Agreed, AT doesn't benefit from seeing turns 4 handed, but it's not excited playing bloated pots so deep either. While AT wants to protect its equity, it wants to go to showdown without stacks getting in. I would actually prefer raising as a blufff here instead of AT, but you shouldn't have many bluffs 4 handed especially when you don't really have that many value hands.

I just wouldn't have a raising range here.

The fact that you wouldn't raise AT on this flop is exactly why Ive said a million times that you can profitably fold every time you get raised on the flop (assuming you dont have a monster or odds to draw).

People just almost never raise without 2 pair or better and your statement is more proof of that....but if we had an overpair and got raised people would say "call and evaluate turn" which is burning money.

Seemed like tilt to me

You don’t even have to go big - you could make it $150-160 after a $40 bet + two calls. You need to clean out some equity a little bit.

Questions I’d be asking myself (assuming PFR isn’t a nit):

1. Do I likely have the best hand? Yes.

2. Is nearly every turn a scare card versus my hand? Yes.

3. Do I have some equity to fall back on if need be? Yes.

4. Can I control the size of the pot and realize my equity with absolute position? Yes.

You’re never getting 3bet bluff raised. There’s really no downside to a small raise and it should make the hand way easier to navigate going forward.

You’re $1500 eff. You need a raising range if you ever feel like playing a big pot.

Given how these games have played, squeeze sounds good pre.

Why not just fold turn? Brad put $445 for a worse than 2:1 immediate odds shot not closing the action. Like is he really getting a $500+ bet out of his opponent if he hits? What if the 4c hits river and opponent jams? Draws just aren’t worth it in NL unless you’re investing very little of your stack.

This is a classic example to me of “if you’re not playing differently than your opponents, then how will you beat your opponents?”


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By that logic, someone could quote johnnybuz's post and say "that's why you need to call and revaluate flop raises". Problem is that neither me nor Johnny are representative of the player pool.

Fact of the matter is that people spazz out. People also raise flop a lot in order to find out where they are at or as a bluff because they don't believe you. In my current session, someone reraise my KK Cbet on a 245 board with JJ because I was very active in the previous hands. Not a great spot, but I just can't asssume he has a set.

Also, bad players tend to slowlay their big hands because they want to keep people in, so they tend to avoid raising their strong hands on the flop. Turn raises are always stronger, even by good players.

Even if pfr isn't a nit, and especially if he s somewhat competent, he should know that the board doesn't hit his range and that therefore he should be checking a lot. He should also know that cbetting against3 people is not a good idea if you don't have a good deal of equity. The fact that he does is an indication of either strength or gross incompetence. So, no, I don't think think you can assume you are likely good there.

As for having a raising range, maybe it's a leak. On these boards, I imagine, you want to play big pots in order to bluff people out of hands, because, I don't think that you will find many hands people will stack off with and if they do, it will most likely be cooler situations with set vs set. I do play big pots on more wet boards in which I have a wide range of hands I can bet.

PFR could be betting anything from Tx, 99, 88, 98s, QJs, J9s etc. Given many players don't raise small pairs in EP and we block top set, it's very unlikely he has a monster. His strongest hands combo wise are going to be overpairs KK-JJ. We have 56% vs. a fairly tight range of: 88+,ATs,KTs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s and if he's ever spazzing wider with big Broadways we are up to 66%.

Ok. It if you do your equity against his continuing range, it's something like 40%. That's the one that should matter, right, because that's the one in which you're opponent puts money into the pot, no? And you probably force a fold out of some Tx hands that could call a second bet. Last but not least, the speculative part of is range, like J9,89 can continue knowing they can hit big or put you to the test in more runouts. Your AT can either hit a five outer for trips or two pair or a backdoor draw. But those speculative hands have many blockers for potential straights, blockers hat can be used for playing more effective big pot poker than your AT can.

I know JB is a 2+2 legend but I have to agree with the earlier posts and think that all Tx are folding to your reraise on the flop with AT. JT, QT, T9 are all folding and maybe rec players will flat with 56s.

Obviously this play is relative and bet sizes are adjusted accordingly to player-dependent, but I think in a vacuum raising here with one pair in the hopes of taking it down is not a profitable mentality.

I've noticed Brad likes to get really stationey with draws and Ace high hands. Any time he has pure overcards or a gutter he says something like "no way am I folding here, I've gotta peel at least one". I think this hand was also rather poorly played but only postflop. In these insane texas games flatting OTB even with AQs isnt bad. It's a little weak but I think in that vid he was on a little tilt or something and maybe feeling squeamish and not in the mood to get it in for $1000 preflop or whatever.

