Warning: This is a very long & detailed post & many of you will feel that there is a lot of extra information that you feel was not necessary for you to make your decisions. So, if you feel this may be the case, feel free to skip over any part that you deem unnecessary. There are some really interesting concepts & points of view in this hand so I truly hope this stimulates your minds. Just please not that I am new to posting, but not new to poker so this may not look like a commonly seen post on this site.

The game was a 5/5 NL game & had many different types of players at the table with their own very unique styles, but realistically, there was only one other player that I would consider "good" that was playing at the time of the hand & this happened to be the Villain in this hand. The table was playing very loose & passive & had many limpers & certain hands went up (& others down) in value because some of the players were willing to stack off very light & were making loose calls all night long. So my goal was to see as many cheap flops as possible, because outplaying most of these people post-flop wasn't rocket science. The game was also playing pretty deep in the relation to the blinds, so it allowed more to room to call with some marginal hands due to the implied odds provided by the dynamics of the situation. My image was kinda Taggy, but I had changed gears several times in the session, so most of my opponents weren't really sure how to chategorize me. Some of the players already knew me & knew I was a good player & the ones who didn't know me were giving me respect, because of some of the hands I had played earlier on. I had also recently lost a $1.7k pot to one of the donks on the table in which I had a set of Jacks against aces & got all the money in on the turn & got sucked out on by a rivered ace (for a higher set).

The Villain was a pretty solid player who knew what he was doing & was purposely trying to stay away from me because he knew that there was a lot more value that he can get from the other players at the table. And because of this dynamic, (& the fact that I layed down & showed 2 hands earlier on that were big hands, but I knew I was behind & the Villain showed his better hands both times & was astonished at my lay downs & said both times that if I was anyone else, he would've doubled up). So because of these reasons, I knew that he was capable of laying down some pretty big hands to me in the future & this was a key factor in the decision in this hand.

Game: 5/5
Players: 8

CO: $1,200 (240 bb)
BTN: $1,100 (220 bb)
Hero (SB): $950 (190 bb)
BB: $450 (90 bb)
UTG: $750 (150 bb)
Villain (UTG+1): $1,100 (220 bb)
MP: $1,350 (270 bb)
MP+1: $300 (60 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J9

Action: UTG+1 (Villain) raises to $35, MP calls $35, BTN calls $35, Hero calls $35 w/ J9, BB calls $35

Flop: ($175) 78A (5 players)
SB (Hero) checks, BB checks, UTG+1 (Villain) bets $150, MP folds, BTN folds, SB (Hero) ?????????????????????????????

Analysis: So this is the spot that I was in... I had a gut shot straight draw & a Jack high flush draw. Villain was a competent player & I felt that he wouldn't Cbet this flop w/ out at least an Ace into 4 other players. His range (from what I perceived) was...

1. AT through AK (top pair w/ 48 possible combinations)
2. A7 or A8 (two pair w/ 18 possible combinations)
3. AA, 77 & 88 (set w/ 18 possible combinations)
4. 56 (up & down straight draw & 6 high flush draw w/ 1 possible combination)
5. 46 (gut shot straight draw & 6 high flush draw w/ 1 possible combination)
6. 6T (middle gut shot straight draw & T high flush draw w/ 1 possible combination)
7. 5x6x (low up & down straight draw w/ 15 possible combinations (56 removed))
8. 6x9x (middle up & down straight draw w/ 8 possible combinations)
9. 9xTx (high up & down straight draw w/ 12 possible combinations)
10. 78 (bottom 2 pair w/ 12 possible combinations)
11. K & T or Q of (King high flush draw w/ 2 possible combinations)
12. QT (Queen high flush draw w/ 1 possible combination)
13. 8 5, 6, T (Pair w/ flush draw w/ 3 possible combinations)
14. Air (**** load of combinations)

I know I over did this just a little, but I wanted to list all the possible hands Villain can possibly have in this spot & how many combinations there are of each of these hands. Realistically, Villain was playing a TAG style & we can exclude many of these hands due to the fact that he would NOT be raising them in UTG+1. In the 4 hours that we had played together, I haven't seen him make any raise that I would consider questionable due to his position. So, realistically Villain in this spot would have either...

