Setting:
The Orleans 1-3 game

Players:
I just switched tables. Players are all unknown to me.
BB = old man
CO = young kid


CO limps
Hero is in SB with K K and raises to $15
BB calls ($70 behind) - CO calls ($300)
3 players
Pot = $45

Flop: 8 8 5
Hero leads $20 - BB raises to $40 - CO calls $40 - Hero ??

I have no concern about BB's raise or his short stack.
CO probably has the Flush Draw?
Being out of position, I need to pump this up.
But what is the appropriate size to 3bet here?
And is it prudent to fold if he came back over the top with a 4bet?

What's our plan?
Please advise.

--CM

I'm fine with preflop.

I would mix in some checks on this flop, especially against unknowns (where I'm leaning to getting to showdown).

I'm not concerned about BB either (if he has us beat after putting in ~20% of his stack preflop, nice hand sir).

But CO should be a real concern here. He just cold called a raise with the betting still open, on a paired board no less. A lotta people will fold their draws in this case fearing that we'll be coming back over the top. We can't just hurp durp stack off against this guy having gotten in only 5% of our stack preflop.

A reraise puts us in a dumb spot. Even if we go to like 3x $120, the BB is obviously going to come along, so that will give the CO fairly decent 3.5:1 to come along. But it also leaves us with << 1/2 PSB left; feeling committed? Also keep in mind that CO won't necessarily reraise, and so we'll just be punting into better on the turn anyways.

So I'd just flat and see how things play out. BB is obviously going to go all in and protect the pot from bluffs and overvalues, and so if CO seems interested in putting much money in afterwards then I can probably hero fold. I'm less interested in charging the draws (which he only has + will get there a very small percentage of the time) than I am about punting stacks into better.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Alarm bells. Loud alarm bells.

With that board, what are your opponents playing? Straight draw? They would have had to have called your raise with 76. Flush draw? Maybe. But are they raising you on the flop, and cold calling that raise, with a flush draw? Overpair to the board? Maybe...if they're dumb enough not to realize that their 1010 or JJ might not be any good.

I might be OK with continuing to play this hand hard heads up, but against two opponents, one of whom has raised me on the flop, I think there's a substantial chance that one of them has me beaten. I'm not throwing my hand away just yet, but all I'm going to do is call and reevaluate on the turn. I hate being OOP here.

Paired boards in these situations are minefields. You're not going to improve, so you're going to have to fade the chance that you're already beaten (quite possible) and/or that they beat you on the turn or river.

This is an infuriating situation. You have two opponents that both seem bad. One open limped then called from the CO. The other flat called a good chunk of his short stack from the BB. These are both fishy moves but don't tell you much about what kind of player they are.

The flop action is such that you could reasonably be facing hands that leave you far behind, well ahead or coin flipping against draws. Either BB or CO could be playing a 9X hand this way, leaving you drawing real thin already. You could also easily be facing two worse pairs, putting you well ahead in equity. Either or both could be on a flush draw, have a straight draw or a combo draw.

My inclination is to flat call and see what develops. Your committed against BB but not CO. With a little luck the flop action and paired board will freeze things and you can check the hand down. If CO puts in a big bet fold will be best. Occasionally you will find CO making a stupid bluff but there is a good chance when he does that BB had 9X anyways.

Tricky spot, being OOP I'd opt to flat and not blow up the pot. X all turns.

From a configuration POV, I'm tempted to weight FD more in the CO range. I believe his 8X hands click it up to commit the BB remaining stack before an action card stopper (club, 4-straight) hits turn.

There are a lot of over pairs that also take this line, believing your c-bet is too small.

You could size up pre. I'm fine blasting the flop vs bad players. Given BB's sizing, he's probably trying to milk the most out of an 8. I think calling turn and hoping for a cleanish runout where we can get a bit more out of CO is the best. BB's going to jam all turns, hopefully CO just flats when we can throw in a raise since it'll just be $30 into $225, assuming non club/straightening turns. If we raise small enough, his club draws will come along and maybe we can get some profit because we're behind BB very often here. (old dude with no stack min raising flop is almost always an 8 here, but he's got no chips and we gotta pay him... maybe he got fresh with JJ/QQ). If CO shows aggression OTT, I'm done with the hand.

I've done this for a long time and have had very mixed results. So much so that it has impacted my win rate.

I think it's time to give this approach a serious try.

I'm not sure if you misread what I wrote, but my line is basically the same GG (although I disagree about CO not having any draws). We should flat the minclick OTF and check the turn. Maybe where I diverge from GG is that if CO just flats the teeny jam from BB I'm thinking of x/raising for value.

edit: maybe it was when I wrote "I think calling turn and hoping for a cleanish runout where we can get a bit more out of CO is the best." I meant call flop and hope for a clean run-out.

$0 is the right size for a 3b. Not folding yet but just cause you have an overpaid doesn’t mean you’ve earned the pot or are owed anything.

My apologies, I read way more than I post and I was intrigued by the thread and was thinking in terms of my game.

First, my 1/3 games play deeper ($500+) and $15 tends to be the standard open. If the standard open was $9-$12 in your game, then $15 from OOP was fine. If, however, the standard open was $10-$15, then with a limper and the BB still in, I would have preferred $20, or even $25, depending on game specifics.

On the flop, my default in a spot like that would have been to bet closer to 2/3-3/4 pot (rounded to the nearest $5), or $30-$35. Mainly for value and to deny equity to any draws, also stiffer bets provide better information when the villain's act.

