1-3 nl 400 max 7 handed

V BB ~$400 30ish white guy seems a tad tight and a tad aggro. Notable HH hero $25 bets flop bets turn checks full house on a double paired board. V stabs ($125 into a $200 pot) with A high and missed combo draw.

H MAWG on a heater ~$1400

Pre
Folds to H in CO with 55 raises to $15.
Only V calls.

Flop($26 after rake) Qh 7s 5s
V checks
H $20
V calls

Turn ($63) 2c
V checks
H $50
V pauses then calls

River ($163) 7
V checks
H how much and how greedy can I be here

Other notes. In our previous hand V snapped called the turn when he had the combo draw. V also changed seats which gave me position on him in the second hand.

After typing this out V seems more passive then aggressive. Maybe the expectation was for him to be aggro, wish I could realize this in real time. I think I was on winners tilt and couldn't concentrate.

Obvious answer is "bout tree fiddy, " but that reference may be before your time.

If he's calling anything on this board, he's calling 1/2 pot, and prolly 2/3 almost as often as 1/2. With the read that he's aggro, I'd go $100, as that might read like an FOS attempt to blow him off the pot with what looks like a big bet. Given the change to maybe he's more passive except for that river bluff in the history, I make it $90 to keep it below the three figure threshold.

We are targeting a crying call from something like KQ, rather than A7 which will defo look us up. I think 80 to 90. Calling an unlikely jam.

If we think he might take a straight Jam as FoS, I'd consider that, but I didn't get that read from you.

I think the best chance at villain’s stack is to convince him to blast off, so I’m betting 50 again. Maybe you could get another 40 or more as a call. However, if villain becomes convinced that his queens are ahead, you could get it all.

I don't know what the most was, but I did find out that $250 was too much. Villain said AQ again and folded after thinking for a second. Was he worried about his kicker An underpair

For some reason I thought the draws missed he either has something good like a pair of queens or a seven and will call a big bet or has nothing and will fold to anything. Didn't consider this.

Very few folks are calling an overbet on a paired board with anything less than tripsTK. You're trying to target a bunch of combos of TPGK here. KQ is not calling an overbet, much less a massive one.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - seems okay. Might just pot it if we're going this big with bottom set on a somewhat wet connected board.

TURN - think we should over-bet. At least 1.5x pot.

RIVER - he called pre, and called two chunky bets post. All draws bricked. Seams like he's going to have Qx for value, at a minimum. Think we can probably bet $200 to target Qx. Pray he has 7x and raises.

Bet bigger on the turn, so you can get more on the river without having to go so large.

He said AQ to suggest he thought you had AQ, or to say he had AQ?

If he folded AQ or KQ, make a mental note that he over-folds to big river bets. Then size down with value and size up with bluffs, whenever you want think he's capped.

If he was just putting you on AQ and folding some worse 1P, that may suggest he's a tad MUBSy, and we need to calibrate by betting even smaller with value, and maybe we don't need to go quite as big with bluffs. Rarely if ever check to induce a bet from him. He won't bluff or bet thinly enough.

Without that info, a small over-bet with value and a slightly bigger over-bet with bluffs would be my starting points when thinking about what bet size to use.

1/2 - 2/3 pot

No need to get too greedy here, you've shown considerable strength and firing a 3rd big barrel isnt going to get looked up all that often imo. Since he has shown an aggressive tendency i'd consider a sizing around $50-$75 to give him room to go nuts.