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Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold?

05-25-2023 , 01:18 AM
Hero (1400): LAG image
V1 (450): Bad player.
V2 (1800): Somewhat an erratic player. I saw him call all in after a check raise on the turn with AK in a board Jh5h2h9c and he had no hearts. Ive been playing for him for about 4 hours. He is not running good

Dealer announces 3 last hands to close private game. This is the second one

OTH
Blinds 5-5

4 handed
v2 straddles to 15 on the button. I call on BB with 9d8d, V1 calls, v2 checks

Flop(50) 6h2h5d

Hero takes a stab at the pot and bets out 35. V1 call v2 call

Turn(155): 2d
Hero bets 105, V1 calls, v2 call

River (470): 7c
Hero bets 305, v1 call, V2 goes all in for 1100 effective to me

Against most players it is a snap fold, but this is an erratic player. Did he slow played 2 pair or a set on the flop? Is there a way for him to move in on me with a middle straight?
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 01:39 AM
Not sure about the "against most players its a snap fold."

When we hit a gutter to nut straight on a card that bricks off two different flush draws......."snapping" any decision is not good. We may fold, but we definitely want to go into tank about it. There's only 10 combos of sets/quads that are now quads/full house. And unless people are limping with 62 and 72, 52s is the only 2p that filled up.

Also, to snap fold this, we'd need to know that V's never do this with 43 (if they can have 72, 62, 52.....they absolutely have 43). And we also need to know they won't bluff with missed draws. As well as know they won't do this with A2 or K2.


As far as this specific situation, if your read/description is accurate, I don't think we can lay down nut straight.


My folding range here would be things like 65, some 2's, and PP's like 88/99.

I'm calling with all houses, nut straight, likely 43 straight......A2s would be a tank....probably a fold.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 02:04 AM
Most players would just call in the river with a straight or a deuce. But there are 2 things going here:
- V2 is stuck
- Its the second last hand of the night

That dynamic is leaning me towards a call. He might be erratic but he is not a crazy guy that would bluff the river there when there is a big bet and a call. Im thinking if he would jam me there with 2x or a lower straight. Not really sure

Going for the live tell:

I start tanking for a good while and say to villain: "I was bluffing and got the nut straight on the river, why didnt you raise me with 2 pair or a set in the flop?"
V2: "I might slow play it right?"
Hero: "Why didnt you raise with a pocket pair on your straddle?"
V2: "Take all the time you want to think your decision"


A couple of hour ago he made a big bet on the river of 400 and he told me: "Save your money kid. I got it" and when I folded he showed me he had a set. He bet OOP 3 streets against me in that hand and I folded top pair

He is about a 50 year old white male
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 04:33 AM
would be more interested in the first hand where he called off AK high on J952 without a draw???

no way I am ever folding here.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 06:04 AM
Without v1 in the mix I'd call, but he's basically ai so v2 has no incentive to bluff. We only possibly beat 84 for value, but that looks way too thin to shove, and he has a million boat combos, so it's not close imo.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 09:31 AM
Holy turn spew

What was your thought process on the turn?
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 09:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crackedaa
Without v1 in the mix I'd call, but he's basically ai so v2 has no incentive to bluff. We only possibly beat 84 for value, but that looks way too thin to shove, and he has a million boat combos, so it's not close imo.
Do you guys play live poker? V2 is a fish. V2 is stuck. It is the 2nd to last hand of the night. Given this read, how are you folding here? And his pocket pairs can presumably be discounted here by him not raising the button straddle. It's very likely he has 34 or a single deuce and he's hoping you're calling with 2 pair. Or maybe he's just tilt shoving because it's the end of the night and some people seem to prefer to go home broke.

Last edited by cardsharkk04; 05-25-2023 at 09:46 AM.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 12:28 PM
Calling w/ AK is not the same as shoving $1,100 on a paired board into two players. We could also be behind the other V just salivating for this to happen. I sigh fold.

Edit: just read background post -- definitely folding.

Last edited by Javanewt; 05-25-2023 at 12:33 PM.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 02:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cardsharkk04
Do you guys play live poker? V2 is a fish. V2 is stuck. It is the 2nd to last hand of the night. Given this read, how are you folding here? And his pocket pairs can presumably be discounted here by him not raising the button straddle. It's very likely he has 34 or a single deuce and he's hoping you're calling with 2 pair. Or maybe he's just tilt shoving because it's the end of the night and some people seem to prefer to go home broke.
I think you're right and I was wrong although I'm still far less optimistic about the spot than you. I imagine most people have 100% of the boats here except for raising some otf and he has to be really horrible in a particular way to own himself here. I still don't ever see a bluff even given that AK hand history, only the biggest whales would bluff here. But the price is too good to fold.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 04:00 PM
Slight correction. V1 that called my bet on the river had 900 to start the hand. So when he called the last bet he had about 440 more to call the shove of V2. He is still pot committed and I dont think V2 is bluffing there. But the only full house he can have are 52, 62 or maybe 72
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 04:09 PM
raise pre (esp for lagz)

I don't like the flop lead and definitely don't like the turn bet. It's just throwing money away tbh.

