it is extremely unlikely you are actually employing a mixed strategy with the precise percentages 80% raise and 20% call unless you are using some objective independent randomizer like hands on a watch. people are generally very bad at estimating the percentages in situations like this, and it also may be the case that in this particular situation, you are actually using 100% call, and in others 100% raise - these are very different things.

putting aside the accuracy of your estimate, the reasoning you use to devise this strategy is dubious. your claim seems to be that flatting strong hands like AK strengthens your flatting range and allows you to play some hands profitably that you otherwise wouldnt have been able to. while this is true (to a degree, and also keep in mind you are adding 3.2 combos of AK so the effect is lessened), it ignores the fact that you are passing up the opportunity to put more money into the pot preflop, which you will expect to capture a high percentage of with AK while deep stacked and in position. do you also flat AA here some % of the time? how did you arrive at 20% as the best amount to flat here?

finally, even if we agreed that it is important to have AK in your flatting range, in this specific hand you were dealt AKs. AKs, when 400bb deep, is much more valuable than AKo, and you should not underestimate its ability to flop dominating/nutty draws. essentially, you were dealt like the nut in-position+400bb deep hand, and you should try to put more money in the pot. if you really believe he isnt peeling a flop with a hand worse than AKs, you should probably just be 3betting him like 95%.

That's fair, but my estimate is based on a "straight forward ABC type player." He should be on the lower end of the bluff spectrum no matter what the situation. Either way, these spots are fun to dissect.

You're right about being unable to do 80% exactly, but it's a good mark to aim for. Personally, I think 75% (3/4) is obviously a mark that would be easier to track but I've read multiple places (Gus/Harrington/Miller) that an 80% is ideal because it keeps opponents guessing. Harrington advocated doing 80% based on hands on a watch but point blank I'm not going to look at my watch constantly so you're right that it's not going to be perfect. Getting close is good enough.


Yes I would flat here with AA some of the time.

But you're probably correct that 3! is better with AKs.

I'm just explaining what I did, and my reasoning, not trying to defend it.

I could have just avoided difficult post-flop decisions by taking initiative, in position, with a great hand. But I didn't.

Absolutely. I appreciate you taking the time to do through the range analysis! Obviously I was unable to do a complete range analysis at the table, though I did feel there were about as many bluffs/chops in his range as value hands, which turns out to be correct (kinda sorta).

80% is arbitrary and "keeping opponents guessing" is a ridiculous reason to do anything.


you should not.

i'm not trying to attack it either, i am just explaining which parts of your reasoning i disagree with.

avoiding difficult decisions was not why i thought raising was best, and initiative is basically not a real thing (obviously as a descriptor of the last aggressor, it is a real thing, but it is not a concept that holds merit when analyzing decisions).

I certainly think initiative is a thing. It may be one of the most important things. It is so much easier to get an opponent to fold postflop when you're the preflop aggressor than when they are the aggressor, even with same hands/same position.

I also disagree that you should never flat with AA against a single opponent who is likely to fold to a 3! but whom plays predictably postflop. If you're EVER calling with ANY hand you should sometimes be calling with strong hands, just to preserve a decent calling range. Otherwise you're just playing your calling hands faceup.

So I agree that 3! here is better but I guess we have to agree to disagree about the reasoning behind it.

initiative is just an inaccurate/incorrect way to refer to a number of other concepts. this is kind of a tangent though.

if you are suggesting making an exploitative adjustment to flat AA based on his overfolding to 3bets and poor play in single raised pots, then fine, but that is different from having a mixed strategy as a standard.

putting aside whether i think you should ever flat with strong hands, you are taking this concept way too far. "preserving a decent calling range" or avoiding "playing your calling hands faceup" are not goals you should have in and of themselves. it is perfectly fine to play a weak, capped range in some spots simply because raising your strong hands is too valuable and there are some remaining hands you can call profitably.

okay. the reasoning is kind of the important part though.

Putting aside the no 3bet which is fine for the reasons you said, I re-raise flop to 60 and take it down or find out where I am.

As played to turn, with bet-sizing tell I bump 30 to 100 and take it down or find out where I am.

As played to river, I consider that repop someone mentioned earlier. Call is blech, but does it hold 50%? Probably.

I've gotten a lot of feedback so I'll spoil the results. I call, V turbomucks, racks his chips, and leaves. As played, I think I won more chips than if I had raised at some point, because my opponent likely would have just folded. Although that could be results-oriented thinking.

After thinking and considering all opinions, I think the place to raise was the turn. OTF I don't think the raise would have had the desired result. If he was flushing he probably would have called. He also could have interpreted my raise as me flushing and fought back.

A substantial raise to say 130 on the turn would have folded out most of his range, including weak queens and lower PP. It also wouldn't have left him with odds to chase a draw. So I think that was optimal.

Thanks for the all input! Really appreciated.

The spot to raise here is either on the flop or the turn. You can actually gain value against draws while getting better hands to fold. Waiting until the river folds mostly what you already beat.