It's 5 am and I've been playing for about an hour. I have a stack of 1650. I have only played a few hands and only shown down one, a set of Q's. So my image is tight. I've never played with villain before, but in the hour that I've been observing him, he's been very preflop loose, but only for calls. He probably plays about 40-50% of hands, including things like J/3 offsuit from early position, but always does so by limp calling. He has only raised a few times and when he did, it was a smallish or standard amount like 40 w/o limpers or 60 with a limper or two. Post flop he's demonstrated a lot of aggression, both on the flop and the turn, especially in 2- or 3-way pots. He appears to be a decent hand reader since he nicely picked off two bluffs by calling decent river bets with very little, but has not called anyone down with the worst hand as of yet. Villain has me way covered (4-5K).

Folds to villain in CO, who open raises to 85. This was way out of the ordinary for him and I did not know how to interpret it. There are some nits for whom a monstrous open raise w/o any limpers is almost always J/J or better, but he didn't strike me as this type of guy. He seemed tricky and perceptive enough to do this with speculative cards in late position, but I certainly thought AA through JJ made up a decent part of his range.

I have A/K of clubs in the BB and flat call. I chose not to 3-bet because of the stack sizes and villain's tendencies. Villain's range is strong and there is minimal fold equity with stack sizes. He's also a tricky player who is not going to auto fold to a flop c-bet, especially on a wet board. He felt like the type who could play back at me with very little, making my life tough on many boards.

Flop (175) is Q/8/5 all clubs. I check and he bets 110. I call. I think check raising is fine here since he is calling you with his overpairs, queens and probably any pair that also has a decent club. But I chose to call b/c he's demonstrated a lot of aggression in 2-way pots, especially in position, and I assumed that his range was still largely comprised of total air (but maybe I'm way off base...this is why I'm posting).

Turn (395) is 7(h). I check and Villain bets 275. At this point, I think his range is something like 30% total air, AA, KK, A/Q, Q/8 and sets. I chose to flat call again b/c I thought that this villain could get away from the majority of his value range, including overpairs. I have a tight image, flatted 85 from the BB, called the flop and then would be check raising the turn. He seemed perceptive enough to dump anything except for 2-pair or better and would probably only continue with sets or lower flushes. Not sure this was the right play.

River (945) is 3(c), putting the four flush out there. I think it's pretty unlikely he has the J or 10 of clubs since he's unlikely to bet the turn with J/J or 10/10. Basically, if he has it, he was probably bluffing the whole way. So I don't think he's calling much on the river. I could have put out a suck bet of 150-250 or so, but I thought I would do better by checking and letting him fire when he doesn't have a club.

All thoughts are appreciated.

I think you have to bet the river here, even just to squeeze a little value out.

From what you've said, it seems villain is somewhat of a thinking player and combined with your tight image, I think your range, in his mind, would consist entirely of rivered flushes (or flopped for that matter) as you would probably raise the flop or turn with a set. It'd depend on how you played your set last time though. While its still possible villain may fire again, I think a lot of the time he gives up.

consider flop or turn donk bet might cause him to spaz out?

I think a donk turn bet would be a massive banner shouting monster to our villain. However, I wouldn't mind a donk flop bet here. Really could bloat the pot.

if you check/call and donk turn, you'd have to make it look like a blocking bet. otherwise, that line reps a lot of strength and there's not much he can call with.

if sets make up a substantial part of his turn betting range you could checkraise right there and put him in a gross spot. A lot of players would pot-control check an overpair or AQ OTT. But maybe you are trying to induce a 3rd barrel on blank rivers - the soundness of that plan depends on villain's history and maybe you don't have enough info to decide whether or not he fires again.

villians hand is so much either air/or sets and mayber JJ with J of clubs IMO.

so dunno turn lead often to me looks like a player trying to buy a free card on the turn and I promptly raise with a wide range. c/c donk turn is often a blocking bet on a wet board like this IME from weak players IM not sure how villian views OP though. turn c/r on the other hand is pretty standard line you see from sets/flushes ... this is just in my experince though.

I think hero should play the hand though under assumption that villian has a decent amount of air in his range. c/r at any point folds out alot of hands.

wow, that is about as poorly as a flopped nuts hand could have played out for you. I think that you have to bet this river to get any more value. $175-$200 feels like a good size. Being OOP here sucks. could have c/r flop to bloat the pot a bit but I think you got more $$$$ with your c/c flop, c/c turn line than that would have yielded.

if i didn't c/r the flop (and I would most of the time) I'd c/r the turn. at some point you need to put in more action and you need the initiative before you get to the river.

as played I think you should check the river to him and let him bluff or bet with J or T of clubs. if he doesn't have a club he's not calling anyway, so give him a chance to put in some money, think for awhile and then make a raise. maybe he'll think you are bluffing and try to pick you off.

flop play is decent.
you have to check-raise the turn to get some more value. villain will call you with any set/two pair maybe even TPGK or big flush draw.
as played, check the turn letting him bluff with air. betting is almost called by nothing.