The only other time we saw him bet otr like this he had a set?

It could be a bluff, but would he bluff with 3 people interested in the hand when either one of you might have a duece? We'll never know unless we're willing to gamble and call and hope and pray it was just a bluff. If it's a chop, would he even do this? .

I would just fold. If he decided to pull of a bluff on the next to last hand (when the add'l money people have to put in to call is 795 more into 1080) so someone could easily call with a 2 or even an OP.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 04:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by luz4ggro
Slight correction. V1 that called my bet on the river had 900 to start the hand. So when he called the last bet he had about 440 more to call the shove of V2. He is still pot committed and I dont think V2 is bluffing there. But the only full house he can have are 52, 62 or maybe 72
Why exactly do you think he couldn't have a pocket pair for a full house? Some people like to slowplay. Or he could have 77 and it wasn't even a slowplay.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-25-2023 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
Why exactly do you think he couldn't have a pocket pair for a full house? Some people like to slowplay. Or he could have 77 and it wasn't even a slowplay.
He is a guy that is stuck and is in the last hand of the night. I think he will raise 100% of his pocket pairs if he is straddling on the button and got 2 limpers. He is not a good player, so we never now what is going on through his head. But he is definitely not bluffing the river
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-26-2023 , 01:39 AM
Well this Is how the hand ended:
Spoiler:

Hero calls, V2 shows 62 and takes down the pot
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-26-2023 , 01:49 AM
Just a cooler. If he has 62.....then he has 43 in his range as well.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-26-2023 , 06:08 AM
All V2 did was check his option so he can have all the deuces full.

That said on a wet board that doesn’t hit you at all I would expect him to raise flopped two pair (yes I’ve seen results). The only hand that really makes sense is 72. Lots of stuff bricked, he’s stuck, and the game is about to break. Easy call.

If it’s the first hour of a new game and no one has rebought then we can discuss folding.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-26-2023 , 08:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yogurt Daddy
Just a cooler. If he has 62.....then he has 43 in his range as well.
But does he shove 43? And wouldn't he put more money in on flop/turn?

Given everything OP wrote, this is an easy fold for me.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-26-2023 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
But does he shove 43? And wouldn't he put more money in on flop/turn?

Given everything OP wrote, this is an easy fold for me.
I have to seriously question if you’ve ever played in games that have a set end time, and what usually goes on in the last half hour of play

At least In the games I play, this is never a fold
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-26-2023 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cardsharkk04
I have to seriously question if you’ve ever played in games that have a set end time, and what usually goes on in the last half hour of play

At least In the games I play, this is never a fold
So, you do this? Games about to end, I'm all in for $1,800 as a bluff vs. two players? I don't. Maybe some players do, but we have no reason to think this guy will.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-26-2023 , 12:44 PM
No, but the dynamic is much much different at 3:45am when the room closes at 4am than your normal game. Fwiw I think this could easily be a worse hand for value
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-26-2023 , 12:48 PM
For a $1K gamble I would much rather prefer to bet it on red or black than betting that the guy was bluffing into 2 ppl otherwise it's just a guess, a hope, an a prayer.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-27-2023 , 01:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
But does he shove 43? And wouldn't he put more money in on flop/turn?

Given everything OP wrote, this is an easy fold for me.

You guys are making extremely huge deviations based on hunches and maybes.

If you have any info to say that he wouldn't shove with 43....sure, you can think about folding.



But folding nut straight here is monsters under the bed. And I promise it's hurting your win rate if you fold these types of hands without some pretty solid info. Just like all your leads on flop and turns on weird boards are definitely hurting your winrate.

We don't get to win every hand and have the nuts every hand. If you do, you're winning the minimum long term. Winrates in the 7-10bb/hr in soft LLSNL are the minimum. If you want to win more and move up, you have to make uncomfortable calls.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-27-2023 , 03:12 AM
v2 is jamming into a dry side pot right?
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-27-2023 , 11:29 AM
Why are people discussing possibility of V2 bluffing? I think it’s pretty clear he isn’t bluffing here given that V1 is essentially all-in.

The question in my opinion is whether V2 can have worse value not whether V2 is bluffing.

I would call given that V2 just checked option in the straddle and he can have all combos of 43 in his range, plus Id expect him to usually raise two pair and sets on the flop.

It’s not a snap call on the end but I wouldn’t take more than 30 seconds to put my chips in.
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote
05-27-2023 , 01:39 PM
Hard to bluff here three ways even with the given dynamics. I would fold this spot. Even bad players understand they have to be careful three ways with a straight on a paired board.

Now u hopefully know to just open raise this hand instead of limping and allowing all trashy hands to come in and make a boat
Hit my gutshot on the river and villain goes all in. Easy fold? Quote

      
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