Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
I think THIS is basically what is comes down to as to what the correct play is on the turn. We need to correctly range him in terms of combos on his preflop limp/call range.
ok here is range of your specific 1010 vs all combos of j9,69, and two pairs/worse sets. Removing half the combos of the two pairs with the ten in them. I think this is very conservative actually b/c I think (and I think most would agree, that probably in reality half of his j9 combos will check/raise on the flop. Regardless this is what we have:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.058% 52.06% 00.00% 1214 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 47.942% 47.94% 00.00% 1118 0.00 { ThTs, 88-77, QhTh, QsTs, Q8s, J9s, Th8h, Ts8s, Th7h, Ts7s, 96s, QcTh, QcTs, QdTh, QdTs, QhTs, QsTh, Q8o, J9o, Tc8h, Tc8s, Td8h, Td8s, Th8s, Ts8h, Tc7h, Tc7s, Td7h, Td7s, Th7s, Ts7h, 96o }
So it does seem close, but personally I would lead towards the aggressive route here. You are value owning him slightly more than you are valuecutting yourself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
I just don't see villains getting 200bb here with less than QT (Maybe) or 88 here in my games. If we were a bit shallower I am fistpumping bc I get calls from 2P+ always.
You really don't have to see it. You just have to help them to see it. When we have such a massive hand the goal is to set bet sizes up so that we can eventually play for stacks. And I think you admit part of the issue here is with your sizing. If flop turn were slightly bigger, then perhaps you would now see villain committed when he check/raises vs the current situation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool
I got in a hand last night where my friend and I disagree on what the optimal play is on the turn. Clearly one of the OESD gets there, but he thinks its a bet/raise get it in, and I argue we are too deep to do this.
I would lean towards the bet/raise get it in camp.
both call.
(Pot $75) Flop comes out Q
T
8
V2 checks, hero bets $40, V1 folds, v2 thinks and calls.
Admittedly I think $45-50 is optimal since we are going to get value from Qx, AJo, Tx, T9, JT, J9, KJ, 69, etc.
(Pot: $155) Turn is the 7
completing the rainbow
V2 checks, Hero bets $85, villain raises to $205, hero?
Obviously we are calling at minimal.
Here's what my friend said: There are plenty of 2pair combos in his range and he isn't folding them. [/B
I definitely agree. turn should be much bigger though. If turn is more like 110, suddenly check/raise is much larger and villain is committed. This more than makes up your 50bb difference where you think 150bb is fistpump get it in but 190-200bb is too deep.
Quote:
My thoughts: Since we are about 200bb I think a shove might fold the weaker end and only continue with hands like 69,J9,88, maybe QT (he might even raise 88 preflop).
If a turn shove is folding these hands (weaker two pairs that is) then you are not going to be able to stack him on a lot of rivers. ESpecially his weaker two pairs. A lot of infact most rivers make a small two pair look a lot worse than it does on the turn. Additionally as someone mentioned. Who says you have to shove. You can just click it back and build up the pot and sometimes he will spazz shove on you anyways. When villains check/raise turn it's always a hand they believe to be the relative nuts and they are usually going with it. a click back will always get at least called and make up for the previous sizing setting you up nicely to get stacks in on some rivers.
[B]However if we call we can still get value from 2 pair on lots of rivers
-disagree here. the same two pair you are worried about folding turn will get scared on a lot of rivers. Not just like as is the case here but probably any broadway card/board pair as well.
Quote:
and the times we get coolered, I can still boat up. Minus J9, 69 we have the effective nuts.
This logic can apply just as well on the turn. If your coolered you will always still have equity in the hand. For the same reason villain may commit with two pair. "well, if you got me you got me, I can always redraw"
Quote:
I called. If we were 150bb or less, I feel I can reship and get 2pairs to call me off always. and I always have equity.
-190bb is not that much deeper especially if we bet larger or clickback turn.
(Pot: $565)
River is the J
Villain checks,
Hero?
[QUOTE]Can I bet ~$200 for value against his 2 pair hands? He has $650 back.
Pros: we beat the entire range overall
Cons: 4 liner to the straight, don't know how often he calls with 2 pair.
one of the many rivers that make it more difficult to get value from his worse hands.
This is exactly why it's better to get it in on the turn. Especially vs the weaker two pair which may even shutdown on some high cards after you coldcall a checkraise.
I hate leaving money on the table, and don't mind value cutting myself if it's profitable.
It's profitable on the turn. Money is left on the table. The fish is putting his money in on the turn, give him a helping hand while two pair is looking good to him. This board is actually pretty connected so a baby two pair will look to get it in to protect but can get scared on a lot of rivers. HOw many times do you see people check/raise/fold?
FWIW, later on in the session I saw him c/call all the way down to small/medium bets with 66 on a 10c5c2x 8c 9x board.[/QUOTE]
Great, this is evidence and reasoning to get it in on the turn. Shows he is loose passive station willing to calldown light.
Last edited by ozmosis313; 09-06-2013 at 12:48 PM.