Interesting hand - do we get creative on river? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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Interesting hand - do we get creative on river?

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07-30-2012 , 06:56 PM

PayOffWizard1987

banned

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 428

1/2 NL - Horseshoe Hammond

Villain: ($200) Typical tight-passive old guy. This is a new table so I haven't really seen him play much. He is very tight and passive. It's been 45-1hour and he has yet to raise, only limp/folds and limp/calls. There was one hand where he limped UTG with AA, the whole table limped and he won with a bet on a dry flop and showed.

Preflop: Villain limps UTG, Hero raises to $12 with A

folds around to villain who min-3bets to $26, Hero tanks for ~1 minute and 4bets to $65, Villain calls...

Since he just called I am putting him on KK, QQ, JJ, maybe AK and possibly AA

Flop: ($130) K

Villain checks, I check.

Turn: K

Villain checks, I check.

Obviously I beat absolutely nothing, except I chop with AA

River: 3

Villain looks like he wants to check but reluctantly bets $20... Hero?

Ok, so obviously we are not folding, and it seems like a pretty standard call, but I think it is extremely likely that he has the other two aces. Should we raise and get him off of a chop?

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07-30-2012 , 07:32 PM

mtagliaf

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 5,649

He might have QQ or JJ and he's afraid of KQ/KJ. Old passives are never comfortable unless they have the immortal nuts, and they often aren't experienced enough to rule out KJ because you 4bet earlier in the hand.

But I don't think he's folding with those hands, either. So I'm not getting creative in this spot.

Your definition of "extremely likely" has to be that he has AA roughly 12 times more often than QQ and JJ (put together), for calling to be break-even (combos-wise, plus the fact that when we lose we lose 100%, and when we win we only win half).

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07-30-2012 , 07:32 PM

Mr Spyutastic

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,318

Personally I like a larger 4 bet. I just call the river.

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07-30-2012 , 07:46 PM

playertee

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 4,999

We beat nothing, he probably has quads, i'm not good enough to fold

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07-30-2012 , 08:34 PM

DevinLake

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Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 17,026

you want to raise to get him off one combo?

just call.

I don't get the tank preflop and I would 3bet bigger too. People don't limp/raise fold.

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07-30-2012 , 08:58 PM

NJBoss

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 95

It is just as likely, mathematically, that he has quads. And the action fits better - villain doesn't smooth call AA preflop, seems like a play a little more sophisticated than he is capable of. I call just because it is $20 and I am super curious. No way you are ever good here.

More interesting than folding out the AA chop...does a raise get him to fold JJ? I believe so...

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07-30-2012 , 09:04 PM

PayOffWizard1987

banned

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 428

I think it's a little more likely he has AA because when old guys do the limp/reraise utg it's like always AA. They are usually too scared to make this play with QQ, JJ, TT or AK.

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07-30-2012 , 09:05 PM

NJBoss

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Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 95

Quote:

Originally Posted by PayOffWizard1987

I think it's a little more likely he has AA because when old guys do the limp/reraise utg it's like always AA. They are usually too scared to make this play with QQ, JJ, TT or AK.

Explain how a villain with this level of sophistication doesn't jam over your 4 bet. IME, guys like this are instajamming over the 4 bet with AA.

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07-30-2012 , 09:14 PM

PayOffWizard1987

banned

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 428

Quote:

Originally Posted by NJBoss

Explain how a villain with this level of sophistication doesn't jam over your 4 bet. IME, guys like this are instajamming over the 4 bet with AA.

You're right, I don't think he would just flat call the 4bet with AA but I also don't think he would limp/reraise utg without AA... It's weird

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07-30-2012 , 09:18 PM

#10

NJBoss

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Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 95

I've seen guys like this do limp/rr with AK and JJ. "I didn't want to raise and get called by 5 players with this hand so I'll just limp...oh wait only two players...reraise!"

It's the ugly stepsister of "I'll open raise 20bb with JJ because I can't play it post flop".

Frankly, this should absolutely be a fold, but in practice there's no way I can fold for $20.

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07-30-2012 , 09:18 PM

#11

mtagliaf

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 5,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by NJBoss

More interesting than folding out the AA chop...does a raise get him to fold JJ? I believe so...

Zeebo's theorem - nobody can fold a full house. He disagrees with you.

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07-30-2012 , 09:20 PM

#12

NJBoss

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 95

Quote:

Originally Posted by mtagliaf

Zeebo's theorem - nobody can fold a full house. He disagrees with you.

May be right, and as I said, no way I raise here. That said, if there's ever an exception case to the boat rule, this is it, no? Tight/passive villain, huge p/f aggression, KKQJ on the board, tiny blocking bet on the river?

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07-30-2012 , 09:26 PM

#13

DevinLake

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Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 17,026

don't try to raise someone off a boat unless it's a large % of their roll. Not going to happen much at 1/2nl.

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07-30-2012 , 09:31 PM

#14

SABR42

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Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 23,188

lol he probably has quads

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