Hero tag 500$

V just sat down 50's 275$

OTTH

folds to V in cutoff who limps 2$
Hero BTN makes it 10$ with Qd9d

folds to V who calls

flop Qs2c9s

V checks
H bets 15$
V calls
turn 7d (53$)

V checks

H bets 50$

V raise to 100$

V has 150$ behind

hero?

Brutal spot. Everyone will say to get it in. I saw this happen twice yesterday and anytime I have chosen to get it in on sucha disconnected board with top two Where I was raised, vs all but people you term as action players at 1/2 and 1/3 you are drawing to 4 outs. Always. Can someone make this play with Q7 suited, air, or AQ? Sure. But I have yet to see it from someone I did not expect to see it from. At higher stakes and vs better players it is an easy get it in spot. Vs the typical weak passive fish and OMCs at 1/2 the only hands you beat are KK and AA. Which have 10 outs to catch up.

Noob perspective:

You want V's turn raise to be a semi-bluff on a fairly drawy board, but a min-click suggests anything but.

If you call, it's almost guaranteed V jams the river anyway, unless he's on a draw and misses, so you're pretty much in jam or fold territory I feel.

And I have a hard time seeing V take this line on a draw. If he's a competent player, he also shouldn't be limping AQ.

This line screams 22, but I don't know if I'd have the discipline to get away from it getting 4:1 on a call.

Who says he is a competent player?
He’s a dude in his 50’s at 1/2$ who opened limped cutoff, 99% chance he’s a fish.

Im not saying im super excited about the min raise but we cant assume the guy is an omc either without further info.

Your hand is too strong to fold op rip it in.

Easy shove, Villain probably has a value hand, but since he’s a fish he could be doing this with a bunch of worse hands.

Why shove? Because: Since we’re going broke with this hand regardless, shoving now is better than just calling (and then calling the River) is that shoving guarantees the Villain will call off with the hands you’re beating, while if you just call, the River might bail him out and prevent him from shoving with his worse hands. (For example: if he has 97 now, he’ll call your Turn shove, but if just call and the River is a Q he will check-fold.) Same deal if he’s on any of his semi-draws: get the money in now when he has to call off, don’t let him check the River.)

If you’re beat, just spike a 4-outer on the River, easy game.

You've got top 2. There's no possible straights. There's no possible flushes. Villain is unknown. There's $200 in the pot with $150 behind. Why wouldn't we shove?

I've seen villains make this c/r with as low as QJ. A7s/A2s is in some villain's range.

We can't consider folding because we're scared of a set?

Sneaky gross spot but I rip it in here and don’t lose any sleep if he has a set. You beat all other two pair combos and you don’t know him well enough to consider folding.

He could turn AA over, we really have no idea. But I’m never folding and GII and take a note.

Get the money in.

If he has you beat God bless him.

All-in, not gross.

EZ jam, no question.

I went all in, he had 77. Didn’t hit the four outer and it felt pretty gross.

You lost and that felt gross. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it was a gross spot. At these stacksizes against an unknown limper it's more of a "shrug" moment.

I'm always surprised when people only look at the value betting side of exploitable live low stakes.


We need to be making exploitable folds as well.


This is a spot we can actually gain a ton of +EV folding at the *right* times.


The only info we have is he limp called from EP. Which would put him in the loose/passive category if we have to assign one. Aggression from loose passives is always a red flag.


Let's break down what hands are realistically interested:

Qs2c9s7d

Top Pairs: AQ, KQ, QJ, QT.....etc etc. We block every Q hand. Combine that with fact that loose passives like to call unless super strong and we can pretty well say he likely doesn't have top pair.

Two Pairs: We block all *realistic* two pair holdings except 97. There's only 9 combos of 97 left.

Sets: we only block top set at this point and its only one combo. He likely wouldn't have flatted pre, but if so, its still only one combo left


So, what's he getting aggressive with???


AQ? likely not

Se, we are left with flush draws turned into semi bluffs with one card to go. Q7 we block, and 97 we don't block. The rest is sets.


So, we are going to shove against likely a loose passive who is being aggressive with a flush draw or 97???



Fold, and don't show anyone what you folded. Don't make it a habit of folding Top 2. But this spot, you're likely never good.


Sure, you're gonna fold sometimes to someone getting stupid with a flush draw and sometimes 97. But you'll likely be +EV against loose passives making an exploitable hero fold here.

In before "fish can have 92 and 72."

They will for sure limp with most ATC. But they typically fold utter trash like these hands to a raise.

Same. With thousands of hours at live low stakes, I rarely see us ahead in this spot when the V is the aggressor.

When we are the one getting money in the pot first, I usually see calls from things top 2 beats. When V is getting the cash in, I rarely see anything but sets here. Sometimes on the flop a flush draw will get stupid. Rarely on turn.


Obviously shoving here is never "bad."


But exploitable poker isn't just with value bets. This is a fold we can make at live low stakes and save $200. I'd never tell anyone I folded top 2 though.

Yikes.

The fact that he called the flop bet led me to discount 77 (3rd pair? come on) and I thought 22 was much more likely.

I guess if he's taking this line with 77 he could have very plausibly done the same with 97 in which case you would have gotten it in good. Not sure he'd have min-raised though.

Hard to play optimally when opponents play so far from it. Good on him for playing "sneaky" I guess.

That’s where I’m at with it. 97 is definitely possible, but loose passives likely don’t start shoveling money in there.

Best case scenario:

9 combos of 97
6 combos of Q7

1 combo QQ
1 combo 99
3 combos of 22
3 combos of 77

Q7 would likely be suited. So, just Q7c and Q7h


Best case:

11-15 combos we are way ahead.
9 combos we are way behind

And that’s *if*, if V would raise with 97 or Q7 when he bunks turn.


IMO, it’s either zero EV between fold/shove or it’s massive -EV to shove instead of fold.

Depends if particular V is capable of raising with worse.


Which, IMO, means the fold is the better option.

As if he’s capable of raising with hands we beat he still shows up with hands we are crushed by…..on a decent frequency.

If he’s not capable of raising with worse, he never shows up with hands we beat.

If we have 15 combos way ahead vs 9 combos way behind then its an obvious jam. Your argument to fold doesnt make sense already.

That’s also assuming V never does this with a draw and is never bad enough to do this with QJ, KQ, AQ. This is a 1/2$ cutoff open limper so who knows wtf he is thinking, we’re not playing vs Phil Ivey here lol

I think AQ would be an exploitable fold. Top 2 not so much.