Thanks for all the responses thus far. I don't like donking the flop b/c it will fold out A/K and any other nonsense air or 1-pair holdings that he's going to c-bet with. I don't think he's spazzing out too often in response to a flop donk since he only has 85 invested and my image is tight. Also, I can check raise the flop w/o repping too much strength, so I think a check raise is superior to a donk and I'm still debating about whether a flop check raise or check call is superior. On the turn, a very small donk lead that can be interpreted as a blocking bet might work since there's more money in the pot for him to go after. It would have to be a very, very weak lead though b/c I think any sort of strong lead shuts him right down. I don't like check raising the turn at all because it folds out so much of his value range, in addition to his bluffs. In hindsight, a suck bet on the river is probably better since he's likely not firing a third barrel with a river club.

Any more thoughts/comments are much appreciated.

so if you forgo the turn c/r, what is your river plan sans club and kind of bet do you think he calls on the river? or...since maybe you were planning to let him 3-brl a blank... what do you think he bets the river with if a club doesn't come? your line -flatting big raise pf & calling 3/4 pot twice looks like you either have a strong made hand or something like TP+nut FD.
What I mean is I hope you're not forgoing a shot at getting in a pretty big c/r on the turn in exchange for cashing a small check on the river with a suckbet. often he's going to check behind on a blank unless he's super aggro and thinks you're weak tight.

Every time you didn't bet or raise was a mistake.

It seems your read changes just because he C-bet (re: the quoted lines)? How often is he open raising to 8.5 BB, C-betting, and folding to a flop raise? Just because its HU PF shouldn't change your read of his action in the CO PF. It seems like most of his range is JJ+, AQo+, AQs+, right? You say it would be "tricky and speculative" to do this with a wide range in late position, but it just sounds insanely fishy and stupid. If hes raising to 8.5 BB in late position with air like this hes a maniac, and that should inform your read. Random fish opens to 8.5 BB which is "very unusual for him" and continues to barrel flop and turn, can't we give him credit for a hand here? Why are you check/calling?

A lot of loose players who call an unreasonably wide range PF think they are calling to crack big pairs, and when they open raise to 8.5 BB it means they are trying to protect their big pair because so much of their strategy revolves around suited connectors doubling up through AA, and they are overly afraid of the reverse happening. Thats my read without being at the table, and obv. you had a better command of the situation.

Not raising the turn is criminal; a club often kills action on the river, and letting him dictate the betting on the river IP means you are checking the nuts and getting checked back a lot, regardless of what lands. I'm fine w/ c/c the flop, but you have got to c/r the turn as played. I'd need a really good read that hes super-aggressive in these situations to c/c the flop, turn and check the river. Aggressive to the point where I'm probably calling off most of my one-pair hands if he bets the river.

Is he really triple barreling his air enough that c/c the turn is worth it? Isn't a lot of his range overpairs/AQ that will call a raise on the turn but possibly check behind on the river, especially if your read is he is "loose with calls" preflop, i.e. low AF? He is loose-passive PF, but in HU turns into a triple-barreling aggressive player? It may be true it just sounds odd. We know hes not semi-bluffing, unless hes willing to take that line w/ QJo. Doesn't that read mean you should be betting/raising this hand for value? I'm lost, it seems all your reads imply hes got a strong hand that will call you down, yet you play as passively as possible.

From his POV there also aren't a lot of hands that hit a flush on this flop, given he thinks you are tight and calling a huge raise OOP. Hes not likely giving you AK/AJ of clubs a lot on this flop, and expecting you to raise AKs and QQ-AA preflop a lot. Raising the flop you rep. AQo w/ a club etc sort of hands just as much as the nut-flush. Hes shipping QQ-AA on the flop vs a raise a lot and sounds likely to call with AQ.

i like c/r the flop

agree that a c/r on the turn folds out way too much of his range given your seemingly nitty image

as played i'd just c/ship the river and pray that he either barrels the river with air or somehow levels himself into bet/calling with the Jc which is pretty unlikely.

I played with him and he may be a worse player than you think. I don't remember too many specifics but he did overplay some hands pretty badly. I would go ahead and check minraise the turn. Him stacking off too light on the turn is more likely than him 3-barreling you with air.

Chubbz, it's adam here (young, glasses, looked at one of your apartments once). I think vs a player like this it's a pretty big mistake to not try and build a pot at some point before the river. I think you are probably overthinking/being too paranoid about your nitty image vs a player that is this loose. That being said, I think that if I don't c/r the flop, I probably play the same and pray a 4th club doesn't come on the river. Now that it did, I think leading smallish is better than checking because there is a pretty good chance he checks the Jc and if he has red aces he's not going to turn them into a bluff ever. So lead small and let him call with the Jc/Tc, and give him the opportunity to spaz out and bluff shove or something.

Results: He checked behind on the river and showed the 7/2 of clubs (flopped flush also). Definitely not what I was expecting to see.

Thanks to everyone for all the thoughts. In hindsight, and as AAismyfriend suggested, I think I may have been a bit too paranoid about my nitty image, especially since I had only played an hour with this player. I would agree with the majority of comments that I should have check raised somewhere - and I think the flop is probably best since it reps a wider range. A turn check raise is likely superior to check calling since, even though he's dumping overpairs to a turn check raise quite often, he's checking behind overpairs on a ton of rivers. And I also think that sets make up a sizable portion of his range. And it's probably true that he's not firing a third barrel with air all that often.

I never understand this line that i see so often from people. OOP on the river with the nuts, if you dont value bet who will? Throw a bet out there, and make it look s weak as posssible. Checking this river is almost never correct.

When we flop the nuts our main question is, "how can we get all the money in the middle?"