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Horrible card on the turn!! Horrible card on the turn!!

09-25-2015 , 08:39 PM
1/3: 3 am. Getting to see flops is everyone goal at this point. Good luck getting HU or 3-way

Hero (1600): 20's white guy. Major spew earlier (Confirmed by 2+2) and therefore my image as a TAG is destroyed. I can't narrow down the field, my 25-30 pre raises either fold everyone out or go 3-4way+. I've made a few hero calls, where the opponent was screaming I have you beat, but the necessary holdings to make the 5-card hand were so ridiculous I was convinced it had to be a bluff: 3 gapper gut shots and such. Also I hero called with K high on a double paired board heads up to be good. This is the weirdest table image I've ever had, pretty sure my opponents think I'm full of it every time.

V (600): Caught my major spew. Really weird hand, I posted already in the forum. 60's black guy, took the bad beat I gave him amazingly well, although seems to love getting into pots with me after that hand. He hasn't played back at me yet, just been passive. He can't let go of two pair even on a flush/straight board, never raises more than min, usually very passive.

Hero: KK UTG

V is in LP

Table is 7 handed:

Hero raises to 25, only V calls.

Flop (50): QJ10
Hero bets 35, V calls.......I have no idea what to make of this board... His range is insanely wide at this point.
His pre flop call range is anything as good as QQ. AA, KK get repopped not QQ
His pre flop call range is as bad as any PP, A9o+, A2s+, K7s+, SC, SC1G, any two broadway, maybe K-10
I actually filtered out some of the bottom of the suited range, just because its heads up.

Turn (120): K Great... a set
Hero 65, V calls. Is betting here a mistake? I bet because I now have a poo-load of outs if I'm beat. Obviously I could easily have an Ace as well.

River (250): X
Hero?
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 08:45 PM
When our Villain calls a half pot turn bet with this board, methinks we need to "pair the board".

With two flush draws out there, he probably would have bombed with an A in his hand.

He will likely check down anything less than a straight because we "could have anything".

We can safely check the river and fold to any reasonable bet IMHO.
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 09:01 PM
Pretty easy bet/fold. Not sure what was so horrible about this. This is the greatest v in the world to be in this spot against.

Also, you easily being able to have an Ace isn't the reason you should be betting the turn lol
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 09:21 PM
Hate to agree with above poster, but I´d bet/fold $80.
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 10:31 PM
check turn
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 10:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa
Pretty easy bet/fold. Not sure what was so horrible about this. This is the greatest v in the world to be in this spot against.

Also, you easily being able to have an Ace isn't the reason you should be betting the turn lol
Why's that?
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 10:58 PM
Nevermind Bird.. figured it out.
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 11:07 PM
I like the turn bet for exactly the reasons you stated, plus if you just caught the straight you would bet to make the flush draw pay.

I think the river is a check. I don't think your passive villian is going to bluff. A bet means an A.
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 11:09 PM
As played is fine. I'd betfold for $35 or something stupid. It's balanced in this kind of texture. Two pair is unlikely to call big and his range has significant number of 9x. Gives this marine animal an amazing pot odd to bluff catch w q8.
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 11:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BukNaked36
I like the turn bet for exactly the reasons you stated, plus if you just caught the straight you would bet to make the flush draw pay.

I think the river is a check. I don't think your passive villian is going to bluff. A bet means an A.
Well, I thought about what Bird said for a second and realize that repping the A isn't beneficial... I beat every single hand other than that A and 9 of course.
Still could go either way on the turn, but his range is still so insanely open at this point that I feel like I have to bet.
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 11:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BukNaked36
I like the turn bet for exactly the reasons you stated, plus if you just caught the straight you would bet to make the flush draw pay.

I think the river is a check. I don't think your passive villian is going to bluff. A bet means an A.
The point of betting isn't to stop him from bluffing. It's to get value. Passive Vs like this will usually raise the turn with an Ace, which is the nuts, even if it's only a min raise, because they have to protect against the flush draw (A flush draw having the odds to call a minraise is beside the point. this is how they think.).

The real question is whether there's enough hands that we beat for this to be a value bet. I'll run some combos, but my guess right now is actually going to be that there is not even with him never having an Ace, and I'll have to recant my original bet/fold and turn it to a check/fold. That is of course assuming V isn't dumb enough to do something like "Same bet" with two pair or a lower set here, in which case you may have to bet/fold to prevent that disaster.

Last edited by BirdsallSa; 09-25-2015 at 11:34 PM.
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 11:33 PM
Okay so after running some combos, it's gotta be a check fold. Even if we assume he will always raise the turn with an Ace, unless he has Acxc for a flush redraw we don't have over 50% equity against his calling/raising range. Given the generous range of:

{99-QQ, Ac2c-AcTc, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 96s+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o}

You have 46.4% equity. Given the low likelihood of him turning his two pairs, sets or weird one pair hands into a bluff, it's a clear check/fold. I knew I was wrong once Kookiemonster agreed with me.
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heliumXD
As played is fine. I'd betfold for $35 or something stupid. It's balanced in this kind of texture. Two pair is unlikely to call big and his range has significant number of 9x. Gives this marine animal an amazing pot odd to bluff catch w q8.
How on Earth is that balanced? You'd bet 35/ bet 65/ bet 35 with AA on this board runout?
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa
Okay so after running some combos, it's gotta be a check fold. Even if we assume he will always raise the turn with an Ace, unless he has Acxc for a flush redraw we don't have over 50% equity against his calling/raising range. Given the generous range of:

{99-QQ, Ac2c-AcTc, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 96s+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o}

You have 46.4% equity. Given the low likelihood of him turning his two pairs, sets or weird one pair hands into a bluff, it's a clear check/fold. I knew I was wrong once Kookiemonster agreed with me.
Anyway, I check folded. He bet 200.
If he had bet 100, I would have considered it
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-25-2015 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dopedupwalrus
Anyway, I check folded. He bet 200.
If he had bet 100, I would have considered it
Even for 100 it's a fold. Also, check/call turn.
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote
09-26-2015 , 01:40 PM
Overbet OTF. Solves a lot of problems.

c/c OTT
Horrible card on the turn!! Quote

      
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