$1-$2 NL

I have played with these players often and know their ranges well.
MP ($600) Loose-Passive Calling Station. Often reveals his action ahead of time.
Button ($1000) Loose-Aggressive Fish. He is the reason we are at the table. He bets and raises when behind.
BB ($115) Tight-Passive. Very Nitty. Rarely bets. Often folds.

Hero is UTG ($570) with A8

Hero raises to $8. MP calls. BTN calls. BB calls.
4 Players
Pot = $33

Flop: QT7
BB bets $20, Hero calls. MP calls. BTN raise to $120. BB calls all-in for $115.

As I contemplate my next play, MP grabs calling chips. I decide to play passively to get this extra money into the pot.

Hero calls. MP calls.
4 Players (3 with chips)
Main Pot = $493
Side Pot = $15

Turn: 5
Hero ??

I flopped the nuts. My opponents still have a lot of money in their stacks to give me. What is the best way to extract this?

Reads:
BB always has a Set or a Flush. He will never make this bet or this call with less.
BTN would make this flop raise with as little as TP. But after three players call, we probably should expect him to slow down on the turn unless he has better.
MP would overcall the flop with as little as 2Pair. As long as we don't convince him we have a Flush, he will likely continue to call down.

Do we take the lead now on the turn?
How strong do we go?
Please advise.

--CM

You say MP is a loose passive calling station. So I'm betting here - I expect him to call and maybe I'll get lucky and the Button will raise

There is like $500 in the pot, I probably go $220 here.

Interested to see what others say.

Even at $150 you’re making it cheap to string along 1 or two players, but I’d lead out with a bit more.

Have to bet the turn. I agree with other posters on sizing. I like $175-200 or so.

You have $342 left in your stack and there is more than that in the pot. So IMO, it is more important to ensure you do what you can to win the main pot instead of trying to be tricky and win more from MP or button. Make them pay to draw. If it were HU, then I would say maybe slowplay but not versus 3 others, one of whom is all in.

I would lead ~$200 here and if one of them is really loose I might even just shove.

The continuation...

Hero is UTG ($570) with A8

Hero raises to $8. MP calls. BTN calls. BB calls.
4 Players
Pot = $33

Flop: QT7
BB bets $20, Hero calls. MP calls. BTN raise to $120. BB calls all-in for $115. Hero calls. MP calls.

Turn: 5
Hero bets $100. MP calls. BTN calls.

River: Q

4 Players (3 with chips)
Main Pot = $493
Side Pot = $315

The board has paired.
I no longer have the nuts.
We are first to act.
I have $342 left in my stack.
The others have me covered.
What is our plan?

Push all-in?
Check-Call a shove?
Check-Fold?

Please advise

--cm

So on the turn you bet $100 into $475?? Before I advise on the river, please explain this sizing because I think it is awful.

+1

If I played the flop the way you did, the reason would be to wait for safe turn to get all in. You got a safe turn. I wouldve open shoved the turn.

Flatting flop to the original bet and then the squeeze and then betting 1/2p or shoving the turn feels stupid strong. I would have just shoved over the squeeze on the flop and be done with it. Fish are calling off their 2p/sets there anyway.

That turn bet was indeed a disaster sizing. You can bet/fold the river although you're going to be folding it a lot in that case. If you check it sounds like the BTN will shove and then you're really in a weird spot.

gotta bet more on that turn, thinking at least 200 if not shoving. Smells like flushes. I guess sets are possible (boat on the river), but QQ is prolly a no based on pf, even TT and 77 i think raise the flop or turn.

Even w/the pair on the board I still like betting the river. KJ/J9 can call

Who cares? The pot is already over 200BBs. If you shove and they all fold, its not a bad result, but if one of the big stacks has a set he still may call. He will have 23% equity vs a flush. OP has $440 left and the total pot is $508. If OP shoves, the first guy only needs 31% equity to call. Basically anything less than a shove and youre giving correct odds to call with a set. Its very unlikely anyone is folding a smaller flush in a pot this big even if we shove.

We need to be the guy putting people to impossibly tough decisions not being the one with the tough decision which is what we have now on this river.

It's not about bad results, it's about better results. Are you more likely to get a shove call on the flop from a set/2p or from a brick on the turn? I think the answer is fairly obvious so I'm not sure I understand what your argument is here unless you don't care about value. Yes, it matters.

V needing 31% to call the turn is irrelevant. Did you not read the descriptions? You think they're calculating their equity vs. the size of the pot? C'mon man, you're smarter than that.

+1. You got "greedy" not wanting these guys to fold and it really cost you. Now on the river we're in a tough spot.

Yes, I read the descriptions. The fact remains that we want them to call us down but we want them to call us down incorrectly. If we make a small bet, they are calling correctly with 2 pair/set.

fast play the nut flush unless you're against someone who is dumping money into the pot.

/thread

The only action you're getting in passive live games is from 2nd/3rd nut draws or two pair/sets which have equity against you. And since the latter have a redraw to a stronger hand, you have to charge them to continue, for your own value.

You are right it is about better results. And in this hand, that means protecting the large pot with a large bet which any set or 2p MAY call incorrectly or if they fold then wheeeee....we win the large pot now.

Also the 31% equity IS relevant whether V knows it or not. Make him call an amount that denies him equity is >>>>>>>>better than paying him your $ to draw (which is what you effectively do in EV space when you bet too small). Cmon man...YOU are smarter than that.

You're taking my quotes out of context here. I already stated the small turn bet sizing was awful. My comment about the 31% turn equity not mattering has to do with you jamming the squeeze on the flop vs. betting/jamming the turn. V is more likely to call a flop shove after you jam the squeeze bet with a set or 2p than he is to likely to call a jam on the turn where he only needs 31% equity (which he's not calculating). We're talking about two different things here.

A total brick on the turn is a terrible card to wake up with a jam with if you're expecting the average LLNL mouth-breather to call it. I'm much more likely to get my value out of them with a flop jam because they're NOT calculating that 31% referenced above.

You are right I did. My bad. Still not sure I love a shove over the squeeze on the flop but I can see it. I still want someone with the naked Kor even J to maybe catch up, but I guess it would depend on the feel at the table right then. Shove might be the best play too as it looks bluffier as well and maybe you get smaller flushes drawing dead to call.

Agreed.
Turn sizing was terrible and was just asking to be punished by a bad river.
I got what I deserved with the paired board.

Now as played, what should our river action be?

This is exactly right.
I am sure BTN will stab at this if checked to no matter if he has me beat or not. That is how he plays.
So checking to gain information is unlikely to be helpful.
If I am willing to call this bet, should I just lead out myself?
If I bet, do I shove?
Or do I just give up with a check-fold?

Thanks for the feedback.

--cm

With two Vs in the pot, I think it's check/fold > bet/fold >>>>>>>>>>>> shove

If it was just 1 V I'd probably say bet/fold > check/fold >>>>>>>>>>>> shove

+1 depending on sizing. You can call any smallish bets