1. AT through AK (48 combos)
- Equity: 44% - 48%
2. A7 & A8 (18 combos)
- Equity: 40% - 43%
3. 7x8x (9 combos)
- Equity: 43%
4. AA, 77 & 88 (18 combos)
- Equity: 34%
5. KQ & KT (2 combos)
- Equity: 26%

This totals 95 possible combinations of cards which allows us to easily deduce what percentage of the time Villain is going to have these combos.

So, (In my analysis of the situation) Villain is going to have...

1. AT through AK (roughly 48% of the time)
2. A7 & A8 (roughly 18% of the time)
3. 7x8x (roughly 9% of the time)
4. AA, 77 & 88 (roughly 18% of the time)
5. KQ & KT (roughly 2% of the time)
6. Other (remaining 5% of the time)

Once again, I apologize for the large amount of information, but I would like to know what you feel is the best action to make by Hero after Villain bets $150 into the $175 pot ($325) & why you feel this way? Here is my reasoning, so please let me know if you agree or disagree.

1. Fold (x): In my opinion, this hand is too strong to fold in this spot against this type of player. I would consider folding only if this player was a calling no matter what I do (other than fold) & he is going to call close to 100% of the time. Therefore since the equity for Villain's range of hands is better than our's, folding would be ideal against this type of player. Or I had some type of sick read that told me that he 100% has a set here & I know that there is no way hes going to fold it no matter what I do.

2. Call (x): In my opinion, calling is probably the worst of all of our options, because if we call, we are going to miss the turn at least 75% of the time. We are also out of position & anything other than a non Ten would not be a good looking card (even though a club would most likely put us ahead, we will almost definitely either lose all our value & Villain will fold or we will be drawing dead)

3. Raise (Yes): In my opinion, raising in this spot is the best possible option for several reasons... The biggest reason why raising would be best is because of the amount of Fold Equity it gives us. Villain respects Hero & has seen him make some really big lay downs, therefore it is very likely that he will give us credit for a very strong hand due to our line & if he does not have a set, he will almost always fold all of his AT through AK hands as well as more than likely his 2 pair hands. This line looks very strong & Villain is going to have to assume that he will have to put all of his chips in the pot by the end of the hand & in my opinion, hes not doing this with any less than a set & possibly the King high flush draw. Therefore Villain is folding at least 75% of the time & we take down the $325 in the pot (which totals approximately 25%-30% of our existing chip stack) & we still have an average of 30% equity if he does calls (& we get it in on the turn) or pushes all-in when hes holding a set or a King high flush draw. There is a total of 20 combinations of those hands (which he's calling or shoving with) as opposed to 75 combos of hands that he is almost always going to fold. So this is why I feel that raising is the best option.

4. Fold Pre-Flop (x): In my opinion, even though we are calling with J9 which is a hand thats often dominated by a good player's range when he is raising UTG+1 in a 8 player game, we still have some serious implied odds mostly because of the other players in the hand. These were below average players & like I stated ealrier, were very capable of stacking off with a dominated hand & because of the 2 callers after the raise & the BB who already had chips in hand to call, calling was a better option than folding.

5. Betting out on the flop rather than checking (x): In my opinion, donk betting into 4 opponents on this type of board can only be trouble. If we are raised, we lose a lot of our fold equity that check raising had given us. If we are called, the pot is going to be really large & we are likely going to have to get it all-in at some point with a hand who's equity is less than 50%. Since there is an Ace on the flop, it is very likely that one of the 4 opponents is holding at least one & will perceive the situation as though his Ace in position is a good enough hand to go with on this type of flop. And lastly, we are betting into 4 people (who have yet to act), rather than just the initial raiser. And as we stated earlier, the other players are calling stations & will call light, therefore we are taking away the advantage we have over the pre-flop raiser & have a big chance of getting called by one of the other players & we will have below 50% equity almost no matter what they have (even a small ace).


