Hero has $250 eff. stacks in MP with 2 Black Aces. 2 limpers and I make it $12 to go. I get BTN, SB, UTG and EP to call.

5 players to the flop and its Ad 8h 4h, everyone checks to me and I bet $55 into a $60 I get EP to call. Turn is the Th and he moves in for about $175.

My read on EP is that he would do this with flushes and AT only. If he had a set of 8's or 4's he would check raise me on the flop. Same goes for hands like A8. I dont think this player would call with TT on this flop, I also think he raises with that hand from EP seat, same for 88. This play doesnt bluff that I have seen, and I dont think he has AT since I have two aces. So that leaves hands like AhXx but I cant see him making this move with these hands, he would check and call with those hands. I ended up folding the hand but I want what others have to say.

fold. you only put in 67, still have like 190 left. easy fold. you beat nothing unless board pair or quad comes.

[QUOTE=I dont think he has AT since I have two aces. So that leaves hands like AhXx[/QUOTE]

lol good read
Any more info on villain? gotta be KQh/KJh IMO

I hate when this happens.. I'd probably fold, unless you have a particular read on this guy, mr mcfold lol

hint: get poker stove and learn how to do a little math. the pot is approx 170. the villian bet 175. sooo you need to call 175 to win 345.

fold pre. you always get sucked out on so it seems mr mcfold

If your at-the-table read is as precise as you break it down in this thread, and you can put him on a range which includes virtually nothing but flushes, then you go with your read and fold, and really don't need to post this.

I am not very good at math its one of my many leaks.

I have aces, I know I am a tight player but i wouldnt fold aces pre flop. Level?

Sorry, at the time it was a tough spot for me, took nearly 5mins to make a decision.

sick re-level mr muck

The river could fill you up Mr. McFold.

Grunch:

FFS, raise more pre, ALL hands! You keep raising to $12-15 and getting 8 million to the flop. At this table, it sounds like you need to start at $15 and add a BB per limper and a BB per position before CO.

AP, I like the flop sizing. Assuming your reads are right that he doesn't take this line with a set, turn is prob a fold, as much as I hate it. He prob has a low flush and shoved here to avoid your call with the Ah. Of course, if you actually *had* the Ah, this would be a snap call with all the extra outs. As it is, you have 9 outs, so you're a bit under 20% to hit. There's enough combos of AT left out there to bring your equity up to 25-38% (depending on how wide you range his l/c range with soooted cards, you have less equity the more XXhh is in his range, since it lowers the % of his range that is AT), but even at the top of that it is a barely +EV call.

Post grunch: Sounds like you weren't so confident in your read after all. If we do no more than ad the sets in there, you go over 50% equity. If he could be doing this with AhX, then the equity really shoots up. If you're not cast iron in your range read, you must call here.

I understand at the time it was difficult. Wasn't coming down on you for this, and you were right to take your time. I was indicating that the forum can't offer you much if you had a physical read that told you that his range is almost solely flushes. You'd simply analyze if it were possible that he were making this play with any other hand, and act accordingly. You clearly felt he binked the flush on the turn, so you went with that.

I think this is a call. Hero needs to be spot on with his read not to have enough equity to call. If Hero had hundreds of hours playing with this villain and knew him to be the fast-playing, nut-peddling type, then perhaps a fold is in order. Absent a rock solid read based on thousands of prior hands, I can't find a fold here with top set. There are a host of semibluff hands and pair + draw hands to go with the flushes, slowplayed two-pairs and lower sets. Hero's hand ranges looks like MUBS.

Basically I do not see enough data to be sold on the flush read to fold top set vs a three-to-a-flush board. We don't have much of a description of V1, making the reads seem even less reliable. I get the impression Hero has limited playing time vs this villain. Because of this I expand the villains range greatly - I think hero might even be slightly better than 50-50. I give Hero more equity than the pot odds he is being offered, so he should call.

DrStrange

since math is not one of your skills - you need to "make it one" - if you are remotely serious about playing winning poker. Get poker stove and start dicking with it...it is free. Since the villian jammed with what was basically a pot sized bet you are getting 2:1 on your $$$. Soo in order for a call to make sense you need to have 33% equity. Folding here is a mistake - plain and simple.

You really need to rethink your betsizing on the flop. You can still give people a bad price to chase their flush with a little bit smaller of a bet. I know on this hand specifically it probably doesnt make a huge difference but to observant players your turning your hand face up...or at least the strength of it.

I give my reads that he would only do this with a flush. Like I said if he 88 or TT he would raise preflop, and even if he did have 88 he would c/r me a whole lot and I dont think this player called my flop bet with TT. If he is drawing to a flush most of the time he would check and call, he plays very much like a calling station. He doesnt bluff or semi bluff that I have seen from him over a good live sample.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,188 games 0.009 secs 131,999 games/sec

Board: Ad 8h 4h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.970% 21.97% 00.00% 261 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 78.030% 78.03% 00.00% 927 0.00 { AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 7h4h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 5h3h, 4h3h, 3h2h }

I dont have the equity needed to call.

I was betting for pure value, why bet less when they call a good pot size bet.

Brilliant logic here.

Anyway, I can't find a fold here. I obviously don't have the read you do, but I've seen too many villains misplay their monster on the flop to see a scary turn and then have a "**** it, i'm all in" moment.

Also, your range discounts all 2 pairs with the Ah, that's 9 combos you need to add. You also have the Th,8h, & 4h in your range for villain (which is obviously impossible since they're on the board.)

Try again with an improved range, and I think you will get much closer to the required odds to call.

mr muck:

this thresd has been a great level on your part. Congrats sir - well played

I also think Mr. Fold's range is a bit narrow. I think AhKx and AhQx are certainly in villain's range. I don't see how I can NOT call here unless I am down to my last $$ on my life roll and I have 1 oz of gas in my car. I'd hate to call my wife to pick me up at the card room because I lost with a set of aces to 75s and I spent even my last $$ on a 2:1 call for all my chips.

You can be betting for pure value here.

If you were then sizing is wrong. So I am going to assume that after the fact you believe that you were doing it for value. If it was for value then $30-40 is the size so we can set up river shoves.

You say the FD out there and thought you didnt want to lose this hand so I am going to bet big. $55 into 60. Now if anyone calls then their hand is face up when facing further action.

55 into 60 with 175 behind doesnt make much sense. You have to overshove the turn. So you have to set up 3 streets of "value" here.
Now we bet $35 into $60 so the pot is 60+35+35=130. Now on the turn he has 195 left so we can bet 75 on the turn and shove rivers.


I am only saying this is its for value! I cant see getting action on my value bets here though with top set of AAA. Maybe middle or bottom set makes more sense to me.

The easiest thing to do in this spot while in the hand is to think... If I have AhXh how am I going to play this? And getting it in is fine 100% of the time IMO. So if thats the case then action isnt that important.