I have recently moved up to playing $5-$10NL hold'em from my daily grind of $2-%NL and wanted some feedback on how many hours/sessions you need to log before you can derive a statistically significant hourly rate.

I currently have 50 sessions and about 300 hours is that enough to derive my true hourly rate? I have been playing as a main source of income for a while now and I am trying to determine if I have data to say my hourly rate is significant enough to play primarily at the new level.

Thanks,

Chris

yes

Well..

no

How many hands/hr are you playing? How many total hands have you played? It's probably better to look at your bb/100. This assumes you are multi-tabling online.

If this is live no, you do not have enough information.

Live play; 1000 hands per hour

Bottom line, these threads never help much on 2p2 because no matter what sample size you list, you will be told that it isn't enough. You could have posted that you'd played 2000 sessions, and you'd have ten responses telling you to wait until you had 4000. There will be people on this forum 45 years from now fighting their last few months through brain cancer still saying that they're waiting for their long term results to equal their expectations

Boy, good thing we put the effort in to create a Live Forum that is titled as such

This is my hourly rate for live NL poker @ Venetian/Wynn/Bellagio etc.

I know my BB/100 hands online but your hourly rate for live play is easier to calculate bc you dont readily know how many hands you have played other than by ~ (# Hours Played * est # Hands per hour)

I have approximately 14,000 hands played at the new level. I have heard that 10,000 hands is statistically significant and I am trying to confirm if I have enough data to extrapolate a true rate.

Chris

I would think that 14k hands is more than enough to tell you how you're capable of performing at this level

More than enough.

A while back I read that after 100,000 hands of play you can narrow your self to about a 2ptbb/100 range of your true winrate.

Standard live play is 30 hands/h. So that means if you played a little over 3,000 hours of live poker your winrate will have a margin of error at $10/20 of slightly over $13/h.

So the answer is not even close.

I love this forum.

a. wrong to equate online avg. vs live avg.....$2.95
b. wrong assumption at online to begin with........$3.50
c. margin of error of only $13 after 1.5 yrs of full time play at 10/20 NL .................................PRICELESS........ ......................................

i don't understand why there always has to be like ONE NUMBER where all of a sudden you can start looking at your stats. people, think. the more hands you put in, the lower the effect of variance on average on your results, so the closer your results are to your true long-term profitability in that game given unchanged conditions. it's a continuous thing. 1000 hours is a slightly better sample size than 900 hours.

it's not like you play your 1000th hour and all of a sudden it becomes relevant. look at your results. look at the impact of some of your big hands where you stacked off deep. think about how often that has happened. look at how much your winnings and losses fluctuate. and then try to decide based on that how many hours you'll need to bring the effect of those types of things to a low enough point that you're happy with the reliability of your results.

I direct the OP to the

1. FAQs
2. Winrate thread.

I'm locking this troll magnet. The real answer OP is that you'll never know what your true winrate is unless you choose to stop improving your game and all your opponents agree to do the same thing.