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Holding a straight, facing a lead out when the river pairs, help!! Holding a straight, facing a lead out when the river pairs, help!!

07-30-2012 , 09:02 AM
I think I know the answer to this problem, but I would like some insight into how to arrive at the correct decision. Here goes ;

The game is a loose 2/2 game at the Hague. I am UTG + 2, I have to post dead blinds because I have just returned from a break. The players involved in the hand are mostly passive fish. Although the bb has demonstrated a degree of positional awareness and seem to open raise a lot from late position. There are 4 other limpers plus the blinds, making the pot 14€. I have 6d7s.

The flop brings 6h8h9c. The bb bets €20, I call, co calls, pot is now €74.

The turn is the 10c. The bb now checks, I bet €50, both co and bb call, the pot is now €224. The river is the 10d, the bb now leads out for €120 ( he has about another 120 behind). The btn who is also yet to act only has about 50€ and I can't see him folding. Hero???
Holding a straight, facing a lead out when the river pairs, help!! Quote
07-30-2012 , 09:37 AM
I don't like it but I would call. You're getting 3-1, and he could have a T, a busted flush or the same straight. Sometimes. Most likely a house obviously but not more than 75% of the time..
Holding a straight, facing a lead out when the river pairs, help!! Quote
07-30-2012 , 10:36 AM
Preflop: Since this is a strat forum I don't mind being a blinds posting nit and say waiting 2 more hands is the +ev thing to do. Notice how posting not only put 2€ at risk but put a big chunk of your stack at risk in a bad situation (oop with weak hand)

Reasons to fold on the flop:
1. If he has 9x he doesn't figure to pay us off when we hit 2 pair or a str8 since there will be a 4str8 on board
2. If he has 2 pair he doesn't figure to pay us off when we hit a str8 for the same reason
3. We could easily be drawing to a chop since there are 12 combos of T7 and 12 combos of 75 in his range
3. We only have 6 clean outs with the fd on board
4. The bet is unusually large which gives us worse than usual odds to draw
5. We're not closing the action so we could get raised

Given you called good bet ott

River:
1. We're calling for a chop so we're really only getting ~1.45:1
2. Btn/Co could have us beat so a small part of the time we're calling to chop the extra 70€ (a small consideration)

Board: 6h 8h 9c Tc Td

Hand 0: 32.258% { 7s6d }
Hand 1: 67.742% { TT-88, 66, A9s, T9s, T9o, T7o, 75o }

Notes on range:
1. I put A9s in there to represent his bluffs with missed hearts and 9x, both of which are very unlikely to take this line but people do weird stuff
2. I didn't put 75s or T7s in his range b/c often enough he bets this turn with his flopped straights

Based on the range above there are 32 combos in his range
We scoop against 3
We split against 14
We get scooped against 15

The 3 times we scoop we win 364
The 14 times we split we win 132
The 15 times we get scooped we lose 120

3*364+14*132-15*120 = +1140

1140/32 = +35.63€ per call (ignoring the guy behind us)

If we assume he never bluffs here and rarely checks a flopped str8 ott then this becomes a fold
Holding a straight, facing a lead out when the river pairs, help!! Quote
07-30-2012 , 01:42 PM
Great analysis, thanks Rusty!
Holding a straight, facing a lead out when the river pairs, help!! Quote
07-30-2012 , 01:43 PM
Turns out he had 10 8 for the full house
Holding a straight, facing a lead out when the river pairs, help!! Quote

      
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