tough spot and definitly close. 2pairs/other sets kill some of our outs and it really seems that someone has T9. i don't think SB would get cute here with a blank FD given the flop action (even a combo draw would be pretty weird but possible) and the old guy has T9, 2p or a set like always. there are some unlikely scernarios that might make this a profitable call i guess but you should have about 28-30% equity here on average (against 2 players). plus the old guy might fold if you flat which would be even worse for your hand if the SB has T9. most turn cards suck and create an even uglier spot. with only 125 invested i fold this 300bb deep.

if you guys ever played plo you know top set is a multiway hand, and the more player are in there the better.

just stick it in and hope for the best.
i would never fold with a flushdraw on the board, since tp+fd always goes for it and we crush it. two pair goes for it and we crush it. the straight obv, but we have outs.

sooo .... push + fistpump

tp+fd is kinda unlikely i guess, especially regarding SBs range. the problem is, that if someone has T9 here we can't profitably continue and it really seems that this is the case. it's still pretty close but i don't like to commit here because A) we don't have much invested, B) we don't know what the old guy will do and C) we probably dont have sufficient equity on average (even if we do its pretty damn close and i don't like flipping for 5 grand).

your not flipping for 5 grand. your flipping (if you want to call it that way) for 1k or 2 buyins. and if you think the other guys are going with it, you have to, due to the odds.
it comes with the territory that you sometimes have to take chances.

and how weak is it, to fold top set multiway!

i mean why else would you call jacks in the first place? to flop a overpair and fold to action, to flop top set on a dry board and take it down with a cbet ?
cmon!!

i call it flipping because that's what it basically is. in this spot you have very very few value continuing the hand if at all (i doubt it tbh, but it's def close). also you don't know if it still will be multiway OTT which makes this spot pretty gross imho. i mean even if you do catch a lucky card and SB has the straight, do you really think he's going broke after 1 or 2 guys flatted his 4bet OTF? i dont think so.

ofc you play JJ for value, whether it's overpair or set value or both. but you have to reevaluate at every point of the hand. do you really think that people 3bet with worse than 2pair here? or 4bet with worse than a set? how likely is it that both of them have 2p/a set here compared to one having T9 and the other killing a good portion of your outs?

i mean just stove some reasonable ranges and think about some sucky scenarios, like old guy folding 2p while SB has T9 or old guy shoving bottom/middle set and SB calling. these situations are very realistic imho and there are a couple more of them. this spot is so so gross and stacks are super deep with hero only having 125$ invested. ofc folding is"weak" to some extent, but do we really need to give a sh*t? it's not like anyone sees our hand when we do so and exploits us or w/e. you have ~33% equity against their ranges at BEST, there is not all that much dead money plus you're not guaranteed to get a 3way all in, especially when old guy has 2p - which really sucks equity wise.

i had a similar situation about a month ago. i probably had more solid reads in that spot because a passive villain c/c a flop bet and a raise, then donked turn which completed some straight draws but we weren't even remotly 300-400 BB deep. she had the straight ofc and the other villain in the hand had top two. in typical live games it's not that hard to make a hero fold in certain spots, and i really think this is one of them.

good point that we dont get exploited because of it, but still, i think were missing out here on some great value.

i had a similar situation last month, too, board qdt9d i had trip tens, bet raise reraise, i call, org better calls, raiser shoves, reraisers shoves, i call, better calls.
i took down the whole pot against adjd, kd8d and Q9.

im not saying a fold to minimize variance is the worst thing.
im just saying we got what we hoped for, top set, and we get the equity to put it in. "and ppl are not going to a casino to fold" so dont nit up their ranges too much
thats exactly the situation why we need a good bankroll mngmt, so we dont miss out on, what i think is, a great chance to take down a huge pot!

Seems like a pretty easy fold without better reads.

WTF at bet sizing on flop, I make it $250 there for pure value. I really want to fold given the action but I just cant do it this time.

Raise and get it in on the flop, sorry you lost, try again next week.

Given that SB just cold 4bet 40% of his stack, I'm putting him on T9 and T9 only. Anyone disagree?

I doubt anyone disagree's. If so Suited and non suited connectors FTW. Even "so called" good players can't see the straight.

I call anyhow. If i know old man has T9 andi can get all 3 stacks in the pot im happy.

Not only should everyone agree but CO is going to show up with a set 99% of the time.

thats exactly what im thinking.
were money favorite multiway, so jambaramba, lets go!

Well at this point in the hand I think his range is wider. There's definitly some combodraw type stuff (TP+FD+gutter, etc) that can 3bet the flop. But due to lack of nutdraws when it looks like the money's going in 300bb deep I think his CALLING range is sets and straights.

If I can find the time I'll try to do some EV work on this in the next day or two.