Thank you all for your time & once again, I apologize for the long read. I am really looking forward to see if you guys agree with my post & if you don't please explain why. Also, if any of you see anything wrong with any of my calculations or reasons on why I drew certain conclusions, please let me know. I've been playing poker for a long time, but I still make mistakes just like all of you. So if I indeed made a mistake (or multiple mistakes), please point them out.

I was also wondering how you guys would play... (In the same spot)

A. 9T (Up & down straight draw & Ten high flush draw)
B. 77 & 88 (Set)
C. A7, A8 & 78 (two pair)
D. 9xTx (Up & down straight draw)

Thank you all for your time

- NYtoCALI

I'm OK with calling pre but I don't think it is very profitable. Villain's range will be strong from UTG+1 and you've argued extensively that he's not going to pay us off often enough.

Donking the flop is bad. We want to get fold equity. There's more of it from a check/raise. We don't mind seeing the turn for free.

After UTG+1 cbets and there are two folds this is a super clear spot for a check/raise IMO. We are not too far behind Villain's calling range and have plenty of fold equity.

As for bet sizing - I would make it large enough that Villain has no perceived fold equity. I don't want him to re-bluff because our hand doesn't do very well even against bluffs.

Hero has about 915 behind so I'd make it somewhere in the neighborhood of $600. The only possible problem is that a too-big bet may make Villain suspect that we're bluffing and widen his calling range. That's not too bad here because we have very good equity against Villain's bluff catchers like Ax. But, if you are convinced that a smaller raise will get more folds, and not cause Villain to bluff, then that might be better.

Thanks for the reply. I guess we're pretty much on the same page. My pre-flop call wasnt necessarily meant to get value from the pre-flop raiser, but from the other 3 players in the hand which gave me the correct implied odds to call.

I wound up raising to $500 in this spot. I thought about making it $600, but decided on $500 due to what you said in your post about Villain widening his calling range. Either way, if he called, he knew that I was shoving pretty much any turn.

Thank you for your input.

- NYtoCALI

no offense but I didn't read the massive wall of text. I did see that you said he's a pretty solid reg, so as a std, fold pre vs the massive opening raise. As played raise/get-it-in, anything between $425 & all-in seems fine.

OP and villain are NOT at 100bb, they are at 200bb...

so we can't just do the standard c/r lets get it all in on the flop imo...

I know being passive and drawing is frowned upon, but this is a situation in which we can due to our depth chip wise. But we have to recognize that we are essentially drawing to ONE street and not TWO streets. If we don't hit our hand on the turn, V is going to price us out. So, with 13 outs we have roughly 26% equity with one card coming.

So we need to be getting 2.85:1 on our money for this call to be profitable and we are getting roughly 2.1:1 so the call is not profitable from a purely direct odds POV. HOWEVER, if we can make up the delta with implied odds (i.e. we hit on turn and can get at least $130 from V on turn and or river), then we can call here. And since we are deep enough, we can make the call.

So call, hope to spike a club or T (ten is ideal) and then fast play the hand. Don't go for a c/r, just bet out pot on turn and then 2/3 pot on river.

If you miss turn then just c/f.

I know, "draw" is a four letter word around here, but there are "some" situations in which simply drawing is the optimal line, and imo, I think this is one of them.

Lastly, preflop call is fine given the heavy multiway action

If he's not bet/folding AK here then it's better to c/c.

I hate to say this after all the information that you posted, but fold pf.

Your comments indicate that you don't understand the value of position, which is a fundamental component of playing NL. There's a world of difference between playing J9s on the button and the SB. In addition, you don't understand how position affects range. Unless the villain is a maniac, he's never ever raising 64s or anything like that from the UTG+1 position. To put that in your analysis is frankly ridiculous.

