Yeah, donkbetting in this spot would generally work way better if say the CO or button had raised to isolate a bunch of limpers who ended up limp-calling. Donking right into the UTG raiser in a multi-way pot kind of defeats the purpose and is like running headfirst into a concrete wall.

Hero has recently moved to the table. While we are positionally aware, assuming an unknown's early raising range is very strong is giving too much credit.
Understand how relative position on initial aggressors effect check-raises, but it is highly opponent dependent. Unknowns are equally likely to check behind or bet when the original aggressor shuts down, thereby decreases its relevance.
Donk leads loses dead money when raised but is compensated by instances where players left to act intended to check behind.
Check-raising
A. Villain bets and everyone calls
B. Villain bets and no one else takes interest
C. Villain checks and someone else bets
D. Villain checks and everyone checks around

Donk Leading
A. Villain raises and folds
B. Villain raises and calls
C. Villain folds and no one else takes interest
D. Villain calls and multiple players join

Both options have equal outcomes, but check raising relies on someone else to bet. The potential dead money does not compensate for missed value when others check behind. Donk leading is superior since it relies on less and has no negative outcomes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jen-Sung Tan

Hero has recently moved to the table. While we are positionally aware, assuming an unknown's early raising range is very strong is giving too much credit.

Understand how relative position on initial aggressors effects check-raises, but it is highly opponent dependent. Unknowns are as equally likely to check behind or bet when the original aggressor shuts down, decreasing the relevance.

Donk leads loses dead money when raised but is compensated by instances where players left to act intended to check behind.

Check-raising
A. Villain bets and everyone calls
B. Villain bets and no one else takes interest
C. Villain checks and someone else bets
D. Villain checks and everyone checks around

Donk Leading
A. Villain raises and folds
B. Villain raises and calls
C. Villain folds and no one else takes interest
D. Villain calls and multiple players join

Both options have equal outcomes,

I'm not sure being able to list 4 things that can happen in each scenario = Equal outcomes.

Not entirely sure how to respond here... Seems kind of like you're just arguing for the sake of it.

I mean an ep raise is obviously stronger than an lp raise. That's pretty common sense no matter what.

Opponents are far more likely to bet with a hand when the original raiser checks behind because they know they can't check raise and they know that it's less likely that someone behind will bet. It's just a fact that most people don't donk into the original raiser with a made hand when it's likely the original raiser will bet and they can pick up an extra bet.


It's just not very likely that all 3 of them are checking behind and ifthey are then it's very likely that we just bet most blank turns and take down the pot anyways so it's a bit of a moot point.


I mean you're acting like everything is extremely opponent dependent when in fact it's mostly just common sense about how most players react in certain situations. It's not like we're saying "c/r the river because he's likely to bluff with is missed draws" which is extremely villain dependent, we're just taking common sense from just about every poker player and applying it. In fact your situation is far more opponent dependent, because you're basically suggesting that opponent will bluff raise with an overpair then fold, which in fact very few people are going to do.


I really don't understand your "Equal outcomes" example either. First of all some outcomes are far more likely than others, and second of all some are much more preferable than others.

Possibilities were listed by likelihood, but the point is that Donk leading is better since it forces decisions on opponents while having no negative outcomes.

so which is most likely? Villain raises and then folds his overpair, or villain calls and multiple players join?

One seems extremely unlikely and one seems like an extremely negative outcome to me, but since there are no negative outcomes it's a bit confusing.

b/3b has to be > c/c imo

i think it goes

b/3b > c/r > c/c

To clarify if it has not already become apparent, my default is leading big draws and monsters into preflop aggressors.

Barring superior draws, being called is positive since combination draws retain similar equity regardless of players involved. For this reason, the statement that there are no negative outcomes from either decision is correct.There are superior ones, however.

Regardless of the likelihood of raise/folding, leading creates instances where the villain has the potential to make incorrect decisions. Fold equity is helpful, but the main benefit is image. Visualize the following: Hero moves in after being raised and is snap called. Worst case scenario, right? Wrong. The draw is still favored. How will villain react if hero donk three bet shove in similar future situations? Knowledge that hero is capable of moving in on the come will likely induce wrong decisions.

we donk $50 pot is $175 on the turn which is a 4c. We bet $125 and villain shoves.

Positive or negative outcome?

Clearly not the most idealistic possibility, but still profitable since the pot is offering $700 to $275 with 30% equity.

the call is breakeven at best, and no the overall play would not be profitable in this scenario because we made a huge mistake by leading the turn.

If you 4bet 2/7o preflop to 90% of your stack then get shoved on, yeah you're making a profitable call but still the play itself was bad and you forced yourself into a situation where you had to call, which is similar to what we did in my situation.

Overall worse case, but should show that there are negative outcomes.

Long story short, by donking we completely take away our option to collect dead money, we take away any chance to leverage his stack, and we minimize our fold equity. c/r is clearly the best play here.

But I'm done with this thread, nice discussing it with you.