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Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play

09-05-2013 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool

Can I bet ~$200 for value against his 2 pair hands? He has $650 back.
The answer to this is depend on if you can bet/fold if he ships. I personally have trouble with that and would just check back the river. Admittadely, the optimal play is typically to value bet, if you have no problem bet/folding and don't go on tilt when guy shows a bluff in your face. However, knowing myself I would check, as I would #1) have trouble bet/folding and #2) would be on tilt if dude showed two pair turned into a bluff...

Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote
09-05-2013 , 04:21 PM
Gotta raise the turn b/c too many bad cards on the river homie
Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote
09-05-2013 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaYu
Grunch

I like flatting the raise. As you stated, re-raising is an overplay.

And yea, I'd bomb the flop. It's one of those spots where betting closer to full pot is best, since any hands that touched the flop are calling. If both villains whiffed, they weren't calling a half pot bet anyways.
+1 to everything
Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote
09-05-2013 , 04:48 PM
I think whether or not to raise the turn depends on villains preflop calling range.

If he is playing a more typical 20-25% of his hands to raise, then he usually has very few straights in his range (as few as 4 combos), thus the turn must be a raise.

If he is playing 60% or more, then I would advocate a call because 96s, 96o, and J9o (a total of 32 combos) will show up more often.
Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote
09-06-2013 , 09:40 AM
A lot of bad cards can come on the river (like this one) that kill your action.
I think you lose value against his entire range here by just flatting. Also in some ways flatting a check/raise can look stronger than just getting it in to a lot of regs. Especially if you have an aggressive image I think you have to ship the turn. If he is playing 69 like this, he is playing a lot of two pairs and worse sets exactly the same way. And it appears obviouse that his pre calling range is so wide that he has virtually every two pair/set combo in this spot. Like 77 is almost as likely as 88. Imo your letting him off of the hook. 1010 is strong enough to get it in here vs his range without a doubt.
Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote
09-06-2013 , 10:17 AM
I disagree with a lot of above posters.

First, I like your bet sizing on the flop and the turn. You are trying to get value, which you will get from a lot of hands here. Plus, you are underrepping your hand which means that a lot of two pair hands are going to raise you on the turn. Especially because the board gives two pair to a lot of hands in villain's range. So, I like how you played the hand actually.

I like just flatting the turn. If you are no good, you can boat. If you boat and he had a straight a bad player will still probably call 250 or so on the river. If you are good and the river is a blank he will bet again with a stunningly large portion of his range. Then he will feel priced in when you shove. Absolutely, I call the turn and shove the river when he bets again.

You got a card that superficially looks bad, but really doesn't change anything. After raising turn and then checking river, it is safe to say he probably doesn't have the 9. I think he much more likely has two pair here and is scared of higher two pair, sets, and straights. I like a bet of 225 or so here on the river. I think you get called by worse a fairly high amount of the time and he almost never shows up here with a better hand.
Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote
09-06-2013 , 11:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ozmosis313
A lot of bad cards can come on the river (like this one) that kill your action.
I think you lose value against his entire range here by just flatting. Also in some ways flatting a check/raise can look stronger than just getting it in to a lot of regs. Especially if you have an aggressive image I think you have to ship the turn. If he is playing 69 like this, he is playing a lot of two pairs and worse sets exactly the same way. And it appears obviouse that his pre calling range is so wide that he has virtually every two pair/set combo in this spot. Like 77 is almost as likely as 88. Imo your letting him off of the hook. 1010 is strong enough to get it in here vs his range without a doubt.
I just don't see villains getting 200bb here with less than QT (Maybe) or 88 here in my games. If we were a bit shallower I am fistpumping bc I get calls from 2P+ always.
Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote
09-06-2013 , 11:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DreamIsDestiny
I think whether or not to raise the turn depends on villains preflop calling range.

If he is playing a more typical 20-25% of his hands to raise, then he usually has very few straights in his range (as few as 4 combos), thus the turn must be a raise.

If he is playing 60% or more, then I would advocate a call because 96s, 96o, and J9o (a total of 32 combos) will show up more often.
I think THIS is basically what is comes down to as to what the correct play is on the turn. We need to correctly range him in terms of combos on his preflop limp/call range.
Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote
09-06-2013 , 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
I think THIS is basically what is comes down to as to what the correct play is on the turn. We need to correctly range him in terms of combos on his preflop limp/call range.

ok here is range of your specific 1010 vs all combos of j9,69, and two pairs/worse sets. Removing half the combos of the two pairs with the ten in them. I think this is very conservative actually b/c I think (and I think most would agree, that probably in reality half of his j9 combos will check/raise on the flop. Regardless this is what we have:


Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.058% 52.06% 00.00% 1214 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 47.942% 47.94% 00.00% 1118 0.00 { ThTs, 88-77, QhTh, QsTs, Q8s, J9s, Th8h, Ts8s, Th7h, Ts7s, 96s, QcTh, QcTs, QdTh, QdTs, QhTs, QsTh, Q8o, J9o, Tc8h, Tc8s, Td8h, Td8s, Th8s, Ts8h, Tc7h, Tc7s, Td7h, Td7s, Th7s, Ts7h, 96o }