I like the suggestions to jam the turn and stuff but **** man, it's texas poker, these guys are playing shortstacked 25/50 and callnig it a 1/2 game.

They both matter. You can’t just ignore the range of hands he folds that have 25-30% dynamic equity versus your hand and can make you fold the best hand on the turn (ie: QJs betting a K, J9s betting a Q), or hands that aren’t putting any more money into the pot unless they pull ahead (99/88).

Of course his continuing range is stronger but so what? You’re going to lose money to those hands anyway if you flat, or to one of the fish catching up.

Folding out his weak Tx isn’t a big deal. You’re not getting much more out of them whether you flat or raise. If you call he’s going to x/eval the turn. Maybe you get one more bet out of him but you have to fade the deck in a 4-way pot. AT just isn’t going to hold up often enough. I don’t think he auto-mucks all his Tx to smallish raises but that’s beside the point.

Regarding his speculative holdings - I don’t see how that’s a bad thing. You are extracting value and will play turns and rivers better then he will since you’re IP. Utilize hand reading when he starts betting - some would call that playing poker. I’m not really sure what you are trying to say at the end of your post but it sounds like you’re saying he’s going to outplay you from OOP which is quite difficult to do.

There are many possible permutations which affect the EV and you are only focusing on one where villain calls and we play HU.

I finally agree with JohnnyBuz. Im (mod edit: surprised)

Brad Owen has a decent amount of spazz in him+ some tilt issues as this vlog amongst others shows us.

Anyone who says they don't have some spazz, some tilt or some bad play occasionally is lying. These hands aren't live for us to see. He has to go thru the trouble of going back thru all of his footage, editing it, deciding what to show and what not to show and putting it together into a whole vlog. During that time Im guessing he realized that this wasnt his finest moment of poker..

He couldve just left this hand out of his vlog and its kind of refreshing to see a pro who is honest. We get to see a fairly accurate representation of how a real pros day goes. I give him props.

Absolutely. I really appreciate vloggers that shows us both the ups and the downs. My comment wasnt really made for the purpose of bashing down on Owen (i respect his game and think he is a really solid grinder for the most part), but i am somewhat surprised that a pro of his caliber is able to tilt/spew this hard over multiple hands. Several of these hands are just pure buttonclicking in my opinion.

I also agree that everyone have x amount of tilt/spazz in them, but if you consider yourself a good/very good player it should be minimal i my opinion.Actually i think mental leaks of this kind is most good pros/ low-mid stakes grinders biggest issues by far from what i have observed over the years. Ive seen countless very good skilled players that have pretty big tilt issues (especially when they are running bad/losing, everyone plays good when they are winning/sunrunning), even though it takes a trained eye to spot it.Playing alot more hands than normal+ forcing spots is the most common signs. Its a pretty huge mental leak if these kind of spazz/tilt hands happens at a regular frequenzy.

FWIW i take great pride in my mental game, and consider it maybe my biggest strength. I basically never tilt or spews off buyins. It just doesent happen. If i am reaching my breaking point like maybe 3-4 times a year, my worst tilt play is something like to call a 4 BB open in position with 6-9 suited or Q-8 suited from a 100 BB stack.

I couldnt agree more.

I think at a low frequency its okay to just call pre

however I am personally not a fan of multiway pots and AQ clubs is just way to strong

Question tho for everyone saying to raise the turn

this board and this line by the utg+2 is super strong

I don't believe we have any fold equity

jamming is like just hoping we bink a club

yeah I get it we have sets in our range problem is so does he and I cant see him spazzing 4 ways in a multi way pot

I could be wrong

explain

IMO I think its a fold on the turn

Its 100% a fold on the turn. We were discussing what to do if Hero had AT instead of AQ

oh sorry I missed that part and if our hand was A10 off should be a fold pre and suited im squeezing

a turn jam is terrible. UTG+2 just raised the PFR continuation bet into 2 people for a 2nd time. unless UTG+2 is a complete idiot, he has something and isn't going away to a jam. for that reason alone a call is better than a jam, because we can jam when we hit our flush and UTG+2 can't really fold and we can meekly fold when we miss.

with that being said, a fold OTT is better than either. we're not closing the action and we're way to susceptible to GII if UTG jams and UTG+2 calls.

pre and flop can go either way with either raises/calls. probably more profitable by raising though