Whether a c/r is the right play depends on you using third level thinking vs. a second level player. If the villain thinks you're on the top of your game, he might realize that you'd have no problem c/r a set. Sets shouldn't be particularly worried about FD because they have a 7 card redraw on the turn and a 10 card redraw on the river if there is someone with a FD (which is rarer than you think). However, the vast majority of LLSNL players don't see it that way. They are going to bet out because they don't want the FD to hit against their winning hand on the flop. So they'll bet. If the villain believes you are in the minority (which give your leaks, is unlikely), then I like the c/r. Otherwise, this looks like a FD trying to take down the pot and he should jam over you. If he's a level 1 thinker, he's never folding TP or better, which is what he has under these circumstances.

I forgot to add in my post, I shouldn't have said the pf call was fine, but rather its marginal (and honestly, I probably call here with J9s given the multiway action ).

There are two components that go into me making a call like yours from the SB with a marginal hand like J9s.

#1, we need a lot of multiway action to give us odds, so yes, we got that.
#2, We need our villains to be passive post flop and/or make mistakes post flop like giving us great odds.

#2 is key especially when deep. If i'm at a table full of aggressive opponents that will bet pot, raise, or shove, then playing J9s from OOP is -EV.

In order for a call from the SB to be profitable with a hand like J9s, we need our villains to be capable of making mistakes post flop and giving us great odds. And that doesn't sound like the table you are at.

I agree with pretty much everything dgi stated above.
I didn't read the entire op, but I think your villain's raise from EP is going to be alot narrower than your analysis suggests

I disagree with the hero in the SB. Multi-way against a decent villain, he's not going to overvalue TP or an OP. OTB, I agree 100% with calling.

As played, the villain is obviously afraid of the FD based on the bet size. He wants the hand to end now. If a T hits, then I agree with potting the turn, although a good player is going to go "WTF" and start thinking his OP is no good. If the FD hits and hero pots, I think the villain dumps the hand. There's only two type of hands that calls the flop and pots the turn: Hands that beat a pair and hands that hit in LLSNL. You're just not getting bluffed enough in LLSNL to make it worthwhile to call with TP when 200 BB deep.

Of course, I'm giving the villain some credit because the OP says he's a decent player. If he doesn't deserve it, then your line makes sense.

agree w. fold pre

sb is the worst spot on the tbl. even tho you hit a monster flop you can see the problems that can develope playing the hand oop

Fold pre, calling is too marginal being in the worst position at the table with a drawing hand.

As for postflop, calling is your only play. A c/r is suicide, villain has showed with his bet sizing he is not folding. So with minimal fold equity raising is really, really bad.

Why do you think calling is the worst option?

Calling flop can be okay because a thinking regular might assume another thinking regular doesn't just call with naked draw. So, there's some implied value (probably just one street, which is all you need) if you hit the flush on the turn. This is one small advantage of having a combo in conjunction with the possibility of spiking a non 10.

The FE issue is an interesting one, when 200BB deep. I agree with your combo analysis, which, based on my rough interpretation, gives you around 40% equity (the only hands that crush you are the bigger draws and there's only 2 combos, a real bonus). So, given 40% real equity, you don't need much FE to make a c/r +EV.

Will Villain commit with TPTK 200BB deep? I'm not convinced that the bet-sizing indicates he always will, since he's bet only a little over 10% of his stack, which means he's only treading the commitment threshold, at this stage, rather than stepping over it.

At the very least, you need to plan turn before c/raising flop. While many assume that you'll need to auto-pilot donk turn if Villain chooses to flat your flop raise (rather than fold or shove), it's better to c/c, since you pretty much know that you have FE only against the 2 combos, so donking doesn't achieve a whole lot. I only say this because with a c/r, the turn play is the only variable that you need to anticipate, as you're never folding if he shoves flop.

.........
You obviously either didn't bother reading 90% of what I typed or you know absolutely nothing about poker. I understand that I typed a lot & I wont make that mistake in the future, but you do not in any way have the right to negatively comment on someone's post that you didn't even read.