So it does seem close, but personally I would lead towards the aggressive route here. You are value owning him slightly more than you are valuecutting yourself.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
I just don't see villains getting 200bb here with less than QT (Maybe) or 88 here in my games. If we were a bit shallower I am fistpumping bc I get calls from 2P+ always.
You really don't have to see it. You just have to help them to see it. When we have such a massive hand the goal is to set bet sizes up so that we can eventually play for stacks. And I think you admit part of the issue here is with your sizing. If flop turn were slightly bigger, then perhaps you would now see villain committed when he check/raises vs the current situation.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
I got in a hand last night where my friend and I disagree on what the optimal play is on the turn. Clearly one of the OESD gets there, but he thinks its a bet/raise get it in, and I argue we are too deep to do this.

I would lean towards the bet/raise get it in camp.




both call.

(Pot $75) Flop comes out QT8
V2 checks, hero bets $40, V1 folds, v2 thinks and calls.

Admittedly I think $45-50 is optimal since we are going to get value from Qx, AJo, Tx, T9, JT, J9, KJ, 69, etc.

(Pot: $155) Turn is the 7 completing the rainbow

V2 checks, Hero bets $85, villain raises to $205, hero?

Obviously we are calling at minimal.

Here's what my friend said: There are plenty of 2pair combos in his range and he isn't folding them. [/B

I definitely agree. turn should be much bigger though. If turn is more like 110, suddenly check/raise is much larger and villain is committed. This more than makes up your 50bb difference where you think 150bb is fistpump get it in but 190-200bb is too deep.
Quote:
My thoughts: Since we are about 200bb I think a shove might fold the weaker end and only continue with hands like 69,J9,88, maybe QT (he might even raise 88 preflop).

If a turn shove is folding these hands (weaker two pairs that is) then you are not going to be able to stack him on a lot of rivers. ESpecially his weaker two pairs. A lot of infact most rivers make a small two pair look a lot worse than it does on the turn. Additionally as someone mentioned. Who says you have to shove. You can just click it back and build up the pot and sometimes he will spazz shove on you anyways. When villains check/raise turn it's always a hand they believe to be the relative nuts and they are usually going with it. a click back will always get at least called and make up for the previous sizing setting you up nicely to get stacks in on some rivers.
[B]However if we call we can still get value from 2 pair on lots of rivers

-disagree here. the same two pair you are worried about folding turn will get scared on a lot of rivers. Not just like as is the case here but probably any broadway card/board pair as well.
Quote:
and the times we get coolered, I can still boat up. Minus J9, 69 we have the effective nuts.

This logic can apply just as well on the turn. If your coolered you will always still have equity in the hand. For the same reason villain may commit with two pair. "well, if you got me you got me, I can always redraw"


Quote:
I called. If we were 150bb or less, I feel I can reship and get 2pairs to call me off always. and I always have equity.
-190bb is not that much deeper especially if we bet larger or clickback turn.

(Pot: $565)
River is the J
Villain checks,
Hero?

[QUOTE]Can I bet ~$200 for value against his 2 pair hands? He has $650 back.

Pros: we beat the entire range overall

Cons: 4 liner to the straight, don't know how often he calls with 2 pair.

one of the many rivers that make it more difficult to get value from his worse hands.

This is exactly why it's better to get it in on the turn. Especially vs the weaker two pair which may even shutdown on some high cards after you coldcall a checkraise.

I hate leaving money on the table, and don't mind value cutting myself if it's profitable.

It's profitable on the turn. Money is left on the table. The fish is putting his money in on the turn, give him a helping hand while two pair is looking good to him. This board is actually pretty connected so a baby two pair will look to get it in to protect but can get scared on a lot of rivers. HOw many times do you see people check/raise/fold?
FWIW, later on in the session I saw him c/call all the way down to small/medium bets with 66 on a 10c5c2x 8c 9x board.[/QUOTE]

Great, this is evidence and reasoning to get it in on the turn. Shows he is loose passive station willing to calldown light.

Last edited by ozmosis313; 09-06-2013 at 12:48 PM.
Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote
09-06-2013 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
I just don't see villains getting 200bb here with less than QT (Maybe) or 88 here in my games. If we were a bit shallower I am fistpumping bc I get calls from 2P+ always.
This is counterproductive thinking, IMO.

Villain has equity in the pot. Given the texture of the flop, he probably has a fairly good amount of equity.

But, Hero has more equity then villain does.

Whether or not villain calls a big bet on the turn is really a subordinate point. This is one of those spots where we should be just as happy to have villain fold his equity as we would be to have villain stack off.

Obviously we'd love to have villain stack off here, but in the long run we'll win more money by getting villain(s) to fold their equity in this spot.
Flop a set on flop 190BB, suggestions for turn / river play Quote

      
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