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02-23-2016 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
People throw around LAG as if it is a one-size-fits-all label. Some players can be very loose or aggressive when making the first significant bet (such as the first non-limp preflop) and maybe when raising against a possible attempt to buy the potor an obviously weak feeler bet, but become much more passive when someone else shows strong interest in the pot. A player with a LAG 3bet range may have a nit 5bet range.

So, as usual in poker, it depends.
I completely agree. A LAG may or may not have a lighter 3!, 4!, or 5! range. I think in this situation, the LAG is on the btn in a steal squeeze spot, hero may have a laggy image, plus history with the player where metagame may be a factor. All this evidence, plus a good math case, makes a call better than a fold, imo.
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02-23-2016 , 11:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
Just as important here is that OP indicates that villain likely views hero as playing laggier than usual.

Now that statement may be a self level but based on the read here we have potential dealer on dealer violence. I honestly think a food, while close is not as clear cut as the consensus ITT.

OP, would villain believe you would 4! AK here?
I don't believe he would believe me 4!ing AK normally. He did see me call a 3! All in earlier in the session I had AKs vs JJ. But that was only for $95 or 1/3rd of my stack with no more at risk an I was closing the action.

Since I would not 4! This V (he is NOT a maniac) I have a hard time seeing him believing it. This is why I feel my hand was every bit as much face up as his. Maybe I need to learn to 4! with AK.
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02-23-2016 , 11:48 PM
Btw no insult but for the duration of this thread it is in fact a "food"
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02-27-2016 , 01:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KKingDavid
None of us can become a gifted player without trusting our own reads in live play. It is too emotionally draining to call large bets, dump off lots of chips, and feel like "I knew it!" but refused to trust your read because these forums tell you that it is mandatory to put the villains on range and not exact hands, or the villain is LAG, so maybe, just maybe he doesn't have the nuts, or you just gotta see it to be sure, or whatever other reason.

You won't always be right. That is ok. You won't always be right following the "never folding KK here" advice that dominates this thread.

It's not like OP is required to announce to the table "I just folded KK" and make himself exploitable. His read is based in part on the intangibles at the tables - villains body language, sense of calm or confidence, etc which is based on their history together.

When facing a huge decision, trust your reads!

FWIW, I followed my own advice last night, i.e., to trust your read.

In this case, at a $1/2 private game with all regs, very loose guy opens $12 from UTG+1. I flat with AsQs, two other callers including one of the blinds. Flop A53 rainbow and blind donks $15. Opener calls and I call. Turn A, blind checks, opener bets $30. I call again and blind folds. River K and opener bets $52.

I'm about to snap call but think about my history with this villain. He is mostly passive post-flop, especially slowing down on the river unless he has a monster. Still, how do I fold trip aces with a Q kicker? And the river K makes it less likely that he has AK. I remember this post, decide to trust my read, and fold.

This game has a nightly high hand bonus. Villain shows his AK to qualify for the bonus.

Trust is good. If I had not recalled this thread, I prolly call there.
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02-27-2016 , 05:32 AM
Definitely a food. In this case, it's the late night shwarma from the sketchy looking kebab stand after a night of heavy drinking. It looks so good. You know it will taste fantastic. Things like proper heating temperature of meat, or how long the sauce has been sitting out unrefrigerated on the counter are not on your radar. You are just laser focused on how damn good it will taste.

There is a tiny voice in the back of your head pleading with you not to do it. The voice knows how this will end. But all you can think of is that delicious shwarma and how good it's going to feel cramming it down your throat. You will probably even have two. Yes, definitely two.

The little voice voice is quiet now. It knows it never had a chance, but it tried anyway. It remembers the last time, even if you don't. It knows there is nothing it can do now to prevent your imminently forcible reacquaintance(s) with the toilet bowl at this point.

The little voice just wishes you'd learn one of these days. It will try again next time.
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02-27-2016 , 07:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nice_Guy_Eddie

You're getting about 2:1 and need 33% equity. Villain only needs one Ax combo in addition to six AA combos to make calling profitable.
341 to call, final pot size is 1012 (before rake) so Hero needs 33.7% equity.

Against AA, KK and the remaining two AKs Hero has 32.2% equity. You need to add at least one combo of AKo or QQ to make this a very marginal call, with an EV of ~$5 or ~$35. And then the pot will be raked.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
92,464,416 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KK32.23% 24,664,48810,281,996
AxKx, AA, KK67.77% 57,517,93210,281,996
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