The table is playing mostly loose-passive with the exception of an middle aged asian man on hero's left who seems like a competent TAG with some LAG tendencies. I haven't seen him show anything down yet as he only sat down a few orbits ago, but from his mannerisms and bet-sizing he seemed decent. He bought in full when he first sat down for $500.

Hero is having a rough session. I'm card dead, got it all-in with the nuts against two flush draws on the flop and they both got there, no action on big hands, etc. I have about $400 in front of me.

5 limpers to me in the small blind. I complete with Q 10 and BB checks.

Flop: J 8 9 Pot: $12 or so with the rake pulled.

I lead right out for $10. 4 callers.

Turn: (J 8 9) 2 Pot: $60

I bet $50. BB calls, everyone else folds.

River: (J 8 9 2) 9 Pot: $160

Hero for some reason checked. I don't know why. I know this should be a bet/fold spot.

Villian announces $235.

Hero....

Readless, this is a fold. I don't think we can reasonably expect villain to turn a top pair type hand into a bluff here. Doesn't seem like he should have too many solo tens in his range.

Pretty gross river card but your relative hand strength is very weak right now, although I am struggling to come up with a hand he would check from the BB and call the flop with. Would Axdd call this? I don't know. No reads on V but that would be a pretty loose call. Jxdd seems pretty unlikely but J9 or 89 are probably right in that wheelhouse.

i believe that type of player would raise either the flop or turn if he was drawing, especially if he had 2 pairs on a wet board.

I really think the check complicated things, but I am closer to a call to the asian lag because he only called you down, then when he saw weakness he overbet the pot.

Does he want you to call? If he does do you think he would bet no more than pot especially since you checked the river showing you are weak?

If I checked the river to induce, I would have gotten exactly what I wanted.

You already answered your question....should've bet/folded the river. Without knowing V's tendencies and without seeing any bluffs from him....makes this a very tough spot. Think I'd have to lay it down until I have more info on V.

call

Fwiw: I don't hate leading $15 here otf.
We can get calls from all kinds of worse hands, good draws, bad draws, whatever.
And people will be thinking about absolute bet sizing, not relative.

Good turn sizing.

River is a very standard bet/fold for $150 or so here.

As played, I think that I'm going to call.
There are so few XXdd combos in his range since we have the Td, and the river is the 9d which blocks a lot of pair+flush draw hands that might call otf and ott.

V shouldn't ever have JJ here. 88/99 are possible, but there's only 4 combos of that.
Obv he has all available J9/89 combos, but he also has all QT/T7/T9 combos.

Prolly soul reading him, asking for a seat change button, and calling.

I guess you can toss another 8 combos of T9 in his BB check range as well. On second thought this may be closer to a call. I think if he was going to value bet he would go smaller. Why so big on river? Almost like he doesn't want you to call. I don't know - this really could go either way. Absent any concrete reads you might want to go with a live read/tell.

Or does he have a house or backdoor flush and hope I'll be unable to get away from a straight or some other strong-on-the-flop-but-not-so-strong-now hand?

if he thinks you have a straight, why would you check the river? by checking the river you are telling him you gave up on the hand or you think his hand is better.

I don't know how he would be so sure you have a straight after checking the river.

If he did have a boat or flush he would still want you to call and probably value lower.

on the other hand, big bets in 1/2 are usually the goods but with an asian lag in there after you check the river doesn't make it an easy fold tho

First, we have to swallow the puke in our mouth.
We need to be right 35% of time.

Readless, I am folding. We just arnt showing a big enough profit long term to call.

We are definitely ahead a good chunk here, but it is anywhere close to 35%.

In retrospect. I doubt I am good enough to bet/fold here either. If we bet $150 (as suggested). Can we realley fold for $75 more? I could bet $100 and find a fold.

Definitely think this is a fold.

Disclaimer:
IRL. I am calling alot. In game I tend to find Hero calls. Then after I break down the hands it was pure spew. (Look at my last thread, I made 3 spewtastic calls, and won!!!)

I'm not sure if he is betting the river huge with these hands or not. I think it's close but i'd discount them for sure. Also, it seems more likely that he would raise the turn with a straight. Also it's hard to call a close to pot sized bet on the turn with T9 middle pair and a straight draw with 3 players left to act behind you.

The holdings that beat us that he is likely to have based on the action are:

Flushes (maybe all Jxdd and maybe KQdd but definitely QJdd, KJdd, AJdd)
J9 - 9 combinations
98 - 9 combinations
88 - 3 combinations
99 - 1 combination

He could be bluffing with JT or QJ potentially but unlikely with AJ/KJ.

Also, keep in mind this is a 1/2 game vs a seemingly competent player. If we knew this guy was a crazy lag or a spaz then it would be real close and at higher levels I would probably call but this guy's range is mostly value and our hand is face up as worse than a full house (and thus worse than a flush based on the action).

