disregard rake

2/5 with 500 stacks

folds to you in SB with KK

You open to 20
BB defends

FLOP(40) 672

You bet 40
Villian raises to 120 and immediately exposes his hand of 89

Pot is 200

You use your jedi mind control to dictate his next action.

What do you do?

And what does he do in response to your action?

(For example, I shove and he calls)

Bonus points to whoever shows the most optimal action.

Call, make him shove the turn, and then call again whenever it isn't a 5 or a T. In response to my action he sighs and says, "good call."

A few questions if we are going to do this:



I'll hide them in case people want to think about situations that might affect their decisions.

we are like 65%. call

we can shove and he can fold, I would rather he chase to be honest

I flat and evaluate the Turn. If safe, I shove with only one card to come. We are 63% or so to win here OTF so calling $80 into $200 is a no brainer. A shove is 'only' =EV and I am willing to wait until the Turn comes out since he has afforded me the information.

Any non 5/10/spade is an open shove here. Even if he pairs I don't care ... 13 outer to River.

This is a coin flip of sorts here OTF and we have an opportunity to limit our exposure by getting this to the Turn where V is probably less than 30% going to the River and we can make sure he is putting his money in bad. Right now he is =EV to make a $360 call into $640 if we shove the Flop.

So shoving Flop is =EV .. we aren't really in that 'business'. We want +EV spots .. and that will come if a blank hits the Turn. I would rather he put his money in bad than even. GL

call is wrong answer

raise to any amount you feel BB will call

275-300 probably

he will still call off when he misses ott especially if another comes

Edited Hand for red kings.

We are in control up until river, when equity has polarized and there is still money behind he play his hand perfectly (folding all worse and betting/raising all better)

but how do we know he will call tho and not fold it

Under the assumption that we can get some folds, then it may be +EV to shove here. But when you compare losing more (if Turn hits) to winning less on folds it may also be a wash.

It is also not a sure thing that we get anymore chips from him at all here.

You can't raise any amount of chips other than shove, as you are pricing him into the correct call at 37% to win. So it's call or shove here .. why give him a +EV call when you have all the information? We never have all the information in poker and the chips staks here don't allow us to exploit it other than with a flat here on the Flop.

sure you can. get the most value you can on each street while you're ahead!

the obv problem with calling is he knows you saw his cards and he's liable to check behind the turn & river unimproved

so the flop is a must raise unless there is something to this hypothetical I missed

It seems like there is some confusion.

We will dictate what he does in response to our action on every street accept river.

So it could be something like

I shove flop, he calls.

I shove flop, he folds.

I call, non 5/10 turn I shove he calls

I call, non 5/10 turn he folds

ect

Ship the bonus points.

Does this mean I can raise and make him fold, but if I raise and make him reraise to all but $1, I can't raise all-in for that last dollar and make him fold?

1)Yes, you can raise and make him fold.

2) No, but nice try! lol

Not going to answer this (yet), but I will ask who has a copy of The Mathematics of Poker and suggest they take a look at Chapter 7 if they have one.

So, we can dictate his next action, but not his next action after that (assuming he still has options at that point)?

We can do something along the lines of

I raise to xxx he fold/calls

But not something like I raise to xxx and he jams/folds (I don't see any merrit in this anyhow)

1) In order to maximize your play in poker you need to make the other player make -EV decisions. You cant do that here since there arent enough chips in the shove to make it so .. it's =EV. You may get some chips when you raise other than shoving, but you are losing value to the EV of the situation. The shove is only a break even proposition right now. So it just turned into gambling, not poker.

1A) We are very much priced into a flat here as a 63% to win spot. That is a +EV use of our chips.

2) We are in SB, we shove any non 5/10 Turn into the V in BB since we are now in a +EV situation with the chips going into the pot with only 1 card to come. There is no more reason to hold chips back since V can fold the River if he misses.

Note: Obv I am never folding here, I edited the post to call or shove. . GL

*sigh* I would have much preferred the example to be KK vs :98 on a 762 board to make the math easier.

Someone could see the merit of setting up a certain SPR on the turn, but they'd probably be wrong.

But again, this would be irrelevant because we know exactly where we stand,

and are capable of making V call a gross overshove regardless.

Making him call a flop shove would be +EV for us. I have no idea why people are saying it isn't.

However, there's a better option, and I'm surprised we've gotten this far into the thread with no one mentioning it:

I call flop. Makes the pot 280 with 360 behind.

If the turn is the 5 or T, I make him check, so I can see a free river (hoping for the redraw to hit).

If the turn is anything else, I make him jam all 360 and then call or fold accordingly depending on whether his straight got there. Even if he hits a backdoor draw, the most he'll have is 15 outs, and he's still wrong to be putting 360 into a 280 pot in that scenario.

EDIT: Just saw we are in the SB. Basic idea is the same, though.

The first thing is we control his next action. Therefore, it is just a matter of what action is most +EV. I'm assuming we only control his next action, not all his actions in the future.

What we do is call. If he completes his straight on the turn, we check and force him to check behind. If it is the 5d or Td, we can see if we runner-runner a flush. If not, we fold. If he misses, we shove and force him to call. In this way we win the maximum if he misses and lose the minimum if he hits on the turn.

Good question OP, I my first instinct was wrong.