Hero has been card dead for about 6 hours, was down $300 and at this point had grinded back to just below even. Blinds are 2/4, table is super limp happy with nobody punishing limpers. Raises to 5bb usually get at least 2 callers.

Hero is in hijack with Qh 7h.
Villain is UTG, effective stacks $400.
Villain has had a few drinks but isn't any more than tipsy, he's one of the more competent players at the table and seems to be a thinking player, but is still a fish (tried to argue with me about odds and seemed to think that folded hole cards didn't affected your outs equity because they are "dead cards")

Villain limps $4, two limpers to me, I call, cutoff and button calls, blinds complete. I don't raise to isolate here because the table is too loose to take down the blinds often enough, and I can limp profitably because nobody at the table punishes limpers. (Well maybe not that profitably but hero is frustrated at not getting any hands so Q 7 s looks like gin)

Flop: Q 7 J r

Blinds check, UTG bets $15, fold, guy to my right calls, I raise to $45, folds to UTG who calls, fold.

Turn: 5d putting diamond draw on the board.

UTG bets out $80, Hero flat calls.

River: brick 4

Villain checks, Hero tanks and checks.


Thinking the hand through, I think shoving the turn was an option, but I really thought the only hand he could have here at that point was 77, QJ, QK, or J7 and a shove would push out all the hands I beat. Against a more spewy player I would probably min raise and shove river.

On the river I thought a value bet was very marginal. At this point he either had a monster, or QKdd and couldn't pay off much.

Main question should I have been a man and stuck out $75 value bet on the river? Biggest thing running through my head was the way the hand played out and his reluctantly river check, was that he put me on a strong hand of at least two pair, so he either had a weak one pair hand or a monster looking to check raise.

Unless you see what the cards are when they are folded, they do not affect your outs calculations.

If I take a deck, and remove 2 cards from it, what are the odds that the card on top is the ace of spades? 1 in 52, or 1 in 50?

I think shoving the turn here is pretty bad - I can't think of a worse hand that calls... or a better hand that folds.

I probably check back the river.

Preflop is marginal, but I'd do the same thing if I'd been card dead. I'm also a value betting whore. I'd do it in this spot, hoping to get called by any Q. I think another $80 bet gets a crying call.

Exactly, I was saying in a diff hand that i had 9 outs out of 45 cards, and he was saying no, if you count all the dealt hands its 9 out of like 36....just an idiot. I didn't bother correcting him.

Koss, I was on the fence between checking the river and $60-85 bet.

Oh my goodness,

this is a PERFECT SITUATION FOR THE VALUE BET.

Villain in this spot has AQ, KQ, QT, Q9, Q8, AJ, KJ, JT, J7...

Sure, sets and QJ are in his range as well, but given that he didn't bet out on river, he doesn't have it.

You got 2 pair with the top pair, trust me, value bet like a MOFO.

The more you value bet, the more surprised you will be at what calls you. I value bet edges so thin you could shave with them. I've value betted 4 to a flush boards with 3rd nut and will get called down by the 5th flush or even a straight or two pair LOL.

I value bet here $100 and expect to get a crying call from villain with AQ, KQ, or even a QT, J7 type hand.

Villain's line is super wierd. I guess he could play AQ or KQ this way. I think river is a vb/fold.

btw, I learned a new player type today: the "competent fish". me likes oxymorons.

fold pre, ****** hand going to be multiway, where you will most likely be OOP.

On flop you hit a miracle, only hand you are really worried about is QJ, on the flop make it 65, there are tons of worse hands/draws he can call with. Shove turn, the 5d is a complete blank, and you have a very strong hand against a very bad player. Checking back the river is so terribly weak.

The turn is actually a very interesting spot regarding whether or not its best to shove. If stacks were a little deeper raising turn would definitely be bad. But with these stacks its actually a close decision. I think it would be villain dependent (ie. do we think hed call with worse; could he possibly be playing a big draw this way and do we need to worry about protecting the pot, etc.)

Stacks are 100bb, and due to card removal villain only has one hand that has us beat. I don't understand how close a decision it is.

EZ betaments.

Easy game....pretty sure he never has two pair here...

Value bet this for sure....looks like a kq type hand and he picked up a diamond draw.....I personally flat the flop and raise the turn.

1) This isnt true. Theres six combos of QJ, one of 77, and if he ever limps JJ here theres combos of that is well. I'm pretty sure that totals up to > one hand that beats us.

2) Given V's line he may well have one of these hands (I use the bet-call-donk line alot with big hands, esp live). We have to look at more than just our own hand strength. We still have 90bb behind ott.

3) Regarding whether or not to shove turn, its not only about whether or not we have the best hand, its about whether or not we think V has a worse hand that will call. Or its about whether or not we need to protect the pot vs hands that have outs against us. To determine this we need to put V on a range, preferably an acutely weighted one.

4) All that said, shoving turn may be the best play. But I dont think its completely cut and dry. We would need to know a bit more about V's tendencies imo. As a default vs a complete unknown, being IP I'd call and play a river.

Well OP said he's a fish....so I discsount those hands because every live fish can't hold back....and there's no way he checks river....shovings pretty thin but probably only.choice given stacks.


Also to avoid this raise turn.

I still believe he had some pair like q maybe kq and picked up the diamond draw.. if he's really that strong he c/r turn all day. This is a pretty straightforward hand now that I think about it...his turn bet is a donkey bet and nothing more.