The answer to this is depend on if you can bet/fold if he ships. I personally have trouble with that and would just check back the river. Admittadely, the optimal play is typically to value bet, if you have no problem bet/folding and don't go on tilt when guy shows a bluff in your face. However, knowing myself I would check, as I would #1) have trouble bet/folding and #2) would be on tilt if dude showed two pair turned into a bluff...

Gotta raise the turn b/c too many bad cards on the river homie

+1 to everything

I think whether or not to raise the turn depends on villains preflop calling range.

If he is playing a more typical 20-25% of his hands to raise, then he usually has very few straights in his range (as few as 4 combos), thus the turn must be a raise.

If he is playing 60% or more, then I would advocate a call because 96s, 96o, and J9o (a total of 32 combos) will show up more often.

A lot of bad cards can come on the river (like this one) that kill your action.
I think you lose value against his entire range here by just flatting. Also in some ways flatting a check/raise can look stronger than just getting it in to a lot of regs. Especially if you have an aggressive image I think you have to ship the turn. If he is playing 69 like this, he is playing a lot of two pairs and worse sets exactly the same way. And it appears obviouse that his pre calling range is so wide that he has virtually every two pair/set combo in this spot. Like 77 is almost as likely as 88. Imo your letting him off of the hook. 1010 is strong enough to get it in here vs his range without a doubt.

I disagree with a lot of above posters.

First, I like your bet sizing on the flop and the turn. You are trying to get value, which you will get from a lot of hands here. Plus, you are underrepping your hand which means that a lot of two pair hands are going to raise you on the turn. Especially because the board gives two pair to a lot of hands in villain's range. So, I like how you played the hand actually.

I like just flatting the turn. If you are no good, you can boat. If you boat and he had a straight a bad player will still probably call 250 or so on the river. If you are good and the river is a blank he will bet again with a stunningly large portion of his range. Then he will feel priced in when you shove. Absolutely, I call the turn and shove the river when he bets again.

You got a card that superficially looks bad, but really doesn't change anything. After raising turn and then checking river, it is safe to say he probably doesn't have the 9. I think he much more likely has two pair here and is scared of higher two pair, sets, and straights. I like a bet of 225 or so here on the river. I think you get called by worse a fairly high amount of the time and he almost never shows up here with a better hand.

I just don't see villains getting 200bb here with less than QT (Maybe) or 88 here in my games. If we were a bit shallower I am fistpumping bc I get calls from 2P+ always.

I think THIS is basically what is comes down to as to what the correct play is on the turn. We need to correctly range him in terms of combos on his preflop limp/call range.

ok here is range of your specific 1010 vs all combos of j9,69, and two pairs/worse sets. Removing half the combos of the two pairs with the ten in them. I think this is very conservative actually b/c I think (and I think most would agree, that probably in reality half of his j9 combos will check/raise on the flop. Regardless this is what we have:


Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.058% 52.06% 00.00% 1214 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 47.942% 47.94% 00.00% 1118 0.00 { ThTs, 88-77, QhTh, QsTs, Q8s, J9s, Th8h, Ts8s, Th7h, Ts7s, 96s, QcTh, QcTs, QdTh, QdTs, QhTs, QsTh, Q8o, J9o, Tc8h, Tc8s, Td8h, Td8s, Th8s, Ts8h, Tc7h, Tc7s, Td7h, Td7s, Th7s, Ts7h, 96o }

So it does seem close, but personally I would lead towards the aggressive route here. You are value owning him slightly more than you are valuecutting yourself.


You really don't have to see it. You just have to help them to see it. When we have such a massive hand the goal is to set bet sizes up so that we can eventually play for stacks. And I think you admit part of the issue here is with your sizing. If flop turn were slightly bigger, then perhaps you would now see villain committed when he check/raises vs the current situation.





It's profitable on the turn. Money is left on the table. The fish is putting his money in on the turn, give him a helping hand while two pair is looking good to him. This board is actually pretty connected so a baby two pair will look to get it in to protect but can get scared on a lot of rivers. HOw many times do you see people check/raise/fold?
FWIW, later on in the session I saw him c/call all the way down to small/medium bets with 66 on a 10c5c2x 8c 9x board.[/QUOTE]

Great, this is evidence and reasoning to get it in on the turn. Shows he is loose passive station willing to calldown light.

This is counterproductive thinking, IMO.

Villain has equity in the pot. Given the texture of the flop, he probably has a fairly good amount of equity.

But, Hero has more equity then villain does.

Whether or not villain calls a big bet on the turn is really a subordinate point. This is one of those spots where we should be just as happy to have villain fold his equity as we would be to have villain stack off.

Obviously we'd love to have villain stack off here, but in the long run we'll win more money by getting villain(s) to fold their equity in this spot.