GRUNCH
I level myself in these spots all the time. The thinking goes, "When we check river, he has to know we don't like our hand, so if he was betting for value then he would be $100-ish, but since he is blasting the pot with an overbet he must not want a call, and if he doesn't want a call then he is bluffing!!!!"
And so we call, and villain shows us a boat or flush...
The problem is that LLSNL villains don't think in terms of value. They think in terms of caveman level 1 poker. When they have a weak hand they check or bet weak, when they have a medium strength hand they bet medium bets, when they have a monster they bet big.
So in this spot, when he blasts the river, I tend to think he got there.
Now the other side of the leveling equation is that if V is terribad, then he can very well think that T9 is a MONSTER afterall, it's trips
.
The fact that we hold the T
is huge, that and the fact the 9
hits on the river reduces V's combo of flush draws to around 4. AJs, KJs, QJs, J8s
I guess the real question is, does this V have it in him to bluff here? And truth be told, most LLSNL players just don't bluff enough nor bluff all that well. So I'm fine puke folding here.
Only way I call is if this V had a habit of blasting rivers and I noticed he had been blasting rivers 50% or so of the time when he makes it to the river and action is checked to him. If that is the case, then I call here. But barring that, I fold.
Our turn sizing should have gotten rid of a lot of fledgling hands and after showing that much strength on turn, most villains don't bluff river. So for him to call the turn bet, I think he had a set, two pair, or big Jack which would mean J
x
'
uggh, sick spot, I think puke fold is fine.