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How good is my flush draw? How good is my flush draw?

12-16-2013 , 11:35 PM
Playing 1/2, 2 limpers to me in hijack, I limp with 7 5, cutoff and button limp, SB completes and BB checks. 7 players see the flop. I have a little less than 200 in chips and CO and Button have about the same.

BB seems nitty and has biggest stack at table around $500.
Button is pretty loose, passive and not sure about CO. Only a been at table 1/2 hour or so.

Flop is 6 9 K

SB checks, BB bets 12, two folds, I call, CO raises to 25, Button calls, BB calls...

What's my best play? I considered raising, calling and folding. Should I raise, maybe shove to get out better flush draws? Should I fold because it's likely a better flush draw is out there?
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-16-2013 , 11:48 PM
You have good equity if called by a better flush draw if we include fold equity (not too likely people fold flush draws at this level)

If you can handle the varience, I like shipping in this spot.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-16-2013 , 11:53 PM
Flat and re-evaluate the turn.

Lets not turn this preflop limp into a hand for our stack with a gutter and small FD....
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xJoshie
You have good equity if called by a better flush draw if we include fold equity (not too likely people fold flush draws at this level)

If you can handle the varience, I like shipping in this spot.
Everything about this seems contradictory. We have good equity if we get called by a better flush draw? Because people are unlikely to fold flush draws at this level? Does not compute.

Shipping here doesn't seem great either because it's incredibly unlikely that we get the three people who put $25 into the pot to fold on the flop...and if we get called and miss the flush and gutter we obviously don't win and even some of the times that we do hit the flush we aren't good then either.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 12:14 AM
I put the $13 dollars in on the flop....praying to drill gutter on the turn...planning to fold on turn if we do not improve and proceeding cautiously if we hit flush and there is a lot of action on the turn.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 12:31 AM
I like raising when it gets to you first time - it gets a lot of the better flush draws to fold while also putting pressure on bb's Ks (which are mostly weak) - Couple that with a big turn barrel when checked to and you printing money.

With regards to the hand. Fold or ship. Flatting is the worst because we're in an awkward spot to play - we're out of position and really only have 3 clean outs (non club 8's).

Shove while there's still fold equity.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 01:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lionhat
I like raising when it gets to you first time - it gets a lot of the better flush draws to fold while also putting pressure on bb's Ks (which are mostly weak) - Couple that with a big turn barrel when checked to and you printing money.

With regards to the hand. Fold or ship. Flatting is the worst because we're in an awkward spot to play - we're out of position and really only have 3 clean outs (non club 8's).

Shove while there's still fold equity.
How do you figure better flush draws are folding if hero raises here?

shoving a 7 high flush draw and gutter in a limped pot, after a bunch of action otf is really donkish.

Just call and play the turn.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 01:33 AM
IME 1/2 players don't raise with draws a lot. I'd put the CO on TP and he doesn't know what sizing is. He's giving you sick odds to draw to the sd and fd. Also ime, people don't lead with draws. 3 guys in my room are capable of leading with draws, everyone else will c/c c/c c/f (when it misses).

So I think your draws are live.

The better question how are you getting value when you hit. If the turn is the Jc what are you doing? Leading, c/r?...
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 03:02 AM
Ship or fold spot. Ship > Fold.

Vs as described are tight will not be calling off with a bigger flush draw. The donk min-raise and subsequent calls mean usually one pair at best and a couple of draws. I only see you getting hero-called by a K, and if you did, you have plenty of outs.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 03:10 AM
^ Didn't know we were not terribly deep. I'd probably raise the flop with the intent to shove a lot of turns.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 03:22 AM
Iso raise pre half the time here.

Raise flop 1/3-1/2 the time here.

As played, I'm probably flatting and evaluating. Fairly certain your combined FE on a ship with this many players showing interest is close to 0 at 1-2.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 03:29 AM
You definitely have FE there. Button's range is wide, BB's nitty, and I don't respect anyone who min-raises in a 5-way pot.

Also can't just raise flop. You need to raise AT LEAST 120 there as the pot is over $100. That will leave you with like 50-60 behind if you started with less than $200. Ship or fold.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 03:45 AM
7 callers, 14 in the pot... bb bets 12, 2 folds, this is where the raise to 30 should come in.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 07:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xJoshie
You have good equity if called by a better flush draw if we include fold equity (not too likely people fold flush draws at this level)

If you can handle the varience, I like shipping in this spot.
I can handle the variance, I'm worried that I will be called in 2 places, one with a better flush draw and the other with top pair or better.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 08:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lionhat
I like raising when it gets to you first time - it gets a lot of the better flush draws to fold while also putting pressure on bb's Ks (which are mostly weak) - Couple that with a big turn barrel when checked to and you printing money.

With regards to the hand. Fold or ship. Flatting is the worst because we're in an awkward spot to play - we're out of position and really only have 3 clean outs (non club 8's).

Shove while there's still fold equity.
Are you worried that there are only 3 possible top pair hands and I have 3 opponents?

If there was one more caller, does make it a fold on the flop? Would 2 more callers make it a fold?
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 08:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
IME 1/2 players don't raise with draws a lot. I'd put the CO on TP and he doesn't know what sizing is. He's giving you sick odds to draw to the sd and fd. Also ime, people don't lead with draws. 3 guys in my room are capable of leading with draws, everyone else will c/c c/c c/f (when it misses).

So I think your draws are live.

