much that you are playing ass backwards poker. And yes I've lost huge pots where it was a leveling battle so I know the sick feeling. I think the thing that affects people the most is the psychological fear of getting outplayed/losing a massive pot when they could have taken steps to ensure that those decisions never had to be made in the first place. Having a 4bet range only of suited connectors until you get caught so that he will know they're in there seems like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Is it going to be easier to play T9 oop than AA, even if he puts you on AA and not T9? I think you're going to make more mistakes/get coolered/spew more often with the former without having any of the showdown/bluff catching ability that AA has. If you want to have a 4bet range premiums seem like a good spot to start.
Nobody wants to be put in sick spots for huge $$$, but if you are sitting deep, with fish or with good players, they're gonna happen. This deep anything that isn't the nuts is going to be a bluff catcher against a really good player anyway, as this thread makes obvious. I do think that there is a big difference between 3betting and 4betting super deep and that it does sometimes make sense to pot control instead of 3betting but pretty much always smash it if you can 4bet.

Finally, what do you think the fish would do with all his PP, broadways, suited conn., and suited Aces if you made it 2500? Fold them?

It's not even that hero on the button can call super wide and "rep the deck" this deep to a 4bet w premiums (although this can be one of the reason). I don't care who you are i like my chances with AA in a 10-20 game 20k effective stacks in a 4bet pot OOP. When a fish opens the hijack and a capable player 3bets on the button- the hand should most likely be over once we 4bet (obv we would call with j10cc).

The reason why it's way +ev to flat w premium hands in sb is to KEEP THE FISH IN THE POT!- that cannot be understated esp in deepstack live poker game where the game is built around this one guy. Also it's important to note that preflop 3/4betting leveling has not been existent in this game which makes it highly unlikely for hero to spaz against villain. If hero and villain has a history than I agree that 4betting with premiums is preferred but it sounds like this is not the case.

When a game is revolved around 1 special special deep stacked fish and 8 other pros, there's generally an agreement among players to keep the preflop 3/4bets down. For example- its not that unusual (in fact I would say standard) to even flat w premiums when another player opens and fish is behind to act.

Also SKknight- in given info- we don't know what the fish would do if he has broadway cards, pairs etc. He might overcall the 4bet, he might fold, who knows. But again, I'd rather make sure that this player is in the pot. Also, OP said this player opens 100% when folded around to him- so chances are he has absolute garbage anyways.

Results:



On the 4-betting question, I think in general I would prefer to be flatting premiums in villain's spot rather than 4-betting, for a couple of reasons, a lot of which has been already discussed:

1) I think even the fish folds to 4bets with most of his opening range (even though he is calling 3-bets) and there is a ton of value to be obtained by keeping him in the pot. As villain you will win by playing against him, not against other regs.

2) Yes he will win the pot a lot just preflop, but when called you don't really like to be playing a big pot OOP with a pretty face up range when SPR is still decently high and there are a lot of boards (other than the really dry boards) where you can be facing a lot of trouble against my 4bet calling range in this spot.

3) The fish creates a protected pot. If it goes three way to the flop there is going to be very little bluffing between the regs because the fish is calling any piece. This solves some of his OOP problems because I'm never really going to give him a difficult situation as long as the fish is still in. There are some scenarios where I will be bluffing him and value betting vs the fish but those are still comparatively rare.

4) The most likely scenario when he flats a premium here is that he wins the pot postflop, and the most likely scenario if he 4bets is that he wins the pot preflop. In the first case there is more money in the pot since the fish will call preflop and is likely to put in more money postflop as well.

Does anyone else not like villains bet on the river given he had the only card he could get called by?

Is it just me (I'm a bit tweaked right now), or does this hand take the world record for the sickest, sweetest bluff ever made?

The Dwan/Eastgate/Greenstein bluff (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfP2GU74dFc) was the previous record holder, imo, but this cmoh bluff is way sicker and sweeter, imo. I assume you showed your hand, right? Was there anyone else at the table who can verify that this hand actually happened?