This response is the nuts. Ya'll better fold.

You got me. To need a 1/3 bluffing frequency we’d need to be *calling* a half-pot bet, which means our opponent would have needed to bet an amount that was full pot at the time of his action. I fully admit I screw these percentages up all the time.

Ahh, that makes sense. Half of final pot, rather than half pot bet.

In case anyone has any doubts, here's the same math as the above, but with a PSB and slightly less explanation (since you've seen it before). Unsurprisingly, this also shows that above the cut off we should always be calling and below we should always be folding.

$100 pot. $100 bet. $100 to call. So we need 33.33% equity to call.

If he's bluffing at 35% frequency, we make $5 each time we call.

100 iterations
65% of the time we lose $100 = -6500
35% of the time we win $200 = 7000
Total, +$500.

Obviously, if we're ever folding here, we are costing ourselves $5 each time we fold.
100 iterations
50 folds = 0
32.5*-100=-3250
17.5*200=3500
Total= $250. By folding half the time we lost half of our profits.

Same concept works when the EV is negative. At a 30% bluffing frequency we are now costing ourselves $10 every time we call, so we should never be calling, not even 30% of the time

No calling frequency means 100 folds = 0

30% calling frequency means
70 times we fold=0
Of the 30 times we call:
21 of them we lose $100 = -2100
9 of them we win $200 = +1800
So by having the same calling frequency that he has bluffing frequency we lost ourselves $300.

Garick, i recognize you put some good work into those last posts- but i get kind of dizzy of all these numbers

Do you mind summarize up your point(s) so a noob from Vikingland could understand? Your main conclusion is that the LLSNL population is vastly underbluffing so we should mostly stick to just folding? Is that right?

My point is that if someone is under-bluffing, the correct adjustment is not to call them with bluff-catchers less often, but to never call them with bluff-catchers. Every time you call, you are losing EV.

Alternately if they are overbluffing (very, very rare at LLSNL), you should always call if you can beat their bluffing range, as every time you fold you are losing EV.

A lot of people think that you should adjust by calling more or less, but that's not correct. All else being equal (which, admittedly, it never is) the correct exploit to either under-bluffers or over-bluffers is for you to exploit their imbalance every single time, not sometimes.

That said, the real percentage for bluff raises on the river in LLSNL is probably down in the 10% range, so I would definitely always be folding bluff-catchers readless, AINEC.

Thanks. Good summarize.

My plan isn't to limp in to fold to a raise; I'm almost always reraising a raise (although there will be rare exception cases).

I'm saying in this case here that once we raised UTG and then got 3bet by UTG+1 that there are some pretty good arguments for folding (especially if we're at a full table, especially if neither we nor the villain have maniac images, especially with no other dead money in the pot). A 3bet in this situation is typically very strong.

I think I've explained my postflop reasons quite clearly and think OP played it fine (other than the horrendous river call). I don't hate a very small turn bet but think checking is fine (could also be image dependent).

GcluelessNLnoobG

while I agree GG needs to open up his game

to state limping AK suited is non standard is not true

pre covid my typical $2-5 game most limped AK suited as they say
"its a drawing hand I can't even beat 2-2" and will fold if whiff flop
non-standard to me is seeing people raise , 3-bet, 4-bet AK

hell they don't raise KK because as they say " an A always comes on the flop"

If everyone starts limping KK that doesnt make it standard, that just makes it bad. Standard play isnt defined as "what everyone else does", but rather mathematically sound decision making to yield the most profit. That being said I misunderstood GG's post.

This is a great example and is probably my single biggest leak. I love to bluffcatch, not so much because I want to be a hero or anything, but rather when the hand doesnt make sense in my head. Like someone 3 barrel donkbetting on a board that favors my range. I look them up and probably 10% of the time I'm right and it feels great. The other 90% is pure spew.

Garick slides in the check-raise with the nuts... again.