The better question how are you getting value when you hit. If the turn is the Jc what are you doing? Leading, c/r?...
If I hit I'm leading for sure. Button is pretty bad, I don't think he folds a K too often, maybe if I shove he does.

The other thing is if I catch my 8, I'm going to make lots of money. Probably go for turn c/r if that happens.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 08:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2
Ship or fold spot. Ship > Fold.

Vs as described are tight will not be calling off with a bigger flush draw. The donk min-raise and subsequent calls mean usually one pair at best and a couple of draws. I only see you getting hero-called by a K, and if you did, you have plenty of outs.
I assume you mean ship after the raise to 25. I think pot is too small to ship when it gets to me the first time, do you agree?

I'm worried my most likely caller is the CO and if he calls then a hand like the nut flush draw will call because he is getting very good odds. There is around $100 in the pot when it gets back to me closing the action. I'd really hate to get called by AK and Acxc.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 08:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunChips
7 callers, 14 in the pot... bb bets 12, 2 folds, this is where the raise to 30 should come in.
I thought it might be better not to raise here, because I don't have any callers trapped between me and the BB and I might be able to win a really big pot if I make my gutshot and lots of opponents are in the pot.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 09:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AceHigh
I thought it might be better not to raise here, because I don't have any callers trapped between me and the BB and I might be able to win a really big pot if I make my gutshot and lots of opponents are in the pot.
So you're flatting the $12 flop bet first time around, with two players to act behind you, hoping to hit a 3 outer? Without any clue to whether anybody has a second best hand strong enough to pay you off should you hit you magic draw?

Remember, if a club comes you're either getting no value or - due to shallow stacks - you'll be stacking off to a better flush.

This is raise the $12 bet every time, in order to drive out better non-nutted 4-flushes or higher gut-shots that would beat you unimproved, and hopefully either take it down right away or get HU against TP - or you should have folded pre.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 06:38 PM
I called on the flop.

4 players see the turn pot is $114.

Turn 5s

BB checks, I check, CO bets 75, Button calls, BB folds I call.

River is 2c

I bet all in for ~85, CO folds, button calls. My hand is good. BB tells me he folded Qc8c?!
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 06:52 PM
Just clubs didn't have the odds to call that 75, so BB made a good fold. But you had the gutshot also, those extra 3 outs were the difference between a bad call and good one. So you're call was good IF every time you bink otr you get that 85 fully paid off.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 07:09 PM
This is my first post ever (so be nice, lol)

Eldiesel:
If we believe what the BB said, he had a gutshot straight draw to the 7 as well.

Ace High:
I think Eldiesel is still kind of right though because you hitting the 5 on the turn gave you another potential 5 outs to win. So still probably a good fold by the BB and good call by you assuming that if the river is 5, 7, 8 or club you stack off. If V are tight and you can't fully double up, little point in calling.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
Just clubs didn't have the odds to call that 75, so BB made a good fold. But you had the gutshot also, those extra 3 outs were the difference between a bad call and good one. So you're call was good IF every time you bink otr you get that 85 fully paid off.
With the 150 added to the pot, the pot is 264 and he needs 308 (4.1*75) to make it profitable. So if he has implied odds of 44 or more it would be a profitable call.

I would guess I likely have 14 outs and maybe as many as 17 (9 , 3 8's, 2 5's and 3 7's).
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skiing7654
This is my first post ever (so be nice, lol)

Eldiesel:
If we believe what the BB said, he had a gutshot straight draw to the 7 as well.

Ace High:
I think Eldiesel is still kind of right though because you hitting the 5 on the turn gave you another potential 5 outs to win. So still probably a good fold by the BB and good call by you assuming that if the river is 5, 7, 8 or club you stack off. If V are tight and you can't fully double up, little point in calling.
I only need about 22% equity to call with no implied odds and I think we agree that I have 28% or more, so I can call unless we think one of opponents has a flush draw.

That was the point/question of this post for me. How likely is it that my club outs are good?

I was torn on this hand because I wanted to keep the bad players in the hand in case I made my gutshot and I was afraid of getting it all in 3 ways, versus a better flush draw and a made hand. I'm thinking the posters that advocated playing the draw aggressively on the flop are correct, especially at 1/2. The BB was never going to get it all in with just a flush draw, not even the nut flush draw and I think a lot of live players think like that.
How good is my flush draw? Quote
12-17-2013 , 10:42 PM
Didn't notice BB had the gutshot too.

The thing is, if you're calculating IO, you can't include the outs we have that get us the lead but don't get us paid off. If an 8 hits otr, the board has a 5689 on it, and all of a sudden we're leading when on every other street we c/c'd. Are we getting paid off here. At 1/2, actually yeah most of the time. But not every time.

I don't think the V can give us credit for trip 5's if that hits otr.

I wouldn't include the 7, you'll get into trouble adding outs that improve us but don't necessarily give us the lead. Also, if the 7 hits, the board is 5679K (not in that order I know). But it's tough to shove 2pair otr on that board, even tougher to get thin value out of it, I don't see Kx calling unless he's really awful.

So to be conservative, when calculating direct odds, only include what definitely gets us the lead, not just an improvement. And when calculating IO, the board can't become so connected when we hit our card that we don't get paid off.

But for this hand, I had it so that you needed 21.xx % equity including the IO of your last $85 to make the call ott. And with the clubs and trips outs it was something very close to 22, so you did have it this time. Just things to consider for the future.
How good is my flush draw? Quote

      
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