The downside to bets like that is that you sometimes build a pot big enough that it's difficult to get away (SPR). Also, it can be hard to get 3 streets of value. That is why I'm intrigued by GG's approach.

And no, I don't think you played the hand like GG. You led a 44% PSB, which while less than I would have, is still stiff. Then when the BB min raises on a short stack, it is clearly for value - he defiantly wants to get his stack in. You seem very cavalier about the CO hopping the raise, including draws in his range. Presumably, because he is a young kid. I, like GG, don't think it's that automatic. However, you were in the game. Including why you thought that would have been useful in the post.

As played and baring picking up any tells, there I no way I'm doing anything but calling and checking 100% of turns. I want to see what the CO does after the BB shoves, which he almost certinally will.

I'm not the creator of this thread. This wasn't my hand. I'm just some guy responding.

In regards to CO's range... even after BB's clickback, CO's still facing a less than a PSB, so I think all his draws are in play and he's not necessarily 8x heavy. It's not because he's a young kid but because he's not facing a huge overbet or anything. There's $105 in the pot and he's gotta call $40. Pretty good odds for draws.


In regards to playing overpairs on flops like this... it's fine to check the flop (Though AA is better to do it with), or bet small if you don't want to build a pot, especially when we don't have a Kc and no chance at a backdoor flush. I just think vs poor players, we get the most value by betting flop large, as you said. There's nothing forcing you to fire all three streets though just because we fire a large flop bet. We can always check turns and rivers. Just seems like we get the most by betting large when we know club draws, 67, mid pairs like 99,77,66 will float us.

The thread title is your leak.

So we should focus on pot control rather than maximizing our value from Flush Draws and lesser OverPairs?

--cm

Stop worrying about value on the flop and stop worrying about value as a whole on any flop and stop worrying about value on flops that aren’t great for your actual range and for sure stop confusing checking with losing value and don’t confuse checking with pot control and the Orleans is a shthole.

This is a decent spot to call flop and check all turns. BB will shove turn and co will have to act before us. If he just calls turn both our options are appealing. He will have little reason to bluff us in a dry side. Conversely, we can raise to get value and create a side pot. Either option is good

MY 1ST THOUGHT as well but you beat me to it

There is more than one correct way to play any hand and table image is important. Sometimes we raise AK preflop and check a flop of K82r so the villains have a harder time ranging our hand. This hand isn't much different, it's called mixing up our play.

Note that GG didn't say "always check the flop", he said "mix in some checks on this flop". He continued with "especially against unknowns (where I'm leaning to getting to showdown)". I presume that this is because if they're unknown to you, you're unknown to them and this is an opportunity to create a false impression and quite possibly change your bad absolute position into a good relative position, not to mention that he wants to gain as much information as early as possible. This is why I'm intrigued by his approach.

The overall idea isn't to maximize EV in a single hand, it's to maximize EV over the time you play with your villains.

Unless that's an obscure Jewish insult (I'm thinking of "shtetl"), I agree with you.

However, I play there on occasion because the rake is the lowest in town and they occasionally have good promos. They also comp a little better than most.

Oh sht. I just realized that you're not supposed to talk about rake on these forums. Worrying about rake is unmanly. I won't do it again please put that gun down I promise no please *BLAM* (thud).

Not sure why you need to protect anything here.
Our hand is clearly too strong to fold, they could have worse value hands, though a bit unlikely.

Our hand is too weak to raise, we're not getting anything worse to call if we raise.
Well they probably are calling with straight and/or flush draws, so I wouldn't hate raising.

Anyway, I'd never fold vs BB here and CO's range could be very wide.

I think I'd call and then call once more on turn or river.
My first thought was to lead turn, but that puts us in a terrible spot on the river.

If CO is the type of player who chases draws and/or calls too much in general we can definitely lead turn and river though.

You generally should be trying to maximize EV in every single hand. "Mixing it up" should only happen when the EVs of each mixed action are exactly the same, or in practice indistinguishably close.

Of course maximizing EV over time is best but that's mostly accomplished by maxing over each individual decision in isolation.

I'm noticing a pattern here

Oh, how I disagree. I will often give up EV in small and sometimes medium pots to gain EV in large pots. Even some of the better (less bad) regs won't adjust to your actions based on the pot size, or understand calling a medium'ish bet can commit them later in the hand.

Agreed and it's worth thinking about a highly exploitative fold here. (For all they know you have AK.) It's probably OK to take the next card off and make sure this isn't a little stopping minraise and a draw cold calling, plus 5% to spike the nuts.

But failing to consider a fold because "If I start folding KK, they'll raise everything!" would be terrible logic when applied to live $1-3. (Not aimed at the post I'm replying to, just in general.) Being exploitable only matters when our opponents are good at exploiting.

The cold call is scarier than the raise IMO. I suspect CO has at least an 8. Rarely one has clubs and the other has 76 I suppose. EDIT: I'm wrong because I'm not considering the cold call is still getting great odds to draw, even if they should be worried about you reraising. So I think calling, checking, and using the new information on the turn (not "reevaluating" -- we're thinking about reactions to specific turn actions now, not after the info comes in) is best.

If money EV is our criterion, there really isn't. However, there is so much uncertainty around fundamentally unknowable parameters that very good players could play differently.

Absolutely.



Sure, but the question is whether you need to. You can play highly exploitatively and still look like you're mixing it up.

From time to time I lean to opposite sides of this argument. If you just got caught bluffing 3 times in a live game, I don't think many bluff opportunities will still be profitable. That's "mixing up your play" like a thermostat mixes it up.

Sounds like you’re intentionally implementing a loss-leader strat, not good.