+1

Honestly I'd have to play w/you to get a better grasp of what you're repping because my biggest question would be are you capable of bluffing w/Tx to not chop since that hand makes a lot of sense. So something like KT, JT could be put into your range. If I don't think that is in your range it really looks like busted draws, or at least a straight.

You would be surprised how often the average villain really raise's A10 otb. Pretty rare, since most people limp AJ pre.

Heroes range more like J9s J8s J7s 87s 54s 76o
maybe A7s or A7o (both should raise turn)
and even less likely 1010, 77, 66 and A10 (raise preflop or/and raise turn)

But Hero is on the button not the average villain and if it was villain then even more so A10 because he is aggro

We are just making assumptions. But I doubt hero is raising A10o preflop.

i would raise a/10 alot pre but me and v have only this session for history and i dont think he can eliminate a hand like that from my range.

also. would like to hear more opinions on what villains calling range likely is....also what villians calling range should be

When he views your bet as a value bet: He's calling with all boats and maybe 89

When he views your bet as a busted draw: He's calling with any pair (since you'd likely just call w/ with the A of diamonds). He should be careful w/ pairs < 7s since you could be turning the 7d into a bluff

Personally, your line looks like 76 or air. And given timing of your flop call your line looks more drawy. You'd probably consider your options longer w/ 76. I'm calling here w/ any pair bigger than 7s, or 7 w/ good kicker. W/ 7d in my hand any kicker would do

Since villain is not a great hand reader and has made bigger lay downs, he may see a big raise on this board as a straight or full house and fold anything less.

It is hard to say what range he should call with because that is dependent on your read of his hand. What did you think his range was? How often do you think he bet/folds river? How often are you bluffing vs value raising in this spot?

That being said, your line seems more like a bluff than for value.

How many times in live cash have y'all (at these stakes)
A) seen people call off with one pair type hands in spots like this
B) seen people run 200bb bluffs otr with air?
I don't see bluffs like this often. I would say most are heavily weighted towards value

A) No one is calling with 1 pair here, but it's pretty unlikely the villain took this line with 1 pair.

B) I agree that I don't see many big river bluffs, but your line makes almost no sense for value. You either have 76 or a bluff. If I knew you were capable of a big bluff, this is the spot I would pick to look you up with any reasonable hand.

+1

i think this is the best post so far

So u had A6 then and tried to steal on the flop and had the perfect turn and river

Ace rag diamonds gettin fancy. probably get a small flush to fold a good amount, or lose to a stubborn guy who hates folding flushes

no but think he evaluated the situation best

[ ] Duke's analysis is best
[x] Duke's analysis is good
[x] Duke's analysis gives credence to OP's line

I think it is time for results

OP... nice post.

Since some very good posts have already been written, I'll take the opportunity to comment on metagame here.

Given Hero's image from the two hands described here, Villain should call your shove with [TT+, 77, 66, AT, AK]. Hero has already shown that he is willing to stack off with very vulnerable made hands, and now that Hero is down two buyins, Villain should look to widen his calling range to the topish 2p hands +.

Hero's range will depend more on Hero's philosophy when down 2 buyins. If Hero is the type who will play more aggressive with third (and last?) buyin, then Hero's range can be lots of draws. However, if Hero likes money, and thinks that the table noticed that Hero is having a tough night, then Hero should be tighter here and should have a boat > 90%.

The fairly small 2B by Hero on the flop (pot sized bet), into 2 opponents, does not indicate much strength to me. 2P is probably most likely, but given Hero's description, lots of draws here too.

After the smallish 2B, then Hero jams turn, I think villain should be calling down pretty light.

Some results would be interesting.

results: i had k hi busted diamonds, villain thought for a 10-20 seconds and folded
When he led turn I thought a few seconds about raising and thought
A) based on his history of folding in close spots and his table talk he wouldnt really consider making a big call otr if i missed
B) Stacks are such that he will have a hard time bet/calling otr
C) I actually thought that 6 was one of the better rivers to shove on, cuz he can never really have 6x
Im surprised that so many people were right saying "LDO busted diamonds such a big part of range"
However there was one post saying something like "yea he can have busted diamonds but i would need a pretty strong read that to call with out a boat here"
Lastly there's only so many people that can bet/call this much on a board where its *possible im on the missed draw but i can still rep enough hands to not look completely fos
just thought it was an interesting spot! thx!

neither do you.

once you flat the turn you rarely have the hands you are trying to rep. you have a missed draw far more often.

This fold is all about money. If Villain has a big bankroll, lots of money or is a good player he will call u here.

It would be interesting to know Villains hand here but obviously he didn`t show?

Given results, I'm guessing villain may have had A9dd or A8dd. River was a blocking bet.

I think this thread illustrated how important profiling Villain's postflop tendencies is. The OP's line is probably not the best against a random. But to a villain that is good enough to realize all the possible hands that beat him but not how likely they are based on hero's line, then this big bet on the end is scary. And if this Villain has shown he can make a big laydown, then it turns into a successful bluff.

Or maybe V just had a smaller busted flush and hero bluffed with the best hand.

I kinda think v had axdd