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Flush facing River bet (2-low-paired board)

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11-23-2015 , 11:52 PM

CamNewton3

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 493

Game: Live 1/2
Hand: K9ss
Position: UTG (7-handed)
Stack: 1400$
Villain: Really solid thinking player, Asian 20-25yo, we play together often, I just won a 750$ pot against him an hour ago, but I now he never tilts) He has 600$, MP.

Preflop Action: I 15$ (I haven’t played a hand in a while), V calls, BB calls. (45$)
Flop: 44Tssh
Action: I bet 20$, V calls, BB folds. (85$)
Turn: 6s
Action: I bet 60$, he calls. (205$)
River: 6c
Action: I check, he bets 200$, I?

I don't think he calls with a lot of 4's preflop, and a 6 is really unlikely. Maybe A4s sometimes, 45s sometimes, 44, 66, but I'm not sure... This river bet is huge and I'm not sure what it means neither!

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11-23-2015 , 11:59 PM

feelings

newbie

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 42

Given pre and flop as played, I am probably checking turn.

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11-24-2015 , 01:31 AM

CamNewton3

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 493

Lol to checking turn, I think a 4 is in his range only a very marginal portion of the time at that point...

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11-24-2015 , 02:19 AM

feelings

newbie

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 42

Quote:

Originally Posted by CamNewton3

Lol to checking turn, I think a 4 is in his range only a very marginal portion of the time at that point...

out of position versus a thinking player with a hand that is hard to fold without some sort of soul read. pot control

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11-24-2015 , 10:03 AM

CamNewton3

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 493

You realize I have a flush? lol

Only hand that realisticaly beats me is TT and he probably would have raised flop.

I think I actually should have bet more OTT!

Any other thoughts?

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11-24-2015 , 10:24 AM

Playbig2000

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 13,425

fold pre and as played I'm folding the river in a heart beat

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11-24-2015 , 03:50 PM

wiffle

banned

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 860

fold pre
bet/bet/bet
size your bets bigger

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11-24-2015 , 04:37 PM

SwolyswoND

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,976

I think pre is fine 7-handed, as long as you don't get married to TP on a K-high board.

Agreed that you need to size your bets bigger on each street, and b/f the river, for Christ's sake. What exactly are you expecting him to bluff with on this board that you would c/c? He's way more likely to look you up with Tx or JJ than he is to bet with a worse hand on this river.

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11-24-2015 , 04:58 PM

nrook

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 32

I don't trunk you're going to see a high success rate bluffing people on the flop with bets that small. I would bet 30 here.

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11-24-2015 , 10:09 PM

#10

CamNewton3

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 493

It's just a standard C-bet (1/2 pot), and I don't care getting called on that street with my FD, I should bet more OTT thats right tho

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11-25-2015 , 08:27 AM

#11

feelings

newbie

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 42

Quote:

Originally Posted by CamNewton3

You realize I have a flush? lol

Only hand that realisticaly beats me is TT and he probably would have raised flop.

I think I actually should have bet more OTT!

Any other thoughts?

Checking turn can induce a bluff from a thinking player. Your analysis that the "only hand that realisticaly [sic] beats me is TT" works both ways: insofar as this is a weak board. Thus we often fold him on the turn with a bet. 70.58% is already a big turn bet. Betting bigger on the turn, on this weak board, will fold out even more of the hands from which we want value.

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11-25-2015 , 11:08 AM

#12

SwolyswoND

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,976

Quote:

Originally Posted by CamNewton3

It's just a standard C-bet (1/2 pot), and I don't care getting called on that street with my FD, I should bet more OTT thats right tho

You didn't bet 1/2 pot on the flop, and there is no "standard" c-bet size. You need to adjust for board texture and # of opponents. Flop should have been $30 minimum.

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