While we are leveling ourselves on his range. (Which could be super wide here).

If he is bluffing. He needs to get folds a ridiculous amount of the time. Which is why over bet bluffing is terrible at 1/2.

Over betting for value. Is single handedly where I make my most profit. (I generally have very laggy image: get looked up extremely light)

Grunch:

Yepper, this needs to be a lead OTT with the intent of GII.

This feels like a busted SD or a 9 like T9. Two pair & sets get a raise in at some point IMO on a medium coordinated board. There's an outside chance of a BDFD but if that was the case, why is he overbetting the pot with such a concealed hand? I 50/50 between calling and CRAI.

Only 6x J9
And 6x 98 here.

Not sure if it makes a huge difference in our final decision, but just something to note. Takes the number of combos we lose to down by 6, which could be a high as 30% less here depending on how we discount anything.

Except for the fact that all he did preflop was check his BB. He might conceivably have any Jxdd.

This is an awful spot because so few hands make sense, either that we beat or that beat us. The only value hand that we beat that I can think of that makes sense is T9, and there are 6 combos of that. But would trip 9s really bet that much on a board that a) should be scary to anyone who can't beat trip 9s, and b) might be scary for him as well? (I think other made hands we beat would have raised flop or turn--the only possible exception being a hand like 88/98 that somehow put us on a huge hand and is bombing it now that he filled up, but that beats us now anyway.)

As far as bluffs, there are plenty of hands that might have gotten this far that need to bluff--Villain could have any Tx (since all he did was check the BB). I think if we know Villain is capable of bluffing a busted Tx with an overbet like this, we probably have to call because once we put that in his range it probably comprises the majority of it. But if Villain were bluffing, would he bet this big? I mean, maybe...he might think we have a big hand because we bet the turn into a huge field of flop callers. But I don't know, and it sounds like OP doesn't either.

In a vacuum, I am folding. It looks like value, and value means probably Jxdd, which we are losing to. In-game I might either avoid this spot by bet/folding, or I *might* call if I had a read that this could be a bluff with Tx.

EDIT: By the way, I wonder if we might want to check/raise flop or turn. What OP did is fine too, but I don't think it's bad to try for a check/raise on either street.

CRAI seems like complete spew to me. If he is good enough to be bluffing this scare card. Then he is good enough to fold 95% hands we beat.

If we are CRAI. Are we turning the hand into a bluff? Hoping he would fold better?

LLSNL players never fold boats!!!!
Rarely fold flushes.

No necessarily. On the flop we bet out and he is next to act with 3 players behind him so a call would be pretty standard. On the turn we bet close to pot into 4 players which is a super strong line which is why he would call the turn with 2 pair/set type hands.

Because our hand is face up as worse and he knows the overbet looks super bluffy. Against most players this is either the nuts or air, but vs this opponent as described his range is actually wider than that (potentially both for value and bluffs).

If we were deeper that would be a massive overplay.

While we are super strong who's to say we aren't double barreling with a lesser hand with a fair amount of equity like a pair + SD? Or maybe we went full 'tard with a naked SD. IMO even something like two pair gets a raise in, probably OTF.

I considered your second point and really the only hand that could call a significant overbet is the straight. If the villain is competent he has to consider we've bet with lesser hands that could be checking the river (TP + SD combos and two-pair that's now worried about the 9). It's interesting if he is overbetting for value but IMO most LLSNL villains would want to go for a smaller bet amount that is more likely to get called.

Point 3: Pot is $395 when villain bets. We have $360 behind. If we move in, the pot will be $755 and it will be $125 left to call to win $880, or 7-1. Probably a bit optimistic to think we'll get a call from a naked 9 and it's probably a bit spewey to CRAI, so I'm gonna back down on my initial thoughts and make this a straight call.

I kind of feel like he is going to show you KT.

I agree with this...hand is underrepped, villain could have many bluffs and worse hands....I would make the crying call most likely..

I also agree with leading out on the river instead of checking but oh well...

I call, figuring some of the time I may lose, but this is 1/2...Trips gets people excited and I can even see TPTK doing it and of course bluffs...

I didn't specify it in the OP but it's actually 1/3. In this venue it makes a difference because the 1/2 is capped at $200 and the 1/3 at $500 and players often buy in for the max.

Realistically calling isn't a massive mistake. Folding isn't a massive mistake.

Still think with Reads Given.

That a competent player, that has only played a few orbits. Is ready to bluff off half his stack. In a vacuum. This is a fold.


How often are you guys seeing overbet bluffs? I am curious. Because any over bet at all is super rare in my games. Normally pretty nutted from some OMC or beginner.

I put in a fair amount of hours, and I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen an overbet bluff and still have fingers left over.

You just answered your own thread then.