Firstly, I fold J9 in SB in probably at least 90% of games that I play. Certain factors need to be in place for this SB call to be correct & thats already explained in another post by someone else. So please don't start saying that "OP obviously knows nothing about position". Because the implied odds were most definitely there. Secondly... you typed that Villain would never be raising in UTG+1 with a hand like 64... Well no sh*t... If you read directly underneath where I typed those hands, I wrote that Villain would not have those types of hands, I was simply showing the amount of combinations. Right underneath that, I specifically showed Villain's realistic range & the combinations. Lastly, you go on about Villain not being afraid to continue with a set... Once again... No f*cking Sh*t!! The point of the post is that Villain has 18 combos of sets & 2 combos of higher flushes that he can have. And that there are 75 other combinations of hands that he could REALISTICALLY have. And both me and the Villain are both 10/25 regs and along with the leveling war that I explained thats been going on in this session between us, he will most definitely fold anything other than those 20 combos of higher flushes and sets & Hero still has decent equity for the small persecntage of time Villain does have a set, therefore the Fold Equity Hero has makes his play +EV. You also say that Villain could fold an overpair on the turn if hes bet into... How can he have an overpair??? this was an Ace high board. What kind of overpairs to do u get dealt?

I see that you've made over 13k posts on here & I respect your input. But don't berate an OP's post before actually reading it. It seams that DrTJO is the only person who actually read what I wrote & his post actually makes sense. Read it if you'd like.

And just so your aware... OP is an accomplished poker player thats been doing this for a very long time & because he only made 26 posts, doesn't mean he's new to this game & dosn't understand position. I agree that playing hands like this out of SB is difficult. But if you are a good post-flop player & have the correct implied odds due to the table dynamics, everything done by OP is 100% correct. I've already spoken to many pros about this hand & they like the line I took & see it as a +EV play.

- NYtoCALI

.... Calling is horrible for many reasons....

1. You are out of position to the pre-flop raiser.
2. There realistically very few turn cards that will improve this hand.
3. Villain is a good aggressive player & knows that Hero wouldn't flat hands such as sets in this spot on these types of boards & will bet the turn a very high percentage of the time forcing Hero to fold.
4. Calling takes all the equity out of the hand because as you can see from my examples, this hand still has less than 50% equity against pretty much 100% of Villain's range therefore to make this hand profitable, extra equity needs to be created & in this case "Fold Equity".
5. Villain isn't a dumb player & will fold top pair hands & even 2 pair hands in this spot. Therefore we have the fold equity to check raise.
6. Calling is just horrible & if your going to play hands like this OOP in SB, then you will definitely be losing $ in the long run if you just call in this spot.

Read DrTJO's post for more reasons

- NYtoCALI

I disagree. I think what most posts in this forum lack are detailed reads on individual players, history etc, and your detailed analysis for why you did what you did.

Without all that information, people are just giving you the 'standard' line, but really we have WAY more information and we are trying to maximize our expectation past taking some standard line.

So I think you can safely ignore the advice of those that said they didn't read the whole OP.

Also, when you post detailed thought processes, we can follow along, and if there's a mistake, or debatable point or discussion item or some advanced brilliant logic you used, the discussion that ensues of these individual logic points can help you and/or the forum greatly.

So keep up with the detailed posts IMO, that's going to maximize your learning EV here, but you might have to ignore some snarky responses, which shouldn't affect your learning EV.

i get what u are saying OP but basically what it comes down to is you are trying to convince us that taking a pretty strong draw (OOP) into the absolute strongest part of villains range and playing for stacks is a good idea.

maybe its not super -ev but its def going to be high variance imo and a situation that can be easily avoided with a fold pre.

Lol, you bash venice he is the mod in this forum. Then you bash me for commenting on a horrible preflop call. The reason calling is the right option is because with his bet sizing you have the implied odds.

But since you're a 10/25 player and villain is too. What is your c/r range from the small blind? If its only sets and you're a nit then yeah a c/r would be optimal. Doesn't mean I would do it unless I had a bet sizing tell. When someone bets strong they level themselves to call which is my whole point of why I think you have less fold equity then you expect. But you was at the table not me.

Venice's post was not meant to insult it, and you shouldn't berate people who take their time to post well thought out posts in order to help you.

I basically was just going to type "fold pre" but saw that Venice, and others, already had and did it better because he gave a good analysis of why you should fold pre.


I also disagree with c/r the flop. Honestly after your last post I think you posted this more to coach rather than to ask for help.

... At the time of the post, I was looking for an answer. But after the first 10 responses started out by saying "I didn't actually read your post, but...", I decided to take it upon myself & reach out to players whom I respect. 5 out of 6 (aftter hearing all the details) agreed with me. So I was looknig for advice at the time I initially posted it. I appreciate his (& your advice), but Venice didn't even read my post & that made all 3 of his points make no sense... Calling J9 in almost all games is a losing play, I know, but on this table, it wasn't because of all the reasons I stated. And a check raise is definitely not -EV, because Villain is always folding 48 combos of possible hands, more than likely folding 27 combos & either calling or shoving with the other 20 combos. So with the fold equity we have, how is a c/r a -EV play?

- NYtoCALI

When exactly did I bash you in any way??? You asked me why I felt calling on the flop was bad... I gave you my reasons on why I felt that way. I didn't bash or berate you in any way. I simply answered your question with why I felt the way I did.

& yes, I have more in my range than sets in this spot. But sets are still my most likely holding due to the line I took here & since we are playing deep, Villain still has about 1k (200bb) after bis flop bet. I had stated earlier in the session that I showed Villain 2 lay downs I made when he had the better hand & that factor highly equates into my reasoning. Everything I did is 100% wrong in almost all spots, I agree to that. The pre-flop call & the c/r are both -EV plays. But poker is not absolute. There are times you do one thing & there are times that you do another. The reason for this post is to see if this was one of those times that you "take another line". Unless you actually read the initial post, then my actions make no sense & will most definitely lose me $ in the long run. So please understand that this was not a normal spot in a normal game. And before you make any more posts about how you think I played the hand, please actually read what I initially wrote. Thank you. & once again, I never bashed you for anything.

- NYtoCALI

it seems like u dont get it bro.. it doesnt matter how much splaining and analysis you have. you have to fold J9s from the SB vs a solid player opening a pot from early position.

i feel like this hand serves as good evidence as much as anything else.. you see that you have to make a big, risky c/r just to prevent getting shut out of the river.

So even with the dynamics of a situation where all these following factors are present its still a fold???

1. Villain knows that Hero is a good player & wouldn't be calling with hands like Jc9c in SB which makes Hero's hand very hidden.
2. Villain knows that Hero is very capable of making big laydowns due to the previous hands.
3. Villain knows that the other players at the table are bad players & are making many mistakes & that Hero wouldn't be making plays at the Villain since there are a lot of better spots for him.
4. Both players are playing very deep & the implied odds go up.
5. This is a 5-way pot & there could many scenarios that Hero would up against a player other than Villain on later streets.
6. Hero is a good post-flop player & dosn't have a problem throwing away hands when necessary.

Theres probably a couple more points i can make, but got to go. So my question is, even with all the points I made, do you still think that this is a fold pre-flop 100% of the time? IMO due to these dynamics, this is a call 25% of the time & a fold 75% of the time. If you have any, can you please give me some valid points on why you still feel this is a fold pre?

- NYtoCALI

the fact that what played out in this hand is pretty much the realistic "best case scenario" is all the evidence i need to advocate fold pre!

With meta game its not 100% its about 90% fold. So my question to you, does villain know you c/r sets otf or ott? Without that evidence I can't comment.

I did read your well thought out post. It was really long so I think I should get some credit for it.

As for looking for advice if you have all the answers don't post a hh on it.

Like I said if I make the marginal call pre I'm calling flop and deciding what I want to do ott. It